ࡱ> 463QRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_` q !bjbjt+t+ UAA]8:VTt?2("B###9?;?;?;?;?;?;?$@B_?#U#|###_?Y%BY%Y%Y%#:B9?#9?Y%&Y%->&9?BE'$#? Insurance World: A process for understanding risk flows due to catastrophes in the Insurance/Reinsurance Industry by Roger D. Jones Complexica, Inc. Santa Fe, NM USA  HYPERLINK "mailto:Roger.Jones@Complexica.com" Roger.Jones@Complexica.com  HYPERLINK "http://www.complexica.com" www.complexica.com and John Casti Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe, NM USA Casti@SantaFe.edu Presented in Euroconference on Global Change and Catastrophic Risk Management IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, July 6-9, 2000 WHAT IS INSURANCE WORLD? Insurance World is a consortium of Reinsurance/Insurance Companies banded together with scientists associated with the Santa Fe Institute to try and understand the effects of natural catastrophes on the Insurance Industry. MOTIVATION The modern business environment has become global and interconnected. An earthquake in Japan can lead to the failure of a major bank in Britain. Just-in-Time inventory control in manufacturing processes increases supply chain risks. A dip in foreign exchange rates can flip the advantage between two competitors. So it is no longer possible to manage different risks independently. Risk can no longer be divided into risks that can be insured, like interruptions due to fire or supply interruption, and risks that can be financed, such as price uncertainty. The interconnectedness of the global economy forces enterprises to manage uncertainty and volatility as a portfolio of risks, not as independent events. The science of complex adaptive systems is the science of interconnectedness. As such it is well suited to address the issues of risk management at the portfolio level. The purpose of Insurance World is to develop a set of complexity-based intellectual and software tools to help todays manager make sense of enterprise and industry-wide risk. HISTORY The Insurance World simulator grew out of the wish on the part of several firms in the catastrophe insurance industry to create a kind of laboratory with which to experiment with various risk scenarios. For instance, suppose a force 5 hurricane drops on Miami Beach. Who are the winners and who are the losers in the aftermath of such a major catastrophe? And what kinds of firms spring up to fill the niches left behind by those firms that disappear after such an event? These are the type of questions that are of vital concern to catastrophe insurance firms---but for which no experimentation is possible. The Insurance World simulator is designed to be a platform for performing such experiments in silico, rather than in the wild, so to speak. The first phase of the Insurance World project, Insurance World 1, began in the fall of 1997 and ran for one year. It consisted of a series of five meetings at roughly two-month intervals between the eight representatives of the Insurance World consortium and the modeling group based at the Santa Fe Institute. The end result of these meetings and discussions was a software package termed the Insurance World simulator. It represents a toy model of the real world of catastrophe insurance, incorporating only two types of catastrophes---hurricanes and earthquakes---occurring in three geographic regions: Japan, California and the Gulf Coast. In this