Today’s world is undergoing fast-paced, unprecedented global transformations. These changes include new levels of globalization and market integration, fundamental shifts in economic and global power from east to west and north to south, environmental challenges from space-specific to global scales, and unpredictable social conflict. This session will focus on characterizing and better understanding these changes and their main drivers.  It will explore possible futures for the world we live in; and how people, institutions, and technology might combine to determine the dynamics - as well as the direction of change.

Transformative changes are more than just marginal deviations from "business as usual". They include phases of radical change and sometimes turbulence, interlaced with phases of development and decline, toward new configurations. Moreover systems are not changing in isolation, but are interfering with each other resulting in ever more complex patterns. For population dynamics in natural systems or human societies such patterns can be described just as in technological systems, e.g., of the substitution of one technology for another. Sometimes dynamics of land-cover change as well as revolutions in political systems follow such behavior.
                                                  
The industrial revolution catapulted humanity to unprecedented, but uneven levels of affluence, and amplified the reach of human activities to such an extent that it was proposed to name the present geologic epoch Anthropocene, to highlight the enormous, unintended impact that our actions have inflicted at a global and geologically significant, level. Examples include modifications of the global nitrogen and phosphorus cycle, biodiversity loss, amplified greenhouse gas concentrations, stratospheric ozone depletion, ocean acidification, global freshwater use, changes in land use (deforestation, desertification, soil loss etc.), atmospheric aerosol loading, and chemical pollution.

While demographic, economic, and technological developments are generally recognized as basic drivers of transformative change, the interactions of their dynamics present a major challenge and an area of significant new insights. How does e.g., education affect demographic processes, or economic development? How do distributional and spatial variations of income result in different behavior of the coupled social-environmental systems? What is the appropriate scale to study each of those phenomena? What will it mean to add another three billion, predominantly urban, healthier, and more long-lived people to the global middle class? What technologies, norms and institutions are effective in propagating sustainable production and consumption? What are the new challenges in modeling drivers and scenarios toward alternative development pathways?

This session will focus on the power of systems analysis to provide integrated, science-based solutions to major global challenges. It will explore the challenges from the perspective of IIASA’s three major research areas. This requires in depth understanding and analyses of interactions, both within and between these areas. Moreover, the spatial and temporal dynamics of each challenge needs to be considered to anticipate synergistic effects and unintended consequences to optimize interventions.

Human exploitation of land, marine, and freshwater resources has resulted in land and vegetation degradation over vast areas, overuse of marine resources, depletion of aquifers, and the unsustainable restructuring of natural landscapes. These trends are escalating under climate change.  This panel will consider how new technologies, investment strategies, policies, and institutional innovations can ensure that there are not only sufficient food and water resources for the planet, but that those resources are developed in such a way that environmental sustainability objectives are met and that everyone, importantly those living in poverty, receive their share.

Lack of access to modern energy services imposes enormous health costs and impedes economic development while the use of fossil fuels by modern, industrialized societies threatens to irreversibly alter the Earth’s climate. Transformation to a low-carbon energy system is critical, as global energy production, currently generated largely by fossil fuels, will increase significantly if the nearly three billion people currently living without modern energy are to get access. This panel will focus on reframing the climate change debate, using a transformation of the energy system as the catalyst for green growth, sustainable development and resource efficient economies. IIASA will contribute by outlining a framework to achieve a decarbonized, more climate sensitive and socially equitable world.

Deep inequalities exists in different societies. Examples include food poverty, inequality in health and education access, energy poverty, and the additional, often unexpected threats borne by the most vulnerable in society to disease and natural disasters.

This panel will challenge current thinking on what defines poverty and equity, what opportunities genuinely exist for alleviating poverty and, drawing on the tools of systems analysis, what new, visionary ideas can be offered to regional, national and international bodies to help avert further poverty and build resilience in communities most at risk.

Systems Analysis provides a lens by which the many interlinked drivers and potential consequences of social, economic, environmental and political change can be identified, and actions or policies formulated, to avert or moderate some of these unacceptable or unwanted impacts. This requires in-depth understanding and analyses of interactions, both within and between the research areas presented in the previous three sessions. Moreover, the spatial and temporal dynamics of each challenge needs to be considered to anticipate synergies and unintended consequences to optimize interventions.

