Namibia's Future: Modeling Population and Sustainable Development Challenges in the Era of HIV/AIDS

Namibia is a young country, having achieved its independence only 11 years ago. It is a land of great potential. The extent to which this potential will be realized is dominated by one issue, the effects of HIV/AIDS. Currently, Namibia has one of the highest HIV/AIDS prevalence rates in the world. In 2001, around 18,000 or about 1% of Namibia's population will die of AIDS. This number will almost double in the next 10 years. Even with significant changes in behavior, our model shows that over half a million Namibians will die of AIDS from 2002 to 2021. This is roughly a third of Namibia's current population. This report summarizes our findings on how HIV/AIDS will influence population, development, and environment interactions in Namibia during the next two decades.

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