The SCENES project was a four year Integrated Project under the EU 6th framework designed to investigate concepts and methods to improve policy making under conditions of high uncertainty. It developed and analyzed a set of comprehensive scenarios of Europe's freshwater futures up to 2025, covering all of “Greater” Europe reaching to the Caucasus and Ural Mountains, and including the Mediterranean rim countries of north Africa and the near East. A key innovation is the linking of qualitative (storyline development) and quantitative (formal modelling and statistical analysis) methods.

IIASA joined Wageningen University in leading the scenario development process. The Risk, Policy and Vulnerability Program (RPV) staff designed and ran the participatory process of group model building to develop and analyze a set of comprehensive multi-scale scenarios for Europe’s freshwater up to 2025, with special emphasis on the Lower Danube region. They guided storyline development using a range of qualitative modelling methods (narratives, cognitive mapping and causal loop diagramming) to formalize stakeholder understanding of causal mechanisms inherent in the scenarios they examined. RPV staff facilitated improvements to storylines by integrating the results of hydrological models of EU freshwater dynamics and quantitative analysis of impacts on different sectors (agriculture, urban and rural environments, transport).

Funding Agency:
European Commission

Project time frame:
November 2007 to November 2011

IIASA Researchers:
Jan Sendzimir
Anna Lasut

For more information, contact Jan Sendzimir

Responsible for this page: Jun Watabe
Last updated: 28 Jan 2011