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Lessons from the history of technological change for clean energy scenarios and policies

Authors: Wilson C, Grubler A

Publication Year: 2011

Reference: Natural Resources Forum, 35(3):165-184 (August 2011) (Published online 21 June 2011)

Abstract

This paper provides a synthesis of current knowledge on the patterns, drivers, and characteristics of historical energy technology transitions. This historical evidence is then compared to the treatment of energy system dynamics in the scenario analysis on climate mitigation. The paper concludes with a discussion of generic implications for clean energy and technology innovation policy.
KEYWORDS: Energy; Technology; Innovation; Transitions; Scenarios; Policy