Optimal mitigation strategies with negative emission technologies and carbon sinks under uncertainty

In recent years a body of literature has arisen on the topic of how to compose the optimal portfolio of mitigation options. The focus has been mainly on options involving shifts from high- to low- or even negative-carbon technologies. Natural sinks play an important role in any attempt to stabilize atmospheric CO2 and usually enter as a constant term in the overall carbon budget. In this paper, we introduce natural sinks to the carbon management problem and analyze the implications for negative emission technology deployment and the overall mitigation strategy. Amongst other sensitivity analyses, we also investigate the impact of uncertainty in the carbon sink, which we find to raise the importance of negative emissions in the mitigation portfolio significantly lowering the cost of the policy mix.

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