÷H(Sun Mar 04 13:44:20 2001) From GaboroneModel.vmfe,ˆàêîî›îî0*Q0*­¡¡7L¿llÈ!¼a¿ÀÁ£¤¥¦§©¢›œ£¬­«¨Êô£ ``ô    d€?(V`d?€ö€ö$ò  KXd5€ö€öéÎ  €‹ dç€ö€ö-(| andI€ö€öñ $ €ö€ö¼Š%Ñ€ö€ö¼ ‰-íD /ì€ö€ö¼ ‡2è €ö€ö¼ ‰<!€ö€öïÒ¼$Dþ Hÿ€ö€öŠv, L©€ö€ööØ  SB€ö€öŽ‚¼ Y€ö¼Š\M€ö€öVU\$^Z, ab€ö€öd\$c+€ö¼Šg$€ö¡œ „i€ö¼ ƒl€ö¼ ƒp€ö¼"ƒr€ö¼ ƒvü€ö€ö¼ ‡yœ6€ögœ „{€ö¼"ƒ}€ö¼ ƒ€ö¼ ƒ€ö¼ ƒƒ€ö¼ ƒ…€ö¼ ƒ‡€ö¼ ƒ‰€ö¼ ƒ‹³D'€ö-œ „Ž€ö¼ ƒ‘€ö¼ ƒ”€ö¼ ƒ—€ö¼ ƒ›€ö¼ ƒžÄM€öœ „¦ÏU€öøœ „¨€ö¼"ƒ«G€ö¼Š¯Ø€ö€öäû,$±ç€ö€öw,(³;€ö€öÃ, º-€ö€özf, ¿*3€ö€öÝ,$ÇVV€ö€ö_\<,ÌO;€ö€öœ•,$Ïp;€ö€ö«©, Õ)M Ù…Y€ö€öæü, Ý€ö€öÞ,,æ±;€ö€ö,(êŸÿX;n€ö€ö (ìÆÒ ;h€ö€ö",,ñ€ö€ö¼ ‡óß;€ö€ö;,(û1;€ö€ö+_Œ ýô|€ö€ö'',  €ö€öÅ’,,+€ö€öÇ“,, ²4 €ö¼Šd —€ö€ö†uŒ w£€ö€ö Œ ‚Ø€ö€öÓ⌠ó€ö€öŒ ˜€ö€öÏŒ$&« €ö€ö{Œ$.î  î€ö€öIF| $6ù €ö€ö—ˆ ,;ÕT €ö€öûÙ$@À €ö€ö‹Œ$JÛ €ö€öÉ”Œ Qè €ö€öUYŒ,W €ö€öY (] €ö€öE8  d  €ö€öÛíŒ,jä €ö€öW (pt €ö€öC4  w< €ö€öŒ(|z;€ö€ö4Œ ~z€ö€ö8.Œ ƒ…€ö€ö:/Œ ‡ %€ö€öˆyŒ$ŠH€ö€öA;Œ  €ö¼Š’˜ï ™€ö€ö“ ,Ÿk× Œ€ö€öw ,¤<€ö€ö¼ ‡¦$ €ö€ö ž ,ªÛ€ö€ö¤£ (¯1 c€ö€ö’‡  ´7 €ö€öžš ,¸” Q€ö€öƒ  ½Ò€ö€ö¢¢ (ÂJ;€ö€ö¸Á $È@;€ö€ö2 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$ J;v€ö€ö>6| &€;U€ö€öC<| &I ;­€ö€ö•ƒ| &K;€ö€öFA| &#íû(;€ö€öÝ·| $(»ò;€ö€öÕã$,g ;€ö€öÕ­| $0;€ö€öß| &3@. ;€ö€öÈË| $5$;€ö€öû | &:¦;€ö€ö]a| $Aw€ö€öc| F΀ö€öi| L€ö€öe| RÅ€ö€öa| W€ö€ög| \LÖ ;€ö€ö5)| "^#;€ö€ö<0| "`%—€ö€öÑ| fNo ;€ö€öÓ¨| $k5G;€ö€ö”$mÒ€ö¼ŠqËq €ö€öOì v@On€ö€öNJ yê€ö¼Š|/;€ö€ör}$~ÔG;"€ö€ö¦¤$ƒ`;€ö€öÙ²$‰'FG;€ö€öïþ$ “G;€ö€öý$”dDG;€ö€öà¼$™*k;€ö€öNA  U©€ö€öQK ¥êjG;€ö€öÙè$©~( €ö€ö(­ã;€ö€öÍ™ °‘ÐG;€ö€öA ³¦ág;€ö€ö#P µø€ö€öëÐ ¸,b€ö¼ŠÙ§;€ö€ö *$4»d€ö€ö 4,,4¿> €ö€ö!<$4Є;€ö€ö /L$4Ça;€ö€ö%\$4<\L, Ü L <, ü| Œ <,Ì ìÌü \, \   ¼ì \<Œ ,œ| , < ,¼ ÜÌ Œü ¬ ìÜ ì Ì<œ< ÌL Ll¼ ¬  < ,,ì¼ ¬l ¬\\l< ÌÌ Ü Ì ü LÜ |ì \ lŒÜ¬üÜüŒ l < ¼|Ü ÜÜ|,\\ ¼¬¼¼¬ œ Ü|Ì|œlüŒœ ìllL |¼LŒ ŒìüìœìŒ ¼|LŒl,Ü  œ|Lœ\<¬<| \ |ì ¬< <Ì üL œ \ ¼ ¼ì ¬|,¬ìÜŒ l <Ìü ÜÌ\,, l , ìlü¬Ìü üŒì lL¼œœ Ìܬ lœ ü¬ Ì ü œœ¼LLŒ\¬\L< œ | L l Œ \ LŒ | ¼ ,C¡7L¿ÈàSUMPRODVMINVMAXTimeINITIAL TIMEFINAL TIMETIME STEP SAVEPER.Gaboronemodel stepp steppnSTEP -Month reset resetreservoirgdp per capita constraintif then elseDemand SideGrowth gdp per capitaPercent Efficient .Macrosmod modulon.SubscriptsECS PalapyeMahalapyeGabSelebiPhikwe -indexMVAgSRelWJMoPChTCh BASIN Gaborone Molatedi BokaaLetsibogo NnywaneGaborone Dams minus MolatediGW PallaRD.scenariosSTCCPEffective PrecipitationClimate ChangeIncremental Rainfall ChangeMonthly Sum Pinterprecipitation dataTIME SHIFTStart Time"Incremental Temperature ChangeTemperatureTCTemperature K-KActual Vapour Pressure shiftAVTime Scaleefficiencyefficiency levelramp.NSConT max GaboroneRule percent T max SP&Gaborone Surface