On long-term forecasting of social security: A robustness analysis

In this paper we present a macro-economic demographic growth model having a special focus on social security. It is designed to study the variability of responses of the system in presence of risks and uncertainties. Here we analyze the robustness of the model towards uncertainties in parameter specifications, introduced by ARCH-M models with the incorporation of intervention processes. The parameters varied are labor force participation rates (one of the key sources of uncertainty in the social security policy debate), and the parameters of the production function (the key source of uncertainty in any long-run economic analysis). The sensitivity analysis focuses on two variables: assets of the private pension system and the balance of the public "Pay As You Go" pension system. Special attention is given to convergence properties of the macro-economic model.
KEYWORDS: Social security forecasting; Structural changes; Misspecification; Robustness

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