Market share of individual generations in the global DRAM market (measured in bits sold), logit transformation. Market share F of a technology, divided by
the remaining market shares of all other technologies (1-F), on a logarithmic scale. Bold lines are empirical data; dashed thin lines are model estimates
using the Marchetti-Nakicenovic model. The quite reasonable fit of the model as well as the regular spacing of market introduction and phase out indicate (tightly) planned technological life cycles (Dt of 3 years), offering possibilities for forecasting as long as the technological trajectory holds. (The somewhat
retarded market penetration of 256M DRAMs might indicate that it actually may no longer hold in its classic manifestation, but definitive conclusions will
only be possible through an analysis of the most recent market data, which we in an academic environment cannot afford.)
