H(Sun Mar 04 23:16:14 2001) From Botswana Demographic Model.vmfe, o$7L++J*)(+&'st2-,.gwwxvu!w ``i    "?](}g"M,+ }f"LI,+ }g"j3,+ }g"',+$ (.M ? M+ YfC ] _Z me uD w\ z| ~\H zxL( "  " /<&"fY!} $,gxcZL( 1m a  B5,x%d(L( IW .zL(   ij)M".(xzL( Bx-L( 5xL( Ox7L( z&L( * tS L  l DNL  ! + GvL"$7 IL*-/  ~  4 t B E { T ^$ Z . ` 7$e +? qo T9? } \G4  cXoS  kmV " s(  -    *F" "zML(   `e UH ( _! (tx L(   L  qBL  pBL$7 ? L v XL ~ {$L CL  }%L,hL"' MIL"#@ ln+L*(T *x .<!b$*3dvp-L&:DeO4 #$E2 v/L*H} ktL( KOd~+2L&PTh   \ d,i,k oI,qvG,tG,wG,zHG,}~G,Vp-(zrL( V("IV|)"wVD*"V +"V+"yHd+UL( ,"ZzSeWL( k,","7-"<-"V%/$<.S '<$+ <  " !                                            "  $  &  (  *  ,  .  1 3 " 5 2 8 # : $ < % > & @ ' B ( D ) F * H + J , M - P . S / V 0 Y 1 \@[< ^M\< a^^< do `< gDb< jYd< mnf< ph< sj< vxdqL( yl< |qGE<"MqRF<&hqf(<&qh(<&qH<&qF<&8~qsB&H<$qG<&qF<&qG<&!qOH<&FqH<&qZ#<&< L VrcC\ * \7Lr,l*nrSD\ *;sT\ *R2\ "iI(\ .     `IT\ ..&q\ .W=@\ ,<!/*"=.W?@\ ,UWA@\ ,<!" *WCE\ ,WEE\ ,G\ $ _\ ,X g\ , e\ ,  Ij\ . m#.v\ ._|1L( *#F\ 5#F\ @#F\ $O#W.\ .yL( (x ,|IL( 03( (\ (;|JL( ?|KL( C|LL( G* Jx N+ Q, T- W. Z/ ]0 `1 cx'Ic\ .f'a/\ j()\ n q t w z }      ! " # $ % & ' ( ) (;\ *x @}WL( |o 4~L( x U}YL( |x 7L( x j}[L(  } :L( }]L( } =L( -{o=L( I=WO(=WS(=WU(=WQ(H>< U>,"%>WG(l> (*d\ ./yL( m*dW3\ . *<4\ *@y| yL( "Oy1 vL(  \yV wL(  ! # %i+d3\ *0zy`!L( 4yL( 8myYL( :+<a:\ *=,dZ\ *G,d\ *L4|L( P/d\ .\0-d66\ (jA|+L( n}-db\ (}yL( y4 L( -d&\ *)<?\ (   :7\ (-d(!\ * .dD\ &2d\ &RDq(y@(|.dp\ &.dd\ &.\ &R|6L( y/ \ &/)& \ & "0VE\ &90\ $Q? *%y>F*/ xsb( 5H1\ $? "B0VG\ E"1 z\ I51 {\ M"O R T V X Z \ ^ ` e g j m p sc v2 y3 |4 5 6 7 8 9 : ; < = > ? @ A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z [ \ ] ^ _ ` a b \x L( 1B\ &l2d\ &2q7\ $$e #$/b4 #$9 37\ $Ei> #$Pm] 0 #$YeJX  z #$aB37\ $mS37\ $t3m\ yx }x 3,,4\ $3M\ $d-V {3 #$dU l3 #$-dU 4 #$3f\ $3"\ $38\ $X4d:\ &[vKwl&[K<l&ZEKml&4Z\ &z5L( {D8L( {L9L(  {T:L( o53\ &6:\ &6mG\ $" "%  (  +  .  1  48o7\ $9eu @ # <8V7\ $F=97\ $O98\ $Z93\ $dZJl&i:1 *M\ .px dmL( x;1 )\ ;\ (<KU\ (@+<,%x1dSL( xL( ^ x b G{?L( f x j T{@L( n x r a{AL( v x z n{BL( ~ x {{CL( x {DL( x {EL( x {FL( x {GL( gY  #$ k  #$ oH_ 5> #$ q^ #$ r   #$ /r( #$ Dr0 #$ Sr8 #$ nr@ #$ rY #$ rad #& rG #&* sH #&: Vs3 #&F sw3 #&Q s3 #&[ sc #&g tIO #&s MzL( y (tXL #$ ?tgnB #$ ^tv #$ }tlB #$ tkB #$ tmB #$ taI #$ t"a #  t #$ toB #$ u #$ u #$ .u #$ ?u #& ru #& v #$ )v$ u #  v  #$  Iv: (  : ?# \( & x sL( *  ",   .   