Demographic projections for NUTS2 regions in EU countries based on national probabilistic population projection

This report presents results of the projected population of the EU countries at the NUTS2 level for four PLUREL scenarios: A1-hyper-tech, A2-extreme water, B1-peak oil, B2-fragmentation. We utilise data at the national level from a probabilistic population projection of EU27 countries. The initial data at the NUTS2 level comes from Eurostat and the national statistical agencies of France and the UK. For each PLUREL scenario, a likely future trajectory for each of the various demographic components, namely fertility, mortality, international migration and internal migration, are assessed at the national and NUTS2 levels. The likely future demographic trajectories for each PLUREL scenario are then used to find the closest match with the demographic scenarios at the national and NUTS2 levels in the available data. The final projections at the NUTS2 level for the four PLUREL scenarios are prepared by merging the two sets of data, namely the national level probabilistic population projection and the projection at the NUTS2 level, ensuring the internal consistency in terms of age-sex structure at the two levels of aggregation.

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