world, there are five primary insurance firms and five reinsurers. A run of the simulation extends over a ten-year period, in steps of one quarter each. At the outset, the user sets parameters for the external economic climate, estimates of the climate and earthquake conditions and the various factors distinguishing one firm from another. The simulation then traces out the implications of the decisions each firm makes in regard to developing market share, repayment of loans, attitudes toward risk, amount of risk assigned to reinsurers and so forth. In this way, various management strategies can be tried in an attempt to find those that lead to prosperity, or at least avoidance of extinction. The second phase of the consortium, Insurance World 2, began in February of 2000. This consortium will last six months. In Insurance World 2, the Insurance World Simulator has been enhanced to include: Any type of catastrophe in any market (up to 10 markets). Any number of primary or reinsurance companies. Detailed financial accounting. Enhanced interaction with the capital markets, investments in stock markets, real estate, short-term bonds, long-term bonds, Cat bonds. Purchase of Cat bonds. Enhanced gaming capabilities. Anti-trust modeling. The members of the consortia since 1997 have been: ERNST AND YOUNG SWISS RE ZURICH / CENTRE RE ITALRE / VICTORIA RE CALIFORNIA HOUSING LOAN ADMINISTRATION AMERICAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION BENFIELD GREIG EMPLOYERS RE ACE CAT LTD WINTERTHUR Santa Fe Institute Marsh and McLennan Los Alamos National Laboratory Wrigley Environmental Institute Complexica To what questions does the Insurance World Consortium want answers? How do frequency, magnitude, and geographical distribution of natural catastrophes affect the profitability of Insurance/Reinsurance companies? How is risk spread among the companies? What is the effect of various pricing strategies on the industry as a whole and on individual companies? How do the consumers affect the risk of the companies? What affect does the availability of capital have on risk? What are the conditions for the formation of new companies? What are the conditions for bankruptcy? What is the effect of marketing strategies? What is the effect of the structure of Insurance/Reinsurance contracts? And many other questions Processes Modeled in the Insurance World Simulator  AN EXAMPLE: AN AGGRESSIVE PRIMARY INSURER AMONG CONSERVATIVE INSURERS THE SCENARIO Five Primary Insurers, one aggressive, four conservative Two Reinsurers Four Markets - California Earthquake, Gulf Coast Hurricane, Japan Earthquake and Hurricane  The Blue Company aggressively seeks market share in the California Earthquake Market. It also aggressively seeks high Return on Capital.  Despite the fact that there is a large earthquake in the California market in 2006, the aggressive Blue company succeeds. The conservative companies are too conservative, ceding too much of their risk to reinsurers and maintaining too much capital on-hand.  There is an optimum amount of risk to retain. If an insurer retains too little risk, its return on capital is too low - the company fails. If an insurer retains too much risk, its capital volatility is too high - the company fails. There is a Goldilocks regime in which the risk is just right based on the risk exposure and the behavior of the competition and market. CONCLUSION: Insurance World is a paradigm for World Class business innovation. Client driven technology development. Clients come to understand possibilities in available technologies. Consultants receive an education in internal workings of clients and their industries. Trust is developed among participants. Proprietary projects follow. Consultants and Clients gain reputation as World Class Innovators. 