Environmental mortality and long-run growth

There is emerging evidence that environmental degradation increases human mortality. This paper provides a long-run consumer optimization model in which mortality is endogenous to emissions generated by production. Emissions are assumed to follow the EKC path, first rising and the falling along with output. In the optimum, some deaths are accepted as an exchange for consumption. The model is estimated for the European outdoor air pollution data, showing that Europe has reached the downward sloping segment of the EKC. Economic growth will thus decrease rather than increase pollution in the future. Nevertheless, continuous population growth may increase the number of deaths in some countries.

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