Integrated modeling approach to the analysis of food security and sustainable rural developments: Ukrainian case study

In Ukraine, the growth of intensive agricultural enterprises with a focus on fast profits contributes considerably to food insecurity and increasing socio-economic and environmental risks. Ukraine has important natural and labor resources for effective rural development. For example, more than 50% of food production is still managed in small and medium farms despite the difficulties associated with economic instabilities and the lack of proper policy support. The main issue for the agro-policy nowadays is to use these resources in a sustainable way enforcing robust long term development of rural communities and agriculture.
In this paper, we introduce a stochastic geographically explicit model for designing forward looking policies regarding robust resources allocation and composition of agricultural production enhancing food security and rural development. In particular, we investigate the role of investments into rural facilities to stabilize and enhance the performance of the agrofood sector in view of uncertainties and incomplete information. The security goals are introduced in the form of multidimensional risk indicators.

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