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Q? ZI d    "JAPAN"  Probability  Earthquake!Q?  ZI d Hurricane!Q? ZId"O;5<V5<U0<<>0@   Sheet2    dMbP?_*+%"??cU} } } } $ %  T0 b b d    b   d  b  b          b {  z0  u  CLIENTS  ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________  "CALIFORNIA" # of Insured GoodsCost/StabilityTot. Prob. Damage  (millions)(0-1) 4@ZI!? ZIdC-D ZCZE ZCZE ZC  Prob of DamageProb of DamageProb of DamageAverage   (low intensity cat) (med intensity cat) (high intensity cat) Insurance Policy Frac Goods Affected Total Exposure    (0-1) (0-1) (0-1)  $Million    Earthquake! x&1? ZId! ~jth? ZJd! $ ZId!  ZI!   ZId' DD D       ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________  "GULF COAST" # of Insured GoodsCost/StabilityTot. Prob. Damage  (millions)(0-1) 4@ ZI$!? ZI$dC#-DZC ZEZC ZEZC   Prob of DamageProb of DamageProb of DamageAverage (low intensity cat)(med intensity cat)(high intensity cat)Insurance PolicyFrac Goods AffectedTotal Exposure (0-1)(0-1)(0-1) $Million ~ ?'$DDD  Hurricane!x&1? ZI*d!# ZI*d!  ZI*d! ZI*! ZI*d' DDD  ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ "JAPAN" # of Insured GoodsCost/StabilityTot. Prob. DamageTot. Prob. Damage  (millions)(0-1) Earthquake Hurricane 4@ZI0!? ZI0dC$-D#ZCZE#ZCZE#ZCC -D$ZCZE$ZCZE$ZC  Dl2 7zM u  7zM u_  2v T0! b" # d$   Prob of Damage Prob of Damage Prob of Damage Average  !!(low intensity cat)!(med intensity cat)!(high intensity cat)!Insurance Policy!Frac Goods Affected!Total Exposure! ""(0-1)"(0-1)"(0-1) ""$Million" # Earthquake!#x&1? ZI5d!#$ ZI5d!# ZI5d!# ZI5!#$ ZI5d'#DD#D## $ Hurricane!$x&1? ZI6d!$  ZI6d!$# ZI6d!$# ZI6!$# ZI6d'$#DD$D$$ LPu >0@ Sheet3    dMbP?_*+%MHP DeskJet 820C Series Printer6d,,HP DeskJet 820C Series PrinterLPT1 ,,"d,,??U} $ } $ } $  T0bbdb bEconomy  @ZI<+"Interest rate short-term bonds (%) @ZI>*!Interest rate long-term bonds (%)   # Stickiness of6-Property Appreciation (Depreciation) Rate (%)  # Consumers #Population Growth Rate (%)  Earthquake   Hurricane  # (1/Quarters) "California"@ZIC @ ZIC  @ ZIC ! UUUUUU? ZI "Gulf Coast"@ZIE @ZIE  @ ZIE ! UUUUUU? ZI$ "Japan"  @ZIG  @ZIG   @ ZIG ! UUUUUU? ZI08zy>|>0@   Sheet4    dMbP?_*+%MHP DeskJet@f,,@MSUDHP DeskJetd"d,,??cU} } } } } } } } $ T0bbdb b  d   b b  PRIMARY INSURER NUMBER~  +@eAZJeA Net Worth (W) $ZJOutstanding Loans (L) I@ZJ-$Profits from non-catastrophe sources $@ZJCost of funds (%) :1(Expressed as a fraction of catastrophe premiums) !(\?  ZJd* !Desired Efficiency of Capital UseI@ZJ _VPercent of investment portfolio in short-term bonds (the remaining in long-term bonds) 9@ZJ :1Percent of net worth company is allowed to borrow !W@ dZJ 4+Percent of Net Income Paid out as dividends V@ZJTKDesired Loss Ratio ( ratio of expected annual retained loss to premiums % )  ? ZJ 3 *Desired ratio of total premiums to capital  $@ZJ / &Percent of loan repayment per year (%)     Initial  Expected Rate Expected    Quarterly Target Market  Desire for Market  Annual for Price Change Annual    Market Share (%) Premium  Share (%) Share over Profits Loss   (1/Quarters) Loss Retained    CA Earthquake886@ZJ/j~XAd?DDY@ZJY@ZJ'q-AZJeA!UUUUUU? ZJ'AZJeA   GC Hurricane?ZJ/pq|=Ad?DDZJY@ZJ'ZAZJeA!UUUUUU? ZJ'cAZJeA JA EarthquakeON@ZJ/Z|Ad?DDZJY@ZJ'NNAZJeA!UUUUUU? ZJ'9AZJeA JA Hurricane}?ZJ/^A}ZA d?DDZJY@ZJ'#olwAZJeA!UUUUUU? ZJ'sAZJeA( TSkw945>0@ Sheet5    dMbP?