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Abstract:
Census data from 1991 from Botswana and Namibia were analyzed using the
'children ever born technique' to estimate child mortality. The method used
is reviewed briefly, with emphasis on aspects not covered by the standard UN
reference on mortality estimation, Manual X. The census data appear to
be of very high quality for use with the children ever born technique. Between
the mid-1970s and the early 1990s, both Botswana and Namibia experienced
spectacular declines in under-five mortality (5q0) - estimates of 5 q 0
during this time span dropped from greater than 150% to below 75% for
both countries. Rural areas have higher mortality rates than urban areas, but
both rural and urban areas experienced similar declines. Plausible reasons
for the dramatic decline in mortality are discussed, and prospects for
the future are assessed.
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