Earthquake Risk Management: A Scenario Generator

This paper presents a software package EDGE, an Earthquake Damage Generator/Estimator for Toscana, Italy. EDGE creates samples of multidimentional distributions of damage using models of geophysical processes, seismic-geophysical data and a catalog of vulnerability of buildings in the region. The main algorithmic elements: seismic maps, geophysical formulas, and stochastic modeling, are described in detail. The work contributes to a joint research program of Dynamic Systems, and Risk, Modeling and Society projects on data-based methodological support for decision making in the insurance industry against risks of natural catastrophes. The designed catalogs of expected damages can be used for actuarial calculations and optimization of the regional insurance portfolio.

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