_*+%MHP DeskJet 820C Series Printer6d,,HP DeskJet 820C Series PrinterLPT1 ,,"d,,??cU} } } } } $   T0 ub     uu  u  u   b ub b T0 pPRIMARY INSURER NUMBER~ ? +@eAZKeA Net Worth (W) $ZKOutstanding Loans (L) ZK-$Profits from non-catastrophe sources $@ZKCost of funds (%) :1(Expressed as a fraction of catastrophe premiums) !(\?  ZKd* !Desired Efficiency of Capital UseI@ZK _VPercent of investment portfolio in short-term bonds (the remaining in long-term bonds) 9@ZK :1Percent of net worth company is allowed to borrow !W@ dZK 4+Percent of Net Income Paid out as dividends V@ZKTKDesired Loss Ratio ( ratio of expected annual retained loss to premiums % )  ?ZK 3 *Desired ratio of total premiums to capital  $@ZK / &Percent of loan repayment per year (%)     Initial  Expected Rate Expected    Quarterly Target Market  Desire for Market  Annual for Price Change Annual    Market Share (%) Premium  Share (%) Share over Profits Loss   (1/Quarters) Loss Retained    CA Earthquakeqq3@ZK/nPAd?DD4@ZK@@ZK'89AZKeA!UUUUUU? ZK'vA ZKeA   GC Hurricane9@ZK/98-Ad?DD4@ZK@@ZK'ܴAZKeA!UUUUUU? ZK'vAZKeA JA Earthquake;;7@ZK/oeAd?DD4@ZK@@ZK':;AAZKeA!UUUUUU? ZK'vAZKeA JA Hurricane#8@ZK/2dŖAd?DD4@ZK@@ZK'Gp~AZKeA!UUUUUU? ZK'vAZKeA( TSkw945>0@ Sheet6    dMbP?_*+%MHP DeskJet 820C Series Printer6d,,HP DeskJet 820C Series PrinterLPT1 ,,"d,,??cU} } } } } $       u u  b u   u u x T p  PRIMARY INSURER NUMBER~ @ +@eAZLeA Net Worth (W) $ZLOutstanding Loans (L) ZL-$Profits from non-catastrophe sources $@ZLCost of funds (%) :1(Expressed as a fraction of catastrophe premiums) !(\?  ZLd* !Desired Efficiency of Capital UseI@ZL _VPercent of investment portfolio in short-term bonds (the remaining in long-term bonds) 9@ZL :1Percent of net worth company is allowed to borrow !W@ dZL 4+Percent of Net Income Paid out as dividends V@ZLTKDesired Loss Ratio ( ratio of expected annual retained loss to premiums % )  ?ZL 3 *Desired ratio of total premiums to capital  $@ZL / &Percent of loan repayment per year (%)     Initial  Expected Rate Expected    Quarterly Target Market  Desire for Market  Annual for Price Change Annual    Market Share (%) Premium  Share (%) Share over Profits Loss   (1/Quarters) Loss Retained    CA Earthquakeqq3@ZL/nPAd?DD4@ZL@@ZL'89AZLeA!UUUUUU? ZL'vA ZLeA   GC Hurricane8@ZL/qGKAd?DD4@ZL@@ZL'qAZLeA!UUUUUU? ZL'vAZLeA JA Earthquake;;7@ZL/oeAd?DD4@ZL@@ZL':;AAZLeA!UUUUUU? ZL'vAZLeA JA Hurricane#8@ZL/2dŖAd?DD4@ZL@@ZL'Gp~AZLeA!UUUUUU? ZL'vAZLeA( TSkw945>0@ Sheet7    dMbP?_*+%MHP DeskJet 820C Series Printer6d,,HP DeskJet 820C Series PrinterLPT1 ,,"d,,??cU} } } } } $   T0 b b     b b    u  u  u PRIMARY INSURER NUMBER~ @ +@eAZMeA Net Worth (W) $ZMOutstanding Loans (L) ZM-$Profits from non-catastrophe sources $@ZMCost of funds (%) :1(Expressed as a fraction of catastrophe premiums) !(\?  