World Population Program  

 

  Probabilistic Projections
Recommended readings
(* denotes peer-reviewed)

* Ren Qiang and Wolfgang Lutz. 2003. Population Density and Human Fertility: An Exploratory Analysis. Chinese Journal of Population Science, No. 5 (October 1, 2003), pp. 1-10 (published in Chinese).

* O'Neill, Brian. 2003. Climate Change and Population: Future. Pages 149-152 in Encyclopedia of Population, edited by Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll, Volume 1. New York: Thomson Gale.

* Lutz, W., S. Scherbov, and W. Sanderson. 2003. The end of population growth in Asia. Journal of Population Research, Vol. 20, Number 1, pp. 125-141.

* Lutz, W., B.C. O’Neill, and S. Scherbov. 2003. Europe’s population at a turning point. Science 299:1991-1992 (to download full text click here).

Lutz, W., and S. Scherbov. 2003. Can Immigration Compensate for Europe's Low Fertility? European Demographic Research Papers No. 1. Vienna, Austria: Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences.

IIASA Publications

Lutz, W., Scherbov, S.. 2003. Future Demographic Change in Europe: The Contribution of Migration. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA, IR-03-066 (December 2003).

Sanderson, W., Scherbov, S., O’Neill, B.C., and Lutz, W. 2003. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA, IR-03-052 (October 2003).

O’Neill, B.C. 2003. Conditional Probabilistic Population Projections: An Application to Climate Change. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA, IR-03-051 (October 2003).

Leiwen, J., and O’Neill, B.C. 2003. Toward a New Model for Probabilistic Household Forecasts. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA, IR-03-050 (October 2003).

Lutz, W., and S. Scherbov. 2003. Toward Structural and Argument-Based Probabilistic Population Projections in Asia: Endogenizing the Education-Fertility Links. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA, IR-03-014 (April 2003).

 

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Last updated: 27 Jul 2004

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