Global Long-term Energy-Economy-Environment Scenarios with an Emphasis on Russia

This paper describes two research projects carried out by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) within the framework of IIASA Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Program and IIASA's Dynamic Systems (DYN) Program in collaboration with leading groups in Russia. One project aims at elucidating Russia's opportunities and prospects stemming from participation in the Kyoto Protocol. The main results of this simulation-based study are that under a wide range of plausible assumptions concerning its economic development and its estimated energy supply, Russia's participation in the Kyoto protocol may hold the promise of economic and environmental benefits. The second project concerns the outlooks for the Russian natural gas sector. The MERGE global model, i.e., one of the most well-known and extensively used E3 models, is used in the study pertinent to the first project. The GASCOM dynamic optimization shell is used for research efforts within the second project aimed at optimization of investments into the gas lines. Although both projects are in their early phases, a set of relevant results have been obtained already.

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