0 yaQL( 7 "yL( ; y L( B {E L( F {"L( J {L( N {0L( R {3L( V |'L( Z |c<L( ^ '|\;L( b p| L( f |HL( j |f 0|L( l f "n f  p f  r f  t f  v o "y o  | o   o  o  x " x  x  x  x  "     "     +}eL(   }q<+&4 ~q<+"0 '~q\+&4 S~ Fl+.4~~ l+.0#~  +.4?~ C+.0\  +.4x. +.0[ N+.4 +.0V K+&4|+++++\+l++++<+L+\< \(\lL <l,+! !L"(L\ #L(<(\,|L,L$L<$$$ %,%L%l%%\$%|$|L&l< "(L#\\(l$| $,<l (\   ( (<,) | )),, <,<L\lL|\L)<) ,<L\\$l|$$ ,<L$\l|%<% ,<\%L\l||%% ,%<L\Ll)(%, ,, ,!(| < \|L\\\,<l|L \ < , l \ |# $!!\#,,# <, ,|&|&,\'l'  , L (||l!\l|  #%|L\ L \ l |  , < < ,$l(\,  l<<lL|+,\|ll|, < L \ l |   , < L \ l |   '& &<# ('<&L&,&"l"<!L!L|,(l<,!|(L!\ <$\L<% \L |l,| <L\))))))) **),*L*\*l*<*|******** +*|) <l l|'&&\\&''<%l&&',"l < ,l|''' <,, L<\),ll| """"""L<"LlL"\"  ! lL#econ act weighted pop by two ed groups age groups and sex.total econ act weighted pop by two ed groups*total econ act pop by ed group and sex&total econ act pop by two ed groups.population by two education and age groups.population 20 plus by two education groupsage groups 20 pluspopulation 19 and belowurban population 20 plusrural population 20 plus&urban fraction population 20 plus*urban fraction population 19 and belowurban populationGaborone population&Gaborone share of urban populationrural populationurban population fractionrural population fraction.population by low education and age groups<population by med and high education and age groups&population by two education groups POPBYAGELABOR FORCE POPULATION RATIOLABOR FORCE AGE GROUP&LABOR FORCE HEALTHY POPULATION RATIO.MEDICATIONmedication rate lookup.URBANIZATION.SUBSCRIPT -indexhivstatusneghivaidsall but oldest 5 yearsage01to04age of non tr minus oneage17to40age19to42age15to38age22to40age24to42age20to38age41to49age41to44subprevagesagegroupint1numsnum1num5num2num3num4 numa1 numa5 numa2 numa3 numa4 numb1 numb5 numb2 numb3 numb4 numc1 numc5 numc2 numc3 numc4 numd1 numd5 numd2 numd3 numd4ints .ControlJ#normx1(cnum1[gums],incubationtimemean,incubationtimestandarddeviation)#N#pi )Copyright 2001, IIASA@4 a9Version 1.0ni CC*@Arial NarrowClick Here to Go On to Main Menuje '`To Exit Click on "File" in the Upper Left and then on "Exit" "(.9?JPk '-8>H7LO 74?  N\ *( 7Z( 7I*( Lt( c*( t( cje `To Exit Click on "File" in the Upper Left and then on "Exit"VR u:@@<Century GothicMAIN MENUJE @@$CLICK ON A BOX BELOW OR EXIT^Z D"LEARN ABOUT AND POSSIBLY CHANGE MODEL ASSUMPTIONSRO ;D"LEARN ABOUT THE STRUCTURE OF THE MODELZU D" VIEW THE RESULTS OF PREVIOUSLY RUN SCENARIOS*( l 7S( 7?