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| FAQ |
| Will China's agriculture suffer from climate change? |
| This is
a very difficult question to answer, because key parameters of the problem are still
unknown or can be predicted only with high uncertainty. However, three elements of the
problem have to be considered: |
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If climate scenarios
of current General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to determine those areas in China,
which are potentially suitable for rain-fed crop cultivation (wheat, maize, etc), one can
find that these areas will expand to the North. Increased temperature and
precipitation in the temperate and cool higher latitudes (due to global warming) would
improve growing conditions in the currently water-constrained Northern plain of China.
This could especially boost production of wheat and maize. Higher precipitation and
temperature in Inner Mongolia should also increase the productivity of the huge grassland
areas - and thus provide better conditions for ruminant livestock production. |
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On the other hand
there is a number of climate researchers who have predicted a higher frequency and greater
strength of "extreme" weather conditions, such as taifunes, hurricanes or
draughts. Especially the monsoon system could become more volatile. This could seriously
affect China's paddy rice areas in the South and South-East. Harvest losses due to
flooding or thunderstorms could increase. |
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The global warming
impact on China's agriculture is, however, not only the net-effect of the above mentioned
positive and negative natural effects. There are important institutional,
technical and economic factors. For instance, if China does not significantly improve dams
and flood management systems, it will become even more vulnerable to flooding disasters
triggered by global warming (flooding is already the major cause of arable
land-loss). In other words:China's investment decisions into infrastructure will affect,
how serious climate change impacts will become in the future. |
| On
balance, it can be concluded that China will probably have a slight advantage of
global warming. Several authors have come to this conclusion (see for instance: Mendelsohn
/ Morrison, 1998; Ye Dusheng / Lin Hai, et al, 1995). |
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| revision Heilig, G.K. (2004): RAPS-China. A Regional Analysis and Planning System. Laxenburg, Austria |
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