What Do We Know About the Future Changes in the Proportions of Children and Elderly in Europe?
Authors: Lutz W, Scherbov S
Publication Year: 1999
Reference: Compendium of Family Studies in Austria 1999, Schriftenreihe Nr. 7, Austrian Institute for Family Studies, Vienna, Austria pp.123-139 (1999)
www.oif.ac.at/fileadmin/OEIF/schriften/Schrift7.pdf
Abstract
This report presents the first probabilistic population forecasts for the European Union following the approach of expert-based probabilistic projections as developed at IIASA. The central, high and low assumptions used for future fertility, mortality and migration correspond essentially to those of Eurostat. These high-low ranges were assumed to cover 67% and 90% of all future paths, depending on the model. The results show convincingly that very significant population aging over the coming decades is not just a scenario of unknown probability, but is practically a certainty. By 2050 the proportion above age 60 is likely to increase by about 60% whereas the proportion of children and youngsters will fall by about 20%. This trend is much less uncertain for the elderly than for the young.
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