*( 7S( 7?*( 7S( 7?*( l m( Y*( ( l*( ?( EB= `D" HOW TO RUN THE MODELl *;EOXgv H7L$NJ u..@@@@@@ Click here to return to Main Menu20 ?!HIV NEGATIVE POPULATIONB@ FHIV POSITIVE ASYMPTOMATIC NON-MEDICATED&" d7MEDICATED&$ ?SYMPTOMATIC" zx((DEATHS:7 64  Incidence Rate:8 9  Aids Death RateB? ( Efficacy of Medication>; , Government Program" @) " @[m " @ m " @ " @,  * " @  3" @7  ]i "  @}  n "  @   "  @ :5 h^.@<HIV Dynamics 'YH7L(vs  *@Century GothicThe model may be run in a variety of ways. .(Century Gothic1. Click on the Set up a Simulation button on the Main Toolbar. Change the run name by typing a new name in the white box. ;Z#(Century Gothic2. Any highlighted variables in the model structure view may be changed by clicking on them and changing the variable value. #(Century Gothic3. To view the results click either on the Graph or Table button on the left Vertical Toolbar.^Z $> #:@,Century GothicRunning the Model B5 *@Century GothicFor more detailed information, please see the User's Manual. l)VR --,Century GothicMain Menub_ t *@Century Gothic Here is one example:  .ARdH7L{NJ 8..@@@@@@ Click here to return to Main MenuB@ 4Y&@0Parameter ModificationsJH u@@Click on the following Options:B@ ~1. Modify HIV ConstantsFD 2. Modify HIV Lookup TablesZV 8\3. Modify Population Projection Lookup Tables@ #1<KVk#8ERiH7Lww:6 Z&0HIV Constants*' 6P 1052,,0,1,0.0164 6'=Annual AIDS Base Death Rate*& P 9228,,0,7,0.1:5 %!9Annual AIDS Medication Costs*& P 988,,0,2,0.01RO >UHIV Prevalence Ratio Medium Education to Low EducationRN "$JHIV Prevalence Ration High Education to Low Education*' :P,1020,,0,2,0.01&# +P,972,,0,1,1JE /QNo AIDS Constant-- 0 for no AIDS, 1 for AIDS*' +{P 5628,,0,1,0.01RN 0IRelative ability to infect partner when on Medication., :P,7980,[low],0,1,0.01fa =L]Annual Rate at which the low education population on Medication Relapses*' CP,1388,,0,1,0.01zu MmBase Vertical Transmission Rate-- Base Rate at which Mother's transmit HIV to their children*' AP,8108,,0,1,0.01RN BPVertical transmission rate for Mother's on Medication2/ 5P,7980,[medium],0,1,0.012- 4P,7980,[high],0,1,0.01ZX <M^Annual Rate at which the high population on Medication Relapsesfd >P`Annual Rate at which the Medium Education Population on Medication Relapses*' 7P,1468,,0,1,0.01DB 4EFertility Reduction of HIV Positive Women61 //Change HIV Lookup Tables&" :!!Main Menuv  '.5_|H7L>; ;Jr.