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On energy systems historically and in the next centuries

Authors: Marchetti C

Publication Year: 2011

Reference: Human Evolution: An International Journal, 26(3-4):181-194 (July-December 2011)

International Institute for Humankind Studies. Available at www.pontecorboli.com/antropologia/he_info

Abstract

The historical dynamics of primary energy sources and the way energy is used are analyzed quantitatively with logistic models that permit forecasting. Very clear and stable patterns appear that may help planning the system on the long term. The future is seen as moving to natural gas and nuclear as primary energy sources and hydrogen plus electricity as the energy vectors vehiculating energy to the final consumers. This evolutionary process may take 100 years for its full materialization.
KEYWORDS: Energy sources; Energy system; Historical dynamics