Demands less NSCDemands from Surface SourcesTransfer North South CarrierDemands TotalHuman Extraction&Percentage of Demands Met From NSCEmergency AbstractionUrban Water Use RateURC Urban DomesticMax Urban water use rateRural Water Use RateURC Rural DomesticMax rural water use ratedemands yearlylatTmax MahalapyeTmax Palapye ON NSCTransfer Losses .Demands2Demands IEItitutional, Energy, and Industrial"Demands Domestic-mPop UrbanPopulation UrbanPercent UrbanPop RuralPercent RuralPopulation RuralRecharge over Basin lambdaRelative StorageInitial dam LevelsSupply versus Demand RatioSurface Supply Rechargeinitial rural water use rateinitial urban water use rate-Dimensionless UR Rural -personTotal PopulationLosses System GDP NTUR per Pula PulaUse by RegionUR Percent by Month-PINITminimum storageMaximum StorageMinimum BaseflowMCM-MCM .MonthlyMon January February March AprilMayJuneJuly AugustSeptember October November December.PETacactual vapor pressureModified PM PETRngradient of saturated vaporpsychrometric constantWindVPDlatent heat of vaporization albedo alpha 0asatmospheric pressure-Paemissivitypi -radiansbcbsRadrwssin latitudedcos-mm-dReStefan BoltzmanJulian Dayday length-hdays in year-dayfSun hours-J-kgRi ARCTANxEresexptan-C-W sum PETReference Crop EvaporationRh-s&Specific Heat at Constant Pressure .supply OutflowTransfer BokaaTransfer MolatediDemands South AfricaTransfer NnywaneExcess ReleasesRUNOFF CM'sEvaporation InflowresSupply DeficitVolume to Surface AreaVSA Gab CurveVSA Nnywane CurveVSA Letsibogo CurveVSA Bokaa CurveVSA Mol CurveTmaxTminRSA Demands TableEvap CoefficientPET.groundwaterAquifer Extent units .waterzPrecipitationEvapotranspirationSubsurface RunoffSurface RunoffExcess RunoffMaximum Storage Capacityupper bound zRUNOFF mmGW Storage epsilon alphaArea gamma .Control#stepp(n)##reset(demandsyearly[ECS])#"#reset(RelativeStorage[BASIN])#"#reset(SurfaceSupply[BASIN])##reset(sumPET[BASIN])#”¡7L¿ŒŒ‡ ;¬Vœq  ¡7L¿rrÈnü <<<ì<<<<ì\Ì<<<ìÌ!<<<(<<<,-ü 3, 6Ì Ü 9, =L @| Œ CÌ ìGü K <<O X<\ [| Œ _ìd<<gÌ k<Ì ¡7L¿))Èœ¬¼ÌÜ쬼ÌÜìœ¬Ì  ,<L\l|Œ¡7L¿ttd¬Ì, ülŒŒ\ \ < \ \< Œ | ì \ | Œ,E\L< ,Üì< ¼ \ÌÌ Ü Ì ü LÜ |\ l Üܼ¼¬ œ üŒìL Œ Ü œ<¬| \ ì ¬< Ì œ \ ì ¬\, , ìlüüì œ ¬ œ ¬ Ì ü< œ | ¼ ,\ \ |ÜÜœl \ \ ¼ \ œ l Œ\  ÜŒ ,  Œ ì¬,ìü<\ !