<Modify HIV Lookups <M LD 9 ,(1 ,@ PRESS "SET" ON THE TOOL MENU ABOVE. THIS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE VARIABLES, ALLOWING YOU TO CLICK ON THEM TO CHANGE THE VALUES.rp 6# PLEASE NOTE! MANY OF THESE LOOKUP TABLES ARE SUBSCRIPTED BY EDUCATION.>< //Change Population Projection Values&" ~!!Main Menu &-4^{H7LVS $UR@@$Modify Population Projection Lookup Tables '.9 j/# l'*< /@ PRESS "SET" ON THE TOOL MENU ABOVE. THIS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE VARIABLES, ALLOWING YOU TO CLICK ON THEM TO CHANGE THE VALUES.rp 9# PLEASE NOTE! MANY OF THESE LOOKUP TABLES ARE SUBSCRIPTED BY EDUCATION.&" !!Main Menu '7H7LBNJ e ..@@@@@@ Click here to return to Main Menu&$ x<7068,,Graph>: ST&0Total Population *( (( ...More Results$ #-?I[fvH7L&$ ,9180,,Graph>: C  Total AIDS Deaths&$ J<9244,,GraphFB ^^  Total HIV/AIDS Population&$ <9196,,GraphFC _  Total Medicated Population*% u,10060,,Graph>9 $<  Urban Population*% Sp,10108,,Graph>9 O!:  Rural Population&$ [,9212,,Graph:8 :  Medication Cost20 L%M$Results&" 9!!Main Menu(% :## More Results %=UiH7Ls64 g}<7308,[female,outagg2],Graph64 lm<7308,[female,outagg3],Graph^Y W  HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates for FEMALES, Age 20-24^Y l  HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates for FEMALES, Age 25-29NK a"~$Selected HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates&" x1!!Main Menu`H7L :lG?|:J#%R '$ 1%468;=8:"?**:/% CGIK26>% '?% %@' ($@%%@*WI@ PSUW[ :\#,?*d$:i'# ,cigikt"p-<u.##################z#u#p#k#f#a#\#W#R#M#H#C#>#9#4#/#*#%# #### ## DL0?@DL0?`DL0?DL0?DL0?DL0?DL0?DL0? DL0?@DL0?`DL0?DL0?DL0?DL0?DL0?DL0? DL0?@DL0?`DL0?DL0?DL0?DL0?DL0?DL0? DL0?@DL0?`DL0?DL0?DL0?DL0?DL0?DL0? DL0?@DL0?`DL0?DL0?DL0?DL0?DL0?DL0? DL0?@DL0?`D \Z <pbBs"E9lJJ:$%@Z l}Q?|%>w-Q?k?[Bn?\n?j?bf?V^?tU?>?&2?B??I|%>w-Q?k?[Bn?\n?j?bf?V^?tU?>?&2?B??VL|%>w-Q?k?[Bn?\n?j?bf?V^?tU?>?&2?B??O|Z>z ??:??>R>O>> >8g>z6>`v>(R|Z>z ??:??>R>O>> >8g>z6>`v>SU|Z>z ??:??>R>O>> >8g>z6>`v>1]V?5?@?j0?&@j@}#@@R @?F?:?0d?aaq?e?ܐ?j?љ?j?ܐ?e?aq?oS?F3??>h ====================k ====================m ====================Z?r,$? ,QMw<====================qz<====================|<====================jL0 DD? D=D=Rl,| ,Rl,|<,b>?333?L?fff?b2>?333?L?fff?bK>?333?L?fff?:Z(,?:1,?R~:pAAAAA2GA2NABU,B^, ?Bg,Bp,,?Ry,,J<?J<?J<?_\GGGGPsGy1G GFFFhF\BFTF0EȻEEPE???