Modeling current and future N2O emissions from agriculture in China and the effect of nitrification inhibitors

Based on the results of a livestock and crop production model, the GAINS model was applied to simulate agricultural N2O emissions in China. Data available from Chinese provinces were applied for a time horizon of 30 years from 2000 to 2030 with 5-year time steps. Results demonstrate an increasing trend of agricultural N2O emissions from 2000 to 2030 as a result of the increasing quantities of livestock and N-fertilizer use. Total agricultural N2O emissions in 2000 are 1533 kt N2O for an INMIC_central scenario, with an increase of 31% by 2030. N2O emissions from cropland are 1258 kt N2O in 2030, accounting for 80% of total agricultural N2O emissions, with an increase of 37%. N2O emissions from manure management only increased 3% by 2030. Agricultural N2O emissions mainly come from provinces including Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Hunan, Yunnan, and Anhui. As a mitigation measure, nitrification inhibitors will reduce agricultural N2O emissions by 4-16%.
KEYWORDS: GAINS; Agriculture; N2O emissions; Nitrification inhibitors

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