Compliance and emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for uncertain inventories

A solution is proposed for proving compliance with emission targets and for emissions trading in the event of uncertainties in reported emission inventories. The solution is based on the undershooting concept, from which the mathematical conditions for both proving compliance with a risk a and calculating effective emissions for trading are derived. Based on the reported emission units, the number of permits granted is reduced in proportion to the uncertainty in the inventory. A country whose inventory has higher uncertainty is thereby allotted fewer permits than a country with the same inventory but smaller uncertainty.

KEYWORDS: greenhouse gas inventory uncertainty; compliance with Kyoto Protocol; risk of noncompliance; undershooting; emissions trading; effective tradable permits

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