Future Regional Population Patterns in the Soviet Union: Scenarios to the Year 2050

At the moment the Asian republics of the Soviet Union are at different stages of their demographic transition from "pre-modern" high fertility levels to "modern" low fertility while the Western parts of the Soviet Union are already past this transition and exhibit even sub-replacement fertility. Any population projection should take account of this apparent heterogeneity. As compared to the conventional low-, medium-, and high-variant approach to population projection the scenario approach chosen in this paper has the advantage that it can more directly point at the consequences of different assumptions on future paths in the individual republics of the Soviet Union.

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