<,ì ¬<ܼ ,œlœìŒ Œl,|L |, ìüLLŒ\¬¬\ì l< l ü Ü  ü|Ì, üÌ¬Ü \ Œ<\Œ\L < œ  ü ì¼L¬\lÜ | ÜŒŒìœÌ|¬, , üœ ¬ Ì üLœ Ü  üÌüŒ<l\Œ¬ l ŒŒ¬œ Ì L | œ \ ¼ ,Œ|LÜ ìœ ¬ Ì ü|Ì,ŒüL¬, lŒŒ|Ü L l ¼Œ ŒÌ¬ l \ l|Ü\ ¼¬|œL ŒüìL œ Ül ¼œ Œ ŒŒìüÜ  ül|LÌ L¬  l œ <,,|L|Ìl,œL < œ l¼ì| Ì,Ü , \L|¬\l,üœ \ Ì L ¼ üÜ  üì ,Œ¬ \ | L,¬ìì \ ,|̬,Œ \ œ  |̬, LÜ  , ìœ ¬ Ì ü< üü¼ Ü l ¬ ì ì \ L¼ \l lŒŒì¬,¬ìL¬Ì, üŒ\œ ¬ üü¬  Œ   Œ  Œ Ü Œ , ì |,|Lü L < < < < < L  \ | Ì   ¼ªÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman dÀÀÀIntroduction¾»ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿCentury GothicdÀÀÀMain Menuýÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New RomandÀÀÀModel SpecificationsÆÂÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ€0Century GothicdÀÀÀInfrastructure GaboroneÏÄÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Century GothicÎÀÀÀGaborone Supply and Demand ModelÑÎÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ@@€ Century Gothic`dÀÀÀSurface Water BalanceÓÐÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Century Gothic‚ÀÀÀReservoirÕÒÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Century Gothic6dÀÀÀDemands×Ôÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Century GothicdÀÀÀScenariosÙÖÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Times New Roman dÀÀÀRunnning the Model &-\ŒŸ°ÌH¡7L¿¯¯Èærm yÐt:ÿ@@€0Century GothicCASE STUDY MODEL: GABORONE, BOTSWANA ÔZ ÿº¶ P;ÿThis model was developed by the Population Project at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria.¾¹ ÿ•/DÿSupport for this project came from the European Commission (DG VIII - Directorate-General for Development, Contract No. B7-6200/96-18/VIII/ENV).JE ÷³ÿThis program was written by B@ ÿS¿-ÿCopyright © 2001, IIASAld O1ÿMolly E. Hellmuth, Kenneth M. Strzepek, and David N. Yates.fa ‹‚.ÿÀÀÀÿCentury GothicClick here to explore...® ;ToˆŸ¶Ðï BQ_rH¡7L¿¯¯È}VR …4¯$:ÿ@€,Century GothicMain Menunk ô:î:ÿ@€Century Gothic- Gaborone Supply and Demand Modelb] |Ȩ:ÿ€Century GothicMODEL SPECIFICATIONSjf ÁWÍ:ÿ@€Century Gothic- Surface Water Balance Modelb^ v«:ÿ@€Century Gothic- Supply Source ModelZX q–z:ÿ@€Century Gothic- Water DemandsZX ^lj:ÿ €Century GothicWATER SCENARIOSfb ”¥À:ÿ€Century GothicINTRODUCTION / TITLE PAGEzx µkÞ8ÿCentury GothicClick on underlined topics for more informationb] u•:ÿ€Century GothicTHE MODEL - Diagrams^Z lç”:ÿ €Century GothicRUNNING THE MODEL†ƒ ì~8ÿCentury Gothic or scroll through the model by clicking Page Up/PageDown.:6 "7ÿÀÀÀÿ Previous Page62 •"7ÿÀÀÀÿ Next PageJH Ïêéÿ€FIGURE: INFRASTRUCTURE GABORONE*( Ä) ÿ@€@€À® MdzH¡7L¿ÍÍÈ   àC@Y:ÿÿCentury GothicThis model runs on a monthly time step. The starting time is January 1993. There are three variables that are entered in exogenous data files - precipitation, temperature, and vapor pressure. 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This will gradually become more efficient as we move from 2002 to 2021.