Proceedings of the
Second EuroConference on

Global Change and
Catastrophe Risk Management:
Earthquake Risks in Europe

IIASA Laxenburg, Austria 6–9 July 2000

Papers

With the purpose of quickly giving information on the presentations at the conference and keeping records of them, full papers or summaries are being converted to Adobe PDF format and put on the web as soon as they are submitted by the authors.

International Research and Cooperation Frameworks

Gordon MacDonald, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
see IIASA Options Spring 1998 and Fall/Winter 1999

Michel Geradin, CEC-Joint Research Center, ISIS, Ispra, Italy

Jean-Pierre Massue, EUR-OPA Major Hazards Agreement, Strasbourg, France

International Cooperation for the Safety of Urban Systems with Special Focus on the Mediterranean Region (EUROMED-SAFE Cooperation Platform)
Giuseppe Luongo and Armando Mauro

I. Case Studies

Turkey

Report on 1999 Kocaelli and Duezce (Turkey) Earthquakes
Mustafa Erdik

Compound Growth or Compound Seismic Risk of Destruction? Some Vulnerability Lessons from the Izmit, Turkey, Earthquake of 17 August 1999
Ian L. Nunez

A Differentiated Statistic of Building Damages in a Macroseismic Analysis After the Turkish Earthquakes in 1999
Mathias Raschke, J. Schwarz, D.H. Lang

Mission of German Task Force After the Izmit (Kocaeli) Earthquake of August 19, 1999:
Analysis of Aftershock Data and Structural Damage
Dominik H. Lang, J. Schwarz and Mathias Raschke

Japan

The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster (January 1995)
Hiroyuki Kameda

Long-term Effects of the Hyogo Nanbu Earthquake on Economic Activities of the Port of Kobe - Time Series Analysis
Yoshio Kajitani, Hirokazu Tatano and Norio Okada

California

The California Northridge Earthquake (January 1994)
William J. Petak and Shirin Elahi

Greece

The Athens (Greece) Earthquake of 7 September 1999: The Event, Its Effects and the Response
Petros Dimitriu, Ch. Karakostas and V. Lekidis

Taiwan

Emergency Relief Measures and the Rehabilitation Policies in the Aftermath of the 1999 Nantou (Taiwan) Earthquake
Daigee Shaw

Topographic Effects Influencing Large Scale Slope Failure During the 21st of September Chichi Earthquake, Taiwan, 1999
William Murphy, D.N. Petley, G. Risdon and M.C. Chen

The Disruption of Global Markets by Earthquakes: Risk Analysis of PC Supply Chains
Ioannis S. Papadakis

II. Comparative Lessons for Risk Management

Overview

Earthquakes of 1999 - Issues for Catastrophe Risk Management
Charles Scawthorn

Performance and Vulnerability

Performance of Industrial Facilities During the 1999 Earthquakes: Implications for Risk Managers
Alistair M. Moat, Andrew J.T. Morrison and Simon Wong

Transportation Performance, Disaster Vulnerability, and Long-Term Effects of Earthquakes
Stephanie E. Chang

Earthquake Loss Modeling Applications for Disaster Management: Lessons from the 1999 Turkey, Greece, and Taiwan Earthquakes
Laurie A. Johnson

The Lessons of the Destructive Earthquakes Occurred in Turkey and Armenia
A commentary by Marat U. Ashimbaev

Mitigation, Loss Sharing and Reconstruction

Public-Private Partnerships for Reducing Seismic Risk Losses
Howard Kunreuther

Loss Sharing: A Study of Recent Major Earthquakes and Floods
Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer and Simon Quijano

World Bank Experience on Reconstruction After Earthquakes
Christopher Barham

Kobe and Northridge Reconstruction: A Look at Outcomes of Varying Public and Private Housing Reconstruction Financing Models
Laurie A. Johnson

III. Global and Regional Issues, and Emerging Research Perspectives

Integrated Management

Integrated Management for Disaster Risk - New Research Perspective for Earthquake Loss Mitigation
Norio Okada

Regional Correlation

The Athens, Greece, Earthquake (Ms = 5.9) of 7 September 1999: An Event Triggered by the Izmit, Turkey, 17 August 1999 Earthquake?
Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos

The Human Dimension

Human Dimensions of Europe's Increasing Earthquake Disaster Potential
James K. Mitchell

Commentary: Maureen Fordham

Natural Disaster Risk and Egalitarian Principle for Relief Programmes
Franz E. Prettenthaler

The Place of Gender in Earthquake Vulnerability and Mitigation
Maureen Fordham

IV. Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Case Studies

Mitigation of Seismic Hazards and the Protection of Cultural Heritage: A Case Study for Naples
Concettina Nunziata, Giuseppe Luongo and Giuliano F. Panza

Research on Seismic Behavior and Retrofitting of Historical Buildings
A commentary by Michel Geradin

Earthquake Modelling as a Risk Management Tool for Accumulation Control in the Insurance Industry
Martin Bertogg, Sandro Kriesch and Edouard Schmid

Earthquake Scenarios for Switzerland
Donat Faeh, et al.

