The Kyoto Policy Process in Perspective: Long-term Concentration Targets versus Short-term Emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions are believed to be the main reason of climate change. Thus, it is essential to limit and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in order to stabilize climate. Short-term policies such as the Kyoto Protocol stipulate emission limitation or reduction commitments. However, it is also, if not more, important to keep an eye on the long-term effects of these policies since it takes decades to centuries to manifest the consequences of greenhouse gas emissions. And vice versa: it is a problem to translate long-term targets to near-term commitments that will allow reaching the given target.

This study is meant to serve as a vision paper. Building upon the preparatory detection of emission changes (emission signals) under the Kyoto Protocol, it addresses the problem of correcting allowable mid-term emission windows that have been suggested to link short-term emission commitments with long-term concentration targets. Correction of the emission windows accounts for our inappropriate knowledge of emissions at the scale of countries and the risk that true (unknown) emissions can exceed observed emissions. Not considering this risk can result in excluding low concentration targets in the long-term; that is, climate stabilization at a level that is not dangerous.

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