Botswana's Future: Modeling Population and Sustainable Development Challenges in the Era of HIV/AIDS

One element dominates current discussions of Botswana's future, the problem of HIV/AIDS. Currently, Botswana has one of the highest HIV/AIDS prevalence rates in the world. We estimate that during the period from 1993 through 2001 there were around 130,000 deaths from HIV/AIDS. In 2001 alone, we expect that roughly 32,000 Botswana or about 2% of the country's population will die of that disease. Even with significant changes in behavior, our model shows that around 540,000 Botswana, a number equivalent to about one-third of the country's current population, will die of HIV/AIDS during the two-decade period 2002-2021.

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