Interim Report

Fuller, Ben and Isolde Prommer (Eds.). 2000. Population-Development-Environment in Namibia. Background Readings. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA, Interim Report IR-00-031, 315 pp.

Foreword by Wolfgang Lutz (Leader, IIASA Population Project)
Acknowledgements
About the Contributors
List of Acronyms and Technical Notes
Introduction by Ben Fuller and Isolde Prommer

Part I: Environment

Biodiversity and Conservation in Namibia into the 21st Century
Grant Wardell-Johnson

A review is provided of the future prospects for the conservation of biodiversity in Namibia to the middle of the 21st century. I consider the biodiversity of Namibia within a biophysical and social environmental framework. Namibia is a large, semi-arid to arid country in the south-western region of southern Africa. It includes some of the most distinctive of the world's desert-dwelling biota with very high levels of endemism and high congruence among several major groups. Major environmental changes are expected with increasing demands on the natural environment. It will be increasingly necessary to maintain components of the varied traditional management systems if biodiversity and environmental condition are to be maintained. The future of Namibian biodiversity will depend on adopting governance systems that strengthen local-level mechanisms and institutions, and strengthening the links between knowledge generation, resource users and policy makers.

Water Resources of Namibia
Molly E. Hellmuth

This paper describes the water resources of Namibia within the context of the current IIASA PDE project. In the IIASA computer simulation efforts, Namibia's water resources are modelled on two different levels, on a regional scale and on a case-study scale that examines the capital city, Windhoek. At the regional scale level, the country has been disaggregated into three social ecological regions. This paper describes the water resources and the water resource issues within the context of the three regions. The objective of the IIASA work is to provide an assessment of the sustainability of the water resources, and policy measures which may be adopted to ensure its sustainability into the future.

Report on Water Resources and Water Resource Management in Namibia
Robert K. Davis

Namibia has a small population, an attractive climate for tourism, and a preoccupation with water, all of which befit its desert location. The government sector and the private sector have both invested heavily in water supply systems. Policies of heavy subsidisation of water supplies by the central government are being reversed by attempts to recover the full costs of water by the city of Windhoek and by a new parastatal water supply agency whose mission is full cost recovery of the water it supplies. An extensive and complex system supplies the central area from Grootfontein to Windhoek. Extensions to the system have been considered which would include an Eastern National Water Carrier which would tap the remote Kavango River. Water supply in other regions is also being studied. Rural water users in the communal lands will begin taking operation and financial responsibility for their water supplies. Although deserts warp the thinking of water supply planners, Namibia has in recent years shown a more rational psychology toward water development. It may be that Namibia's interest in tapping the Kavango is irrational. Past achievements aside, Namibia still has many difficult issues to resolve concerning its water development strategies.

Land Reform in Namibia
Lazarus Hangula

In a furtive glance, Namibia may appear to be a country with limitless land resources. Such a view is, however, misleading. Despite the existence of large and uninhabited tracks of land, especially in central and southern parts of the country, Namibia is faced with problems of destitution, squatters, land shortage, overcrowding and land degradation.

By introducing the system of private holding on land, the projection of European history onto the socio-economic life of Namibia has created a dual system of land tenure in the country, that is, communal and freehold land tenure systems. Encouraged by colonial laws and racist policies, European settlers developed an uncontrolled appetite for native land. This led to unprecedented land grabbing and dispossession, especially during the period of South African colonial administration. Many Africans were pushed away from their ancestral lands and relegated to reserves or home areas (Bantustans) in the periphery. This state of affairs alienated the black population, inspired rebellion, nurtured nationalist ideas and lastly, led to the liberation struggle as well as abdication of the old regime and independence. Namibia's liberation struggle was as much for independence as for the "stolen land."

After ten years of political independence, Namibia still seems to be far away from the dismantlement of the colonial scaffolding as far as land is concerned. The commercial holding is as stable as it was before because of its title deed, which is protected by the country's constitution and the exorbitant prices of its land markets. Lands formerly falling under Bantustan areas are now called communal areas and are legally government land. The majority of the black population (over 70%), whose livelihood largely depends on land, live here. Due to ecological constraints, some individuals have resorted to fencing off what is generally communal land for themselves. This results in a multitude of conflicts over land in the communities across Namibia. In this connection Pankhurst's (1996) book, Resolvable Conflict? The Politics of Land in Namibia, retains its actuality.

