Probabilistic Household Projections based on an Extension of the Headship Rates Method with an Application to the Case of Russia

The paper presents a probabilistic method for projecting the number of households and their distribution by size. The method combines probabilistic population projection with a probabilistic headship rates model. In order to distribute the households by size, we use recently developed models for conditional proportions of households of different sizes among households of the same size or bigger. Models are approbated on the case of Russia with the fertility scenario assuming the considerable success of demographic policies recently introduced in the country. The parameters for household models are estimated from the 2002 census using bootstrap procedures and from assumptions about the possibility of headship rates at young ages to reach levels reported for Sweden. Our results show significant changes in the future distribution of private households in Russia. Despite the overall decline in the number of households, our results imply a persistent shortage of housing infrastructure for four-person households. Typically these would be the households of two parents with two children, i.e., those families that are the focus of the recently introduced demographic policies.

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