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Planning sustainable agricultural development under risks

Authors: Fischer G, Ermolieva T, Sun L

Publication Year: 2010

Reference: In Coping with Uncertainty: Robust Solutions, K. Marti, Y. Ermoliev, M. Makowski (eds)
Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, Germany pp.209-227

[ISBN 978-3-642-03734-4]

Abstract

In this paper we show that explicit treatment of risks and uncertainties is an essential element in planning sustainable agricultural development. Introduction of risks and uncertainties in production models considerably alter strategies for achieving robust outcomes. We discuss stochastic models that may assist to derive optimal agricultural production allocation and expansion within environmental and health risk indicators. Approaches are illustrated with the example of spatially-explicit livestock production allocation in China to 2030.