Deterministic Approach to Assess the Seismic Hazard: Contribution for an Integrated Assessment of Risk in the Alpine Context
Philippe Rosset and Jean-Jacques Wagner

Increasing Loss Potential in Earthquake Risk - A Reinsurance Perspective
Alexander Allmann and Anselm Smolka

Earthquake Risk Assessment for Romania
Friedemann Wenzel and Dan Lungu

Vulnerability to Earthquakes in Ukraine
Commentary: Igor Rokityansky

Earthquake Risk Assessment Case Study: Cyprus
Stella Kythreoti and Kypros Pilakoutas

Groundwater Related Environmental Problems After an Earthquake
Olga Nitcheva

R & D and Information Technology

The European Laboratory for Structural Assessment (ELSA) and its Role for the Validation of European Seismic Codes
Michel Geradin and Paolo Negro

Disaster Response Management Systems with Internet Kobe's Challenge
Satoshi Tanaka

An Approach to WWW On-Line Intelligent Georeference Information Analysis
Valeri Gitis

Quantifying the Uncertainty in Seismic Risk and Loss Estimation
Patricia Grossi

Natural Risk Assessment in Environmental Policy-Making: A Conceptual Approach Towards Sustainable Policy Actions
Jurjen Bertens, Viola Maria Bruschi and Juergen Weichselgartner

Knowledge Representation in Technical Information Systems for Earthquake Loss Mitigation
Johannes Leebmann and J.B. Kyalo Kiema

 

V. Socio-Economical Impacts and Financial Management

Long-Term Effects and Economic Growth

Long-Term Economic and Social Effects of Earthquakes
Hirokazu Tatano

Economic Valuation of Catrastrophe Risks: Beyond Expected Losses Paradigms
Kiyoshi Kobayashi and Muneta Yokomatsu

Differing Economic Impacts and Policy Requirements of Earthquakes, Floods and Storms: A Case Study of Nicaragua
Reinhard Mechler and Koko Warner

Catastrophic Risk Management and Economic Growth
Yuri Ermoliev, Tatiana Ermolieva, Gordon MacDonald, Vladimir Norkin

Effects of Disaster Prevention Investment on the Economic Growth - A Theoretical Analysis
Wataru Isobe, Hirokazu Tatano and Norio Okada

Resource Allocation, Risk Sharing and Decision Analysis

Earthquake Risk Management: A Case Study for an Italian Region
Aniello Amendola, Yuri Ermoliev and Tatiana Ermolieva

The Demand for Homeowners Insurance with Bundled Catastrophe Coverages
Paul R. Kleindorfer

Instruments for Insuring Catastrophic Risks in Areas Where the Party Owns No Property
Ioannis S. Papadakis, Sandra L. Schwarz and William Ziemba

Insurance World: A Process for Understanding Risk Flows due to Catastrophes in the Insurance/Reinsurance Industry
Roger D. Jones and John Casti

A Descriptive Model of Decision Analysis for Mitigating Earthquake Risks
Hiroyuki Tamura, Kouji Yamamoto, Katsuhiro Akazawa and Kouichi Taji

Catastrophe Risks and Economic Valuation of Disaster Mitigation
Muneta Yokomatsu and Kiyoshi Kobayashi

Analyzing Transportation Network Reconstruction Strategies: A Full Cost Approach
Peter Gordon et al

A Methodology to Evaluate the Strategic Importance of Bridges and Tunnels Considering Seismic Vulnerability: Application to Lisbon
Victor Vieira, Carlos Sousa Oliveira and Carlos Bana e Costa

Decision Making on Safety Diagnosis and Renewal of Old Wooden Houses - Model Analysis
Hiroyuki Sakakibara, Norio Okada and Satoshi Tsuchiya

Mutual Risk Trade Through Stochastic Cost Allocation in the Recovery Project from Disaster
Keishi Tanimoto, Norio Okada and Hirokazu Tatano

 

VI. Insights from Discussion Groups and Panel Discussion

Discussion Groups on Seismic Risk Management and

Urban and Global Vulnerability

Reconstruction

Mitigation
D. Shaw
Risk Assessment
F. Wenzel
Earthquake Risk Modeling
L. Johnson, I. Nunez
Role of Insurance

Developing Countries

Social Issues

Panel Discussion: What are the potential global consequences of future earthquakes?
Alexander Allmann, Paul Kleindorfer, Jean-Pierre Massue (Moderator), Norio Okada, William Ziemba, Igor Rokityanski