ÿ ÁV(%ÿ@€ To consider the effects of industrial efficiency and no growth in water use per capita, turn Demand Side on by changing value to 1. Note industrial efficiency can be changed by modifying the efficiency level below.*( L/q0ÿÿ ž™ °{ÿ@€ To view results on a monthly time scale change "time scale" to zero, for a yearly time scale, change value to 1.*( LA£Cÿ€€€ÿ  Á",+ÿ€ÿ Consider the effects of various scenarios by comparing the "Supply versus Demand Ratio" -- which represents water stress. Values between 5 and 2.5 indicate that the system is under stress, while values below 2.5 represent high stress.*( ìE=ÿ€ÿ *( ÂE(ÿ€€€€€€ "  ”5€ÿ *( ÂE(ÿ€€€€€€ "  ”5€ÿ *( üÂE(ÿ€€€€€€ "  ”5€ÿ :6 <Š7ÿÀÀÀÿPrevious Page62 ³‰7ÿÀÀÀÿMain Menu62 *‡7ÿ ÀÀÀÿNext Page*( eFÿ@€@€ \¦ '[“¾Öøÿ,EH¡7L¿­­ÈPvs –©Ý *ÿ@€Century GothicThe model may be run in a variety of ways.ÎÊ ¦û"(ÿCentury Gothic1. Go to the Scenarios View and click on the Set up a Simulation button on the Main Toolbar and change the highlighted variables.ÞÜ ´Q!(ÿCentury Gothic2. Click on Stop Simulation Setup, name the simulation in the Name the Simulation box, and click on the Run a Simulation button on the Top Toolbar.ª§ ‘žé#(ÿCentury Gothic3. 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‡ì•|¹&¸¦ ùD ‡ì*•¬¹&••L&¦€?±¦€?±¦¦ªª= ‡ì2•¼²•œ°&$¦ÍÌÄA±$¦33ÇA±$¦ÍÌÄA±$¦33¯A±$¦ÍÌÄA„ H¡7L¿yyÈU&Internally defined simulation time."Eastern Case Study Demand Nodes2for Monthly values which follow unique monthesBasins of Botswanaoff is zero, binary–Represents the Ratio of decad three (30 years from 1997) to present monthly precipitation for Botswana. SET TO ZERO if you want climate change OFF.:For new data series,enter a number between 1 and 870.NConversion from Celcius to Kalvin degrees. Used to compute Net radiation.jif you would like to look at the data at a monthly time scale, set to 1for a yearly time scale, set to 0.Order:Palapye, Mahalapye,Gab, SelebwiPhikweÒFor the north south carrier: At the moment this is based off of the value of 90 M l/day (2.74e6), given to me by personal communication with Mr. Oteng S. Mamparanyane. In the BNWMP, it is listed as 3.42e6.jRepresents the minimum fraction of water that must be in gaborone dam in order to transfer to gaborone.vat the moment, Selebi Phikwe will get its water from Shashe Dam, when will this change? And how much will it take?NIdea is to allow temporary over-abstraction as Gaborone water runs short...