A Freedom Uncommon: The Development and Consequences of Namibian Claim to its Exclusive Economic Zone
Lauren E. Hale

The rapid development of the marine fisheries industry has large implications for the coastal management, employment, migration, and health conditions in Namibia. For hundreds of years, due to an ambiguous definition of territorial rights off the coast of Namibia, foreign fleets heavily fished its waters, rich with hake, horse mackerel, pilchard, and anchovy. Since independence in 1990, Namibia, a recognised sovereign state, has claimed and identified its valuable marine resource and has worked diligently to enforce its marine territorial rights. Employment prospects, job security, and migration patterns are all affected by the changed management practices of the industry, with highly increased migration to Walvis Bay. Among employees in the fishing industry, there is a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS and other poor health outcomes, potentially resulting from inadequate living quarters and limited opportunity for human empowerment. The government of Namibia and the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources must consider the social and health outcomes associated with the development of the Namibian marine fisheries industry.

Inland Fisheries Development in Namibia: Evaluating Alternative Paths For Sustainable Development
Daniel O. Okeyo

Inland fisheries are an alternative path for sustainable development. An updated checklist of inland fishes of Namibia as well as their distribution is recorded. Nearly all of the fish species are contained in the floodplain wetlands of four perennial river systems: Kunene (SER B - at least 62 species), Kavango (SER A - at least 80 species), Zambezi (SER A - at least 75 species), and Orange (SER B - at least 14 species) catchments. Khomas (SER C), permanent water bodies of which constitute mainly state reservoirs, contains only more or less introduced fish species. One may conclude that there are more inland fish species found in SER A than in SERs B and C in that order of importance. In addition to the above systems, more of the artisanal, angling and commercial fisheries activities also centre on the seasonal Oshanas of the Cuvelai and the man-made reservoirs. There are new potentials of further inland fisheries activities in the form of aquaculture and recreation. The latter links readily with revenues from tourism. Keen attention must be paid towards post-harvest losses associated with marketing practices of artisanal inland fisheries. Preservation through sun drying, salting, frying and smoking occurs in inland Namibia. The best fishers (harvesters, traders) of inland fish and fish products in Namibia are women and children. Several gears used by the women in fish harvesting are mentioned in the text. Management policies, regulations and recommendations, which will bring about sustenance of food security, are discussed.

Part II: Development

Government Policies on Sustainable Development in Namibia
Rob Blackie

This paper examines the evolution of key government policies on sustainable development in Namibia since 1990. Namibia's approach has been generally home grown, responding to issues that are of concern to the Namibian public and policy-makers. The most successful policies have been those that have either been based on strong community-level institutions such as conservancies, or on high-quality scientific analysis, such as management of fisheries or environmental assessments of large projects. Both examples have involved strong stakeholder participation in the formulation of policies and legislation. Inter-ministerial co-operation has been variable depending on the issue dealt with. Some issues, such as EAs, have proved cheap relative to overall project costs and are not perceived as a threat by the ministries concerned. Other issues, such as those relating to land and local governance of natural resources, have required co-operation from up to four government ministries to resolve conflicts. Government institutions that allow public participation and co-operation within government, as well as with stakeholders are examined and compared. Lastly, conclusions are drawn as to what direction should be taken by government in future to ensure that development is sustainable.

Education in Namibia
Riikka Shemeikka

During the colonial period, an unequal system of education was established in Namibia. The majority of the Namibians suffered for lack of qualified teachers, learning materials and school buildings. In addition, there were differences in curriculum between the population sections. Weaknesses in the education system resulted in high drop-out and repetition rates, and a relatively high proportion of the population had no formal schooling. Since independence, the number of schools, pupils, teachers, and the proportion of professionally qualified teachers have increased. The share of public expenditure on education from government spending has increased, as well as education expenditure per capita. Progress has been made in the educational levels of the population and the quality of education. There are, however, still large regional differences in education. These problems are largely a legacy of the long colonial period, and are not quickly or easily rectified.

Alternative Paths of Economic Development in Namibia
Dirk Hansohm

Namibia has a rich resource endowment and a high per capita income. However, poverty and inequality are top world wide. This presents a formidable challenge to policy-makers. The Namibian government addresses them through its First National Development Plan (GRN/NPC 1995). While its priorities - growth, employment, overcoming of poverty and inequality - are adequate, they do not address fully the real choices, and there is a lively and controversial discussion within Namibia on these.

