Proceedings
of the
Second EuroConference on
Global Change and
Catastrophe Risk Management:
Earthquake Risks in Europe
| IIASA Laxenburg, Austria 6–9 July 2000 |
 |
Final Agenda
Thursday, July 6
| 08:00 | Pick-up from Hotel Favorita |
| 08:40-09:30 | Registration and coffee |
| 09:30-10:20 | Conference Theater |
Opening
Chair and Welcoming Address:
Gordon MacDonald, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
Michel Geradin,
CEC-Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy
Jean-Pierre Massue, EUR-OPA Major Hazards Agreement, Strasbourg, France
Case
Studies
Chair: Aniello
Amendola and Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer
| 10:20-10:50 |
The Turkey Earthquakes (August 17 and November 12, 1999) Mustafa Erdik |
| 10:50-11:05 | Discussion |
| 11:05-11:35 | The
Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster (January 1995) Hiroyuki Kameda |
| 11:35--11:50 | Discussion |
| 11:50--12:20 |
The California Northridge Earthquake (January 1994) William J. Petak and Shirin Elahi |
| 12:20-12:35 | Discussion |
| 12:35-13:05 | Earthquakes
of 1999 - Issues for Catastrophe Risk Management Charles Scawthorn |
| 13:05-14:30 | Lunch |
|
Session A - Marshall Room 1 |
Mediterranian
Risk Assessment and Mitigation |
| 14:30-15:00 | Mitigation
of Seismic Hazards and the Protection of Cultural Heritage Concettina Nunziata, Giuseppe Luongo and Giuliano F. Panza |
| 15:00-15:30 | Earthquake
Risk Assessment Case Study: Cyprus Stella Kythreoti and Kypros Pilakoutas |
| 15:30-16:00 | A
Differentiated Statistic of Building Damages in a Macroseismic Analysis
After the Turkish Earthquakes in 1999 Mathias Raschke, J. Schwarz, D.H. Lang |
| 16:00-16:20 | Coffee Break |
| 16:20-16:50 | Earthquake
Risk Management: A Case Study for an Italian Region Aniello Amendola, Yuri Ermoliev and Tatiana Ermolieva |
| 16:50-17:05 | Commentary:
Michel Geradin Research on Seismic Behavior of Historical Buildings |
| 17:05-17:20 | Commentary:
Concettina Nunziata Giuseppe Luongo and Armando Mauro International Cooperation for the Safety of Urban Systems with Special Focus on the Mediterranean Region (EUROMED-SAFE Cooperation Platform) |
| 17:20-17:45 | Discussion |
| Session
B - Marshall Room 2 |
Risk
Assessment Chair: Donat Faeh |
| 14:30-15:00 | Risk
Assessment for Earthquake Losses to the Insurance Industry: The Basics and
Beyond Sandro Kriesch |
| 15:00-15:30 | Increasing
Loss Potential in Earthquake Risk - A Reinsurance Perspective Alexander Allmann and Anselm Smolka |
| 15:30-16:00 | Performance
of Industrial Facilities During the 1999 Earthquakes: Implications
for Risk Managers Alistair M. Moat, Andrew J.T. Morrison and Simon Wong |
| 16:00-16:20 | Coffee Break |
| 16:20-16:50 | Earthquake
Risk Assessment for Romania Friedemann Wenzel |
| 16:50-17:20 | Commentary:
Marat U. Ashimbaev The Lessons of the Destructive Earthquakes Occurred in Turkey and Armenia |
| 17:20-17:35 | Commentary:
Igor Rokityansky Vulnerability to Earthquakes in Ukraine |
| 17:35-17:50 | Discussion |
| 18:00 | Bus departs to Restaurant Richardhof, Gumpoldskirchen |
Friday, July 7
| 08:00 | Pick-up from Hotel Favorita |
| Plenary
Session Conference Theater |
Global
Change and Regional Issues |
| 08:45-09:15 | Human
Dimensions of Europe's Increasing Earthquake Disaster Potential James K. Mitchell |
| 09:15-09:40 | Commentary by Maureen Fordham and Discussion |
| 09:40-10:00 |
The
Athens, Greece, Earthquake (Ms = 5.9) of 7 September 1999: An Event
Triggered by the Izmit, Turkey, 17 August 1999 Earthquake? |
| 10:00-10:30 | Discussion on Possible Regional Spatial and Temporal Correlations |
| 10:30-11:00 | Coffee Break |
|
Session
C |
Vulnerability
