Generalized Urn Schemes and Technological Dynamics
Authors: Dosi G, Ermoliev YM, Kaniovski YM
Publication Year: 1991
Reference: IIASA Working Paper WP-91-009
Abstract
Adaptive (path dependent) processes of growth modeled by urn schemes are important for several fields of applications: biology, physics, chemistry, economics.
In this paper several macroeconomic models of technological dynamics are studied by the means of adaptive processes of growth. One of the models tackles the case when there is a separation within the pool of adopters which can be interpreted as the outcome of adaptive learning on the features of the new technologies by imperfectly informed agents. Others deal with dependence of final market shares of two technologies on the pricing policies of the firms which produce them. The stochasticity of the processes is caused by some mixed strategies used by the adopters or/and imperfectness of the information which they posses. To study these conceptual problems some modifications of the basic results concerning the generalized urn scheme are given.
In this paper several macroeconomic models of technological dynamics are studied by the means of adaptive processes of growth. One of the models tackles the case when there is a separation within the pool of adopters which can be interpreted as the outcome of adaptive learning on the features of the new technologies by imperfectly informed agents. Others deal with dependence of final market shares of two technologies on the pricing policies of the firms which produce them. The stochasticity of the processes is caused by some mixed strategies used by the adopters or/and imperfectness of the information which they posses. To study these conceptual problems some modifications of the basic results concerning the generalized urn scheme are given.