The century ahead

The twentieth century was, above all else, a century of population growth; the twenty-=rst century will be a century of aging. Between 1900 and 2000 the worlds population quadrupled, from around 1.5 billion to over 6 billion. Most of this increase occurred after World War II. At present, it seems unlikely that the population will grow by more than about a further 50 percent. The most plausible forecasts see a population numbering between 9 and 10 billion by about 2050, with stability or decline in total population thereafter. However, the population at older ages will increase far more quickly in the coming century than in the last. Indeed, the end of population growth and its replacement by aging are logically related. All rapidly growing populations are young. If each birth cohort is larger than the one before, there will always be plenty of young people....

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