and Mitigation Chair: William J. Petak |
| 11:00-11:40 | The
Athens (Greece) Earthquake of 7 September 1999: The Event, Its Effects
and the Response Petros Dimitriu, Ch. Karakostas and V. Lekidis |
| 11:40-12:10 | The
European Laboratory for Structural Assessment (ELSA) and its Role
for the Validation of European Seismic Codes Michel Geradin and Paolo Negro |
| 12:10-12:40 | Integrated
Management for Disaster Risk - New Research Perspective for Earthquake
Loss Mitigation Norio Okada |
| 12:40-15:30 | Lunch and Small Group Discussions |
| 15:40-16:15 | Economic
Valuation of Catastrophe Risks: Beyond Expected Losses Paradigms Kiyoshi Kobayashi and Muneta Yokomatsu |
| 16:15-16:50 | Compound
Growth or Compound Seismic Risk of Destruction? SomeVulnerability
Lessons from the Izmit, Turkey, Earthquake of 17 August 1999 Ian L. Nunez |
| 16:50-17:25 | The
Place of Gender in Earthquake Vulnerability and Mitigation Maureen Fordham |
| 17:25-18:00 | Disaster
Response Management Systems with Internet Kobe's Challenge Satoshi Tanaka |
| 18:15 | Bus to Hotel Favorita |
| Session
D Marshall Room 2 |
Modelling Chair: Concettina Nunziata |
| 11:00-11:35 | Earthquake
Scenarios for Switzerland Donat Faeh, et al |
| 11:35-12:10 | Earthquake
Loss Modeling Applications for Disaster Management: Lessons from the
1999 Turkey, Greece, and Taiwan Earthquakes Laurie A. Johnson |
| 12:10-12:45 | An
Approach to WWW On-Line Intelligent Georeference Information Analysis Valeri Gitis |
| 12:45-15:30 | Lunch and Small Group Discussions |
| 15:40-16:15 | Economic
Growth Under Shocks: Path Dependencies, Traps, and Stabilization Yuri Ermoliev, Tatiana Ermolieva, Gordon MacDonald, Vladimir Norkin |
| 16:15-16:50 | Quantifying
the Uncertainties in Seismic Risk and Loss Estimation Patricia Grossi |
| 16:50-17:25 | A
Descriptive Model of Decision Analysis for Mitigating Earthquake Risks Hiroyuki Tamura, Kouji Yamamoto, Katsuhiro Akazawa and Kouichi Taji |
| 17:25-18:00 | Insurance
World Model Roger Jones |
| 18:15 | Bus to Hotel Favorita |
Saturday, July 8
| 08:00 | Pick up from Hotel Favorita |
| Plenary
Session Conference Theater |
Comparative
Lessons for Risk Management Chair: Hiroyuki Kameda |
| 08:50-09:20 | World
Bank Experience on Reconstruction After Earthquakes Christopher Barham |
| 09:20-09:50 | The
Role of Mitigation, Cat Bonds and Reinsurance with Reference to California
and Turkey Howard Kunreuther |
| 09:50-10:10 | Discussion |
| 10:10-10:30 | Coffee Break |
| Session
E Marshall Room1 |
Financial
Management Chair: David Simmons |
| 10:30-11:15 | Emergency
Relief Measures and the Rehabilitation Policies in the Aftermath of
the 1999 Nantou (Taiwan) Earthquake Daigee Shaw |
| 11:15-11:55 | Loss
Sharing: A Study of Recent Major Earthquakes and Floods Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer and Simon Quijano |
| 11:55-12:35 | Instruments
for Insuring Catastrophic Risks in Areas Where the Party Owns No Property Ioannis S. Papadakis, Sandra L. Schwartz and William Ziemba |
| 12:35-13:05 | Demand
and Supply of Catastrophe Insurance Under Regulatory Constraints Paul R. Kleindorfer |
| 13:05-14:15 | Lunch |
| Conference Theater | |
| 14:15-15:15 | Rapporteur Reports from Discussion Groups |
| 15:15-16:45 | Panel
Discussion: What are the potential global consequences of future earthquakes? Alexander Allmann, Paul Kleindorfer, Jean-Pierre Massue (Moderator), Norio Okada, Bill Ziemba |
| 16:45-17:15 |
Closing Session Chair: Arne Jerneloev |
| 17:30 | Transfer to Hotel Favorita and Airport (on request) |
| Session
F Marshall Room 2 |
Long-Term
Costs and Reconstruction Chair: Friedemann Wenzel |
| 10:30-11:15 | Long-Term