ZMd* !Desired Efficiency of Capital UseI@ZM _VPercent of investment portfolio in short-term bonds (the remaining in long-term bonds) 9@ZM :1Percent of net worth company is allowed to borrow !W@ dZM 4+Percent of Net Income Paid out as dividends V@ZMTKDesired Loss Ratio ( ratio of expected annual retained loss to premiums % )  ?ZM 3 *Desired ratio of total premiums to capital  $@ZM / &Percent of loan repayment per year (%)     Initial  Expected Rate Expected    Quarterly Target Market  Desire for Market  Annual for Price Change Annual    Market Share (%) Premium  Share (%) Share over Profits Loss   (1/Quarters) Loss Retained    CA Earthquakeqq3@ZM/nPAd?DD4@ZM@@ZM'89AZMeA!UUUUUU? ZM'vA ZMeA   GC Hurricane8@ZM/qGKAd?DD4@ZM@@ZM'qAZMeA!UUUUUU? ZM'vAZMeA JA Earthquake;;7@ZM/oeAd?DD4@ZM@@ZM':;AAZMeA!UUUUUU? ZM'vAZMeA JA Hurricane#8@ZM/2dŖAd?DD4@ZM@@ZM'Gp~AZMeA!UUUUUU? ZM'vAZMeA( TSkw945>0@ Sheet8    dMbP?_*+%MHP DeskJet 820C Series Printer6d,,HP DeskJet 820C Series PrinterLPT1 ,,"d,,??cU} } } } } $   T0 b b     b b    u  u  u PRIMARY INSURER NUMBER~ @ +@eAZNeA Net Worth (W) $ZNOutstanding Loans (L) ZN-$Profits from non-catastrophe sources $@ZNCost of funds (%) :1(Expressed as a fraction of catastrophe premiums) !(\?  ZNd* !Desired Efficiency of Capital UseI@ZN _VPercent of investment portfolio in short-term bonds (the remaining in long-term bonds) 9@ZN :1Percent of net worth company is allowed to borrow !W@ dZN 4+Percent of Net Income Paid out as dividends V@ZNTKDesired Loss Ratio ( ratio of expected annual retained loss to premiums % )  ?ZN 3 *Desired ratio of total premiums to capital  $@ZN / &Percent of loan repayment per year (%)     Initial  Expected Rate Expected    Quarterly Target Market  Desire for Market  Annual for Price Change Annual    Market Share (%) Premium  Share (%) Share over Profits Loss   (1/Quarters) Loss Retained    CA Earthquakeqq3@ZN/nPAd?DD4@ZN@@ZN'89AZNeA!UUUUUU? ZN'vA ZNeA   GC Hurricane9@ZN/*Ad?DD4@ZN@@ZN'@cGAZNeA!UUUUUU? ZN'vAZNeA JA Earthquake;;7@ZN/oeAd?DD4@ZN@@ZN':;AAZNeA!UUUUUU? ZN'vAZNeA JA Hurricane#8@ZN/2dŖAd?DD4@ZN@@ZN'Gp~AZNeA!UUUUUU? ZN'vAZNeA( TSkw945>0@ Sheet9    dMbP?_*+%MHP DeskJet 820C Series Printer6d,,HP DeskJet 820C Series PrinterLPT1 ,,"d,,??cU} } } } } $   T0 b b     b b    u  u  u REINSURER NUMBER~  + _AZOeA Net Worth (W) $ZOOutstanding Loans (L) ZO-$Profits from non-catastrophe sources $@ZOCost of funds (%) :1(Expressed as a fraction of catastrophe premiums) !zG?  ZOd* !Desired Efficiency of Capital UseI@ZO _VPercent of investment portfolio in short-term bonds (the remaining in long-term bonds) 9@ZO :1Percent of net worth company is allowed to borrow !X@ dZO 4+Percent of Net Income Paid out as dividends T@ZOTKDesired Loss Ratio ( ratio of expected annual retained loss to premiums % )  333333?ZO 3 *Desired ratio of total premiums to capital  $@ZO / &Percent of loan repayment per year (%)     Initial  Expected Rate Expected    Quarterly Target Market  Desire for Market  Annual for Price Change Annual    Market Share (%) Premium  Share (%) Share over Profits Loss   (1/Quarters) Loss Retained    CA Earthquakedp>cH@ZO/PU ҨAd?DDI@ZO4@ZO'jWvQZAZOeA!UUUUUU? ZP'A ZOeA   GC Hurricane)kH@ZO/G=^o٨Ad?DDI@ZO4@ZO'xq``AZOeA!UUUUUU? ZP'AZOeA JA EarthquakeUUUUUG@ZO/xraAd?DDI@ZO4@ZO'Z AZOeA!UUUUUU? ZP'AZOeA JA Hurricane]tEG@icaZO/naHAd?DDI@ZO4@ZO'EAZOeA!UUUUUU? ZP'AZOeA( TMkw945>0@ Sheet10    dMbP?_*+%MHP DeskJet 820C Series Printer6d,,HP DeskJet 820C Series PrinterLPT1 ,,"d,,??cU} } } } } $   T0 b b     b b    u  u  u REINSURER NUMBER~ ? + _AZPeA Net Worth (W) $ZPOutstanding Loans (L) ZP-$Profits from non-catastrophe sources $@ZPCost of funds (%) :1(Expressed as a fraction of catastrophe premiums) !zG?  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