ŠZero is no transfer from NSC, One is transfer. time must be atleast 2000. You can vary the time that each demand center is connected."incorporated in demand lossesFPercent of Total Rural Botswana Population found in the ECS nodes.FPercent of Total Urban Botswana Population found in the ECS nodes.1991 use rates from BNWMP:sytem losses due to consumption and those at the source2Domestic Demands for the Eastern Demand CentersBInstitutional, Energy, Industrial Water Use forecast by scenariox* Includes GDP for all economic activities excluding agriculture, mining, and the dummy sector. This is the gdp in 1993ba measure of surface reflectivity. where a black body has a value of 0, and snow a value of 1.Extra terrestrial radiationsolar declination"Maximum possible daylight hourscloudiness fator¶Ability to provide the energy required for evaporation. Amount of heat needed, in clories or MJ/K, to evaporate one gram of water at one atmosphere pressure to vapor>>539 cal/gm.sunset hour angle’Net Radiation--net input of radiation at the surface at any instant. The difference between the radiation absorbed Ri(1-a), and that emitted,Re.Evaporationsaturated vapor pressure.slope of the saturate vapor pressure curveRData file to be used. Monthly temperature time series, Celcius. Air temperature.latitude of site>Reference crop Evaporation is used as the same thing as PET.žAlso, the outflow from gaborone needs to incorporate the new demands on the system as the NSC carrier is constructed and the new demand nodes are linked.¶Although the Nnywane dam is not connected to the Gaborone treatment system, it has been added to mitigate the Lobatse Demands which get water from the Nnywane when the dam is full.¾represents the tranfer of water from the northern letsibogo dam to the south's treatment plant. To save on pumping costs transfers only occur when Gaborone dam is less than 50% capacity.ÚVolume to Surface Area Curves come from the NWMP Vol 12. With the exception of NNywane dam, which uses the parameters of Maximum Volume and Area, and then a curve was handfit based on the shape of the Gaborone Dam.‚Molatedi Dam transfers MCM/a to Gaborone dam when Molatedi Dam is more than 1/4 full, otherwise it supplies MCM/a, by agreement.‚Bokaa dam transfers its water to Gaborone Dam, but has a minimum dam level of 20% capacity where it stops transferring water.VThis demand table comes from the study "Joint Limpopo" volume on dam studies...\!\!æThe supply here comes from the Marico River, or Molatedi Dam, located in Bophuthatswana, South Africa. 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