A Descriptive Model of Choice for Siting Facilities
Authors: Kunreuther HC, Lathrop JW, Linnerooth J
Publication Year: 1982
Reference: IIASA Working Paper WP-82-018
Abstract
The siting of facilities for large-scale, novel technologies presents a formidable challenge to political risk management. This paper develops a model for describing the decision process for this type of societal problem. It explicitly considers the role of the relevant interested parties, each of whom brings to the siting debate its own set of objectives and attributes. We have labeled the approach a multi-attribute multi-party model (MAMP) to distinguish it from prescriptive techniques such as multi-attribute utility analysis or decision analysis.
The MAMP model is a natural extension of the burgeoning literature on the key role that limited time, attention and information processing capabilities play in political decision making when there are uncertain outcomes and likely conflicts among interested parties. The model also highlights the importance of decentralized and sequential decision making and indicates the role that formal risk assessments have played at each stage of the process. We illustrate its application in the context of the decision process associated with a proposed liquefied natural gas terminal in California. The concluding portion of the paper suggests future research needs for improving the credibility of analysis and facilitating collective action with respect to facility siting problems.
The MAMP model is a natural extension of the burgeoning literature on the key role that limited time, attention and information processing capabilities play in political decision making when there are uncertain outcomes and likely conflicts among interested parties. The model also highlights the importance of decentralized and sequential decision making and indicates the role that formal risk assessments have played at each stage of the process. We illustrate its application in the context of the decision process associated with a proposed liquefied natural gas terminal in California. The concluding portion of the paper suggests future research needs for improving the credibility of analysis and facilitating collective action with respect to facility siting problems.