The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture. Vol. 2: Assessments in Semi-Arid Regions

Detailed results are reported from the international project on the impact of climatic variations on agriculture, funded jointly by the U.N. Environment Programme and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, with additional support from the United Nations University. Six case studies in semi-arid regions (including northeast Brazil, Ecuador, India, European USSR and Australia) brought together climatologists, agronomists, agricultural economists and national planners. The studies trace the complex linkages between climate-related impacts and biophysical, economic and social systems. A hierarchy of models of systems was adopted and experiments were performed with this hierarchy for a number of climatic scenarios of short-term and long-term climatic changes. Three sets of models simulate in turn the climatic change, the first-order impacts on crop yields of livestock production, and the second-order responses of the wider agricultural and socio-economic sectors. It is possible, by considering credible future scenarios, to identify a range of probable climate-induced effects on food production, as well as suitable adjustments to agricultural and supporting activities fort managing the associated risks.
KEYWORDS: TROPAG; Zea mays Hordeum vulgare Triticum aestivum; environmental relationships; climatic change; agricultural production; semi arid zone