Economic and Social Effects of Earthquakes Hirokazu Tatano |
| 11:15-11:45 | Analyzing
Transportation Network Reconstruction Strategies: A Full Cost Approach Peter Gordon et al |
| 11:45-12:15 | Transportation
Performance, Disaster Vulnerability, and Long-Term Effects of Earthquakes Stephanie E. Chang |
| 12:15-12:45 | Kobe
and Northridge Housing Reconstruction: A Look at Outcomes of Varying
Public and Private Financing Models Laurie A. Johnson |
| 12:45-13:15 | How
do the Macroeconomic Impacts of Earthquakes Differ from Impacts of
Floods and Storms? A Case Study of Nicaragua Paul K. Freeman, Leslie Martin, Reinhard Mechler and Koko Warner |
| 13:15-14:15 | Lunch |
|
Conference Theater |
|
| 14:15-15:15 | Rapporteur Reports from Discussion Groups |
| 15:15-16:45 | Panel
Discussion: What are the potential global consequences of future earthquakes? Alexander Allmann, Paul Kleindorfer, Jean-Pierre Massue (Moderator), Norio Okada, Bill Ziemba |
| 16:45-17:15 | Closing
Session Chair: Arne Jerneloev |
| 17:30 | Transfer to Hotel Favorita and Airport (on request) |
Sunday, July 9
| 08:15 | Pick up from Hotel Favorita |
| Marshall Room 1 | TMR,
YSSP, and DPRI Educational Program |
| 09:00-09:20 | Welcome
and Introduction Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer, Marc De Cock and Norio Okada |
|
Hazard
Assessment |
|
| 09:20-09:40 | Deterministic
Approaches to Assess the Seismic Hazard: Contribution for an Integrated
Assessment of Risk in the Alpine Context Philippe Rosset |
| 09:40-10:00 | Topographic
and Directional Effects Influencing Large Scale Slope Failure During
the 21st of September Chichi Earthquake, Taiwan, 1999 William Murphy, D.N. Petley, G. Risdon and M.C. Chen |
| 10:00-10:20 | Groundwater
Related Environmental Problems after an Earthquake Olga Nitcheva |
| 10:20-10:40 | Coffee Break |
| Risk,
Vulnerability, Mitigation Chair: Aniello Amendola |
|
| 10:40-11:00 | Vulnerability
Assessment Jurjen Bertens and Juergen Weichselgartner |
| 11:00-11:20 | A
Methodology to Evaluate the Strategic Importance of Bridges and Tunnels
Considering Seismic Vulnerability: Application to Lisbon Victor Vieira, Carlos Sousa Oliveira and Carlos Bana e Costa |
| 11:20-11:40 | Analysis
of Aftershock Data and Structural Damage After the Izmit Earthquake Dominik H. Lang, J. Schwarz and Mathias Raschke |
| 11:40-12:00 | Knowledge
Representation in Technical Information Systems for Earthquake Loss
Mitigation Johannes Leebmann and J.B. Kyalo Kiema |
| 12:00-12:20 | Decision
Making on Safety Diagnosis and Renewal of Old Woodn Houses - Model
Analysis Hiroyuki Sakakibara and Norio Okada |
| 12:20-14:00 | Lunch |
| Long
Term Effects, Financing, Resource Allocation Chair: Norio Okada |
|
| 14:00-14:20 | Long-term
Effects of the Hyogo Nanbu Earthquake on Economic Activities of the
Port of Kobe - Time Series Analysis Yoshio Kajitani, Norio Okada and Hirokazu Tatano |
| 14:20-14:40 | The
Disruption of Global Markets by Earthquakes: Risk Analysis of PC Supply
Chains Ioannis S. Papadakis |
| 14:40-15:00 | Effects
of Disaster Prevention Investment on the Economic Growth - A Theoretical
Analysis Wataru Isobe, Hirokazu Tatano and Norio Okada |
| 15:00-15:20 | Natural
Disaster Risk and Egalitarian Principle for Relief Programmes Franz E. Prettenthaler |
| 15:20-15:40 | Catastrophe
Risks and Economic Valuation of Disaster Mitigation Muneta Yokomatsu and Kiyoshi Kobayashi |
| 15:40-16:00 | Project
Risk Allocation Through Contingent Cost Allocation Keishi Tanimoto, Norio Okada and Hirokazu Tatano |
| 16:30 | Transfer to Hotel Favorita and Airport (on request) |
Last updated 10 July 2000
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