This paper gives an overview of economic development in Namibia since independence. The situation in 1990 is compared with the present state. On this basis three central choices for development are discussed: the degree of international integration versus higher emphasis on 'self-sufficiency,' the role of the public versus private sectors, and the scope for rural versus urban development. Each section sets out the theoretical discussion on these choices, recaps the Namibian situation and discussion, and provides conclusions for a Namibian balance between the choices. The conclusion draws together the results of the three sections and comes up with arguments concerning the three issues relevant for a strategy of sustainable development in Namibia.

Emergy Evaluation of Water Supply Alternatives for Windhoek, Namibia
Andrés A. Buenfil

Emergy is all the energy of one kind previously required to produce something. By evaluating complex systems using emergy methods, the major inputs from the human economy and those coming "free" from nature can be integrated to analyse social and environmental problems holistically. Emergy analysis is a tool that can complement traditional cost-benefit analysis to make more integrated resource management decisions. In this study, emergy analysis was used to compare alternative ways of supplying water to Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, to select the most appropriate option.

The study evaluated the following three out of ten water supply alternatives: 1) taking water from the Kavango River; 2) desalinating seawater from the coast, near Walvis Bay; and 3) pumping groundwater from the Tsumeb aquifer. It was concluded that the best alternative, among these three options, is to use groundwater from the Tsumeb aquifer system, but without exceeding maximum sustainable pumping yields. This alternative consists of pumping no more than 20 million m3 of groundwater per year from the Tsumeb aquifer and connecting this water with the Eastern National Water Carrier near Grootfontein. However, if the Kudu natural gas reserves along Namibia's continental shelf can be used to co-generate electricity and distillate water, the desalination option might provide the greatest benefit for the local, national, and regional economy, despite having the highest capital cost. The worst alternative evaluated was the Kavango River option, in spite of being the least expensive system proposed. This alternative may not be sustainable in the long run and have large negative effects to the environment. Before any new water supply system is implemented, efforts should be concentrated in reducing water demand (e.g. by using economic incentives) and increasing efficiency (e.g. by reducing water losses from leaking pipes and evaporation).

A Strategy for Appropriate Technology for Development in Namibia - Recent University of Namibia Initiatives: Selected
Examples and Call for Collaboration
A.T. Critchley, F.J. Molloy, J.D. van Harmelen, and K.E. Mshigeni

The University of Namibia's Mission Statement gives the core functions of the institution as: teaching, research and community outreach. In the context of a developing African country, the university also has a heavy social responsibility. It is believed that the responsible application of appropriate science and technology can address a number of development issues. Sustainable utilisation of natural resources, and knowledge-based value addition (valorisation) of new products and services forms a cornerstone of this strategy. In this regard, UNAM has made much progress and has become a regional centre for research in ZERI-related activities.

Under-pinning elements of research and development by an academic institution are partnership and support from the private and public sectors. UNAM has made great strides in this field and is responsible for a number of innovations, particularly in the implementation of a unique private/public partnership for addressing the utilisation of waste in Windhoek.

The technology which Namibia needs in order to make use of its many biological and physical assets exists around the world. There needs to be a transfer of this technology to enable the creation of employment and to improve living standards in Namibia. These initiatives provide job creation and training opportunities contributing to the wider Namibian community in terms of poverty alleviation and quality of the environment. This paper not only calls for collaboration with colleagues around the world, but indicates where Namibia has developed expertise which can be of benefit to both developing and developed countries. The transfer of technology can be a two-way process!

Part III: Population

Namibia's Population Policy
O.O. Arowolo

Until Namibia became an independent nation, the country had no explicit population policy. Following independence in 1990, the new government adopted planning as a tool for development, and in the Transitional National Development Plan that was formulated shortly after independence, official view on the relevance of population issues to development planning began to unfold.

As a major step in institutionalising population in its planning process, the National Planning Commission in July 1993 created a Population Planning Unit, the long-term objective of which was to promote and sustain the development and implementation of a national population policy and the integration of population factors in the overall socio-economic development planning. Indeed, the country's First National Development Plan (1995/96-1999/2000) devotes a chapter of the document to population issues in development planning and sets a target to introduce population policy aimed at slowing population growth rate through choice by 1997. The target was met.

The population policy formulation process was participatory. Through a series of sensitisation missions and programmes of public education, the message of population in relation to family survival and national development was spread to the entire nation. In the end, the National Population Policy for Sustainable Human Development was launched in August 1997 at a conference that was to mark the beginning of programme design for implementing the population policy. The major goal of the population policy is to contribute to the improvement of the standard of living and quality of life of the people of Namibia.

