Multiregional Methods for Subnational Population Projections
Abstract
Most projections of urban and rural populations are generated by models that are fundamentally nonspatial and uniregional in character. Migration streams are treated as net flows, and urban and rural populations are projected independently of each other. This paper argues for a multiregional spatial perspective that incorporates directional gross migration flows. Differences between the two approaches are identified and problems of bias and inconsistency are discussed.