This session will focus on new and innovative insights into the concepts and mechanisms that define and often constrain our actions. For this purpose it is necessary to reflect-on, and possibly re-define, ultimate goals like development, equity or well-being. The session will explore the alternative, more sustainable, and more just worlds that could emerge from transformational change across various levels. It reflects on the discussions that take place during Rio+20 and will identify essential challenges for future policy making.

The aggregated metrics used to measure the wealth of nations – such as Gross National Product, and similar measures –may misrepresent the real state of a society. New concepts and measures of equity or wellbeing are urgently needed that identify the minimum requirements for any individual to live with dignity, security, in good health, and free from extreme poverty. Is it possible to define and agree on some universal principles of individual wellbeing that could be applied across all societies? It would seem imperative that we try to do so. These principles of wellbeing could then serve as the basis for a debate on a global understanding of equity and justice.

Rapid economic growth in many regions makes it imperative to rethink conventional concepts of development. Strategies of “grow now, clean up later” are clearly unfeasible, as evidenced by the overutilization and degradation of essential ecosystem services (such as the regulation of the global carbon cycle, provision of freshwater, or maintenance of biodiversity). Following on from the “sustainable development” paradigm of the 90s, “green growth” which respects planetary boundaries has now been embraced as the next opportunity for achieving environmentally sound development. But the implementation and demonstration of progress towards these goals is yet to be realized. The green growth paradigm requires changing the way we think about global, national and personal development, development that must now be based on a fully integrated concept.

The Closing Plenary will feature a creative interactive session, involving some of the most innovative thinkers of our time, to discuss what ‘future worlds’ are possible, and what obstacles must be overcome to make these worlds a reality.

IIASA applies advanced systems analysis to firstly understand, and then formulate, possible solutions to global problems. Its research provides insights and guidance to policymakers worldwide to improve human and social wellbeing and to protect the environment. IIASA science is structured into three sets of activities: 1) crosscutting research into policy-relevant solutions in the three global problem areas namely, Food & Water, Energy & Climate Change, and Poverty & Equity; 2) innovative and explorative research that examines the frontiers in systems analysis; and 3) policy, decision, and negotiation analysis that builds bridges between the scientific and policy worlds. The Opening Plenary Session will present IIASA’s integrative research agenda, its achievements, and its visions for the future.

A diverse offering of parallel sessions will feature IIASA’s cutting-edge research and how it is making a positive impact on the world. Select external speakers will complement IIASA scientists in these sessions, which will highlight, in particular, the power of systems analysis and the insights that can be gained through integrative, interdisciplinary research. The sessions will be organized around the following themes:

Theme 1: Science-insight-guidance: reflecting on IIASA’s policy impact: “How has IIASA research influenced the policy process in the past? What is IIASA doing to inform the future?”

Theme 2: Sustainable scenarios for the 21st century: Identifying drivers and developing storylines: “What will the world look like in fifty years or beyond? Where will people live, and how? How will we cope with the many social and environmental challenges of our time?”

Theme 3: Synergies and trade-offs: analyzing complex systems in integrated frameworks: “Do win-win policies really exist? How do climate policies affect air pollution? What are the impacts of different land-use patterns on food and water?”

Roundtable discussions will give conference participants the opportunity to dive even deeper into the issues raised during the parallel sessions and the previous days’ meetings – this time, however, in more intimate, “Socratic” settings. The small-group formats, which will be led by both IIASA scientists and external experts, will promote an interactive discourse among all participants.

A highlight of IIASA Day will be the poster session, which will highlight the wide array of multi-disciplinary research activities taking place at IIASA, as well as those being carried out by external collaborators (see the Call for Abstracts for more information.)

Multi-media exhibits will enable IIASA scientists to introduce their advanced modeling tools and approaches in an interactive, hands-on way. In addition, IIASA Day attendees will be able to take tours of the Laxenburg Castle and its idyllic surroundings.