The major population target is to reduce the growth rate of population from the 1995 projected 3.2% per annum (1991-1996) to 3.0% by the year 2006 and to 2.0% by the year 2025; reduce infant mortality rate from 57 per 1000 live births in 1995 to 30 per 1000 live births by 2015; reduce maternal mortality rate from the 1995 level of 225/100,000 live births to 112/100,000 by the year 2000; reduce total fertility rate from the 1995 level of 5.4 to 3.5 by the year 2015.

Strategies adopted in the policy for implementation include reproductive health and family planning; health, morbidity and mortality measures; promotion of gender equality, equity and empowerment; programmes of population information and education, legislative measures; and capacity building for research and employment promotion.

Fertility in Namibia
O.O. Arowolo

This paper examines the fertility situation by analysing data from the 1991 Population and Housing Census, the 1992 Demographic and Health Survey and preliminary data from the 1996 Intercensal Survey within the context of the 1997 National Population Policy for Sustainable Human Development. The overall distribution shows that Namibia is a high fertility country that has experienced a fertility decline within the last decade, from a TFR of 6.1 in 1991, to 5.4 in 1992 and 4.74 in 1996. There are significant fertility differences for rural and urban women, which correspond closely to regional differences. For instance, the highest TFR of 7.7 can be found in the completely rural administrative region of Ohangwena; a TFR of 4.1 can be found in the urbanised Khomas region (1991).

Fertility is closely related to socio-economic factors and coincides with the results of the analysis of nine selected social and economic indicators. The leading variable is education: the higher the education, the lower the TFR. The ranking continues with households with electricity, the urbanisation rate, and a weak negative correlation between TFR and female life expectancy at birth. Lack of modernisation is positively correlated with fertility. In this regard female education is particularly important, since it combines with other factors, such as delayed childbearing, higher age at marriage, etc.

It is, therefore, argued that the family planning targets - namely promoting higher contraceptive use - as designed in the Namibian Population Policy, which are supported by the National Family Planning Policy, are complementary to the social and economic development programmes pursued by the government since independence.

Migration as a Population Dynamic in Namibia
Wade Pendleton and Bruce Frayne

The interaction of population, development and environment is marked in Namibia, where at least 65% of the population is rural, and where drought and marginal agricultural land are commonplace. In response, both rural and urban households have developed a range of complex coping strategies as a means of improving survival and adapting to the infiltration of a global culture. Migration is one such coping strategy employed. This paper explores the complexity of both the causes and consequences of migration in Namibia. This dynamic phenomena is placed within the context of urbanisation and development, and the pervading situation of environmental degradation which is evident in most rural areas of the country. The paper argues that migration and urbanisation in Namibia are part of the global trend toward an urbanised world, and that while economic survival and access to services are important components of the migration dynamic, the infusion of a global and urban culture plays a significant role in the process. Given the multi-variate nature of migration in Namibia, coupled with a high population growth rate, the declining per capita agricultural resource base and the modest macroeconomic performance of the country, rural to urban migration will persist well into the next century. In addition, the paper argues that current policies of government decentralisation to regional and local levels, and rural development, are inadequate to effectively manage inevitable urbanisation. What is called for is a national urban policy which acknowledges the limited means of local authorities to adequately meet the increasing demands resulting from migration and natural growth, particularly as the majority of migrants are poor and have limited skills. Proactive planning and financing of urban areas as a central government function is key to improving the standard of living of the new urban populations of Namibia, while assisting urban managers to better protect the fragile natural environment by improving service provision to the burgeoning low income urban sectors.

A Model for Studying the Impact of HIV/AIDS on the Size and Structure of the Namibian Population
Oddvar Jakobsen

The paper presents a demographic model built in standard spreadsheet software for the purpose of studying the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on Namibia's population. The model combines information on fertility and mortality with assumptions and facts regarding the spread of the virus and the progression of HIV infection to AIDS. It attempts to draw causal lines to factors of relevance to population planning and health education, such as sexual habits and prevalence of other STDs. By re-interpreting available demographic data and by introducing the HIV/AIDS impact, the model produces population projections that are considerably at variance with previous projections, but appear more realistic in the case of Namibia. The model can be used as a sensitivity tool to demonstrate the effects of various assumptions regarding both demographic and HIV/AIDS parameters. It is in the process of being applied to data from other SADC countries.

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