\GGG)Gff>H>2 ??,?ff>H> ??!-?u:@?NS?(d?l?lr?+v?7w?|?|?|?|?|?|?G GGȰG(GgG-G( GfF*_>l?*fD|L?*nJ@*vO0 D@D0A D@@D@`D@D@D@D@D@D@ D@@D@`D@D@D@D@D@D@ D@@D@`D@D@D@D@D@D@ D@@D@`D@D@D@D@j Xw>(\>X9>R>x==j[~>I>7>->x>>r  j%\|2 " n% %\$?|fff?Y 8 s% %\$?|=rv N w%\| ` z% %\$?|fff?v ~% %\$?|=j ,<,|'<,@* \?* l>J |%lHl* 0 DD? D?@D?`D?D?D?D?D?D? D@?@D333?`Dff&?D?D ?D?D?D? D?@D?`D?D?D?D?D?D? D?@D?`D?D?D?D?t: 0 DD A D@D @rN 0 DD A D@D@rb 0 DD A D@@D@*y ?* L>: $?Z 0>>ff&?L?33s?b 7=a>R^>@>/>5^=)\=T , 0% %%H, DL>,,,,% %,,,B , 0% %%H,DL>,,,,% %,,,*; <, 0% %%H,lL>,L,,%%L,,rj \,l%,lb} |,%<,  0 DDB DB@DB`DBDBDBDBDBDB DB@DB`DBDBDBDBDBDB DB@DB`DBDBDBDBDBDB DB@DB`DBDB* q@J  HlJ$ $. !00,pBpB00.BBF &00, aB aB00.\B\Bj_ ,00-zB?jm .00-OkB?{ 1 0 0 )-B.zB? 3 0 0 )-TtB.OkB?! 60 0 )-B.B? 80 0 )-J~B.TtB?jc ;,00.B?j =,00.J~B?2  @<$?'$$ $$%pB% zB%B%,B$#$$$## #%zB% B%B%,B%pB% zB%B%,B2. H<$?'$$ $$% aB% OkB%TtB%,J~B$#$$$## #%OkB% TtB%J~B%,\B% aB% OkB%TtB%,J~BKy QL<\#F#2## %%<<<l<\%# %$?<<<%<< <|<\%# %$?<< <%<<<<\%# %$?<<<%<<,<<\% %$?<<,<<\ \L<#F#2## %%<<<<%# %$?<<<%<< <<%# %$?<< <%<<<<%# %$?<<<%<<,< <% %$?<<,<<b;h,<|$?L<|b0Upl\XVr?y?|?@P~?"~?bvl\Vo?Yw?|?9~?~?Z`|\at?Xz?N}?K~??Z|\q?:y?j}?ҏ~?~?Z\*Uv?g|{?<~??EF?Z\s?~z?~?~?,?Z\ 0x?|?9~?X??Z\u?{?`~? 5?f?Z$\lz?~}?L??h?Z5\x?|?1(?y? ?6F?n??SZ?t$?`?~?d~?l %?l %>l :>* | zF. \+,?0   :X2  2`4 |2f7  | Jm; ' Rx? , $ ,   JC , $?  G L 0 0. L ' L  L ?zeL L 00. L ?? L 2rN | ?2O ?:R, <  , [l %|  cl %| %fl %| $>il %| IWll %| pol %| Jv l## %l l%%l l%%l lj l' %Ll,l ,l#%% l$?Ll%Ll lj7 l% lj  l% lZ" pAAAAA:xT  ,?\  ,' #, , , v  ,'# #, , , ,   ,'## #, , , , , "  ,'### #, , , , , , :o ,pA ,'#%, pA%, A,  ,'##%, pA%, A%, A, :24 ,'###%, pA%, A%, A%, A, ra ,'$####%, pA%, A%, A%, A%, A, ,,# %$@  ,,,,# %$A  ,,<l,%%% %L,l,\,l ,\,ll,%%% %L,l,\,l,,l\,*|l,#% %L,l,\,l% %,l,\,lFl%<l#%$?LlZl%ll#%$?Llzo$%%* 0$ %%L|%%L|$%%*  0$ %%L|%%L|$%%R#%@  ,% '\,, %#%@, :>! ,% '\,, # %#%@, %#%@, !# ,% '\,, ## %#%@, %#%@, %#%@, $"X# ,% '\,, #$## %#%@@, %#%@, %#%@, %#%@, Z"( ,% '\,, #0#$## %#%@, %#%@@, %#%@, %#%@, %#%@, ".,%?# , ,#/,%?# , ,0,%?# , ,*%4,@**8<@:/<L#<,2\#6@\@B=B\#@,B~#FE l,l#OG  ,l% '\,, %#%\l, j$pJ  ,l% '\,, #% #%$\l?, %#%\l, $N  ,l% '\,, # #% #%$\l@, % #%$\l?, %#%\l, j*%S  ,l% '\,, #0# #% #%$\l@@, % #%$\l@, % #%$\l?, %#%\l, %1Y  ,l% '\,, #@#0# #% #%$\l@, % #%$\l@@, % #%$\l@, % #%$\l?, %#%\l, &` ,l#  ,l%>$ ,l|  ,lG&c ,l#  ,l%*?$ ,l|  ,l\_&f ,l,lZv&h ,l,lZ&j ,l,lZ&l ,l,lZ&n ,l ,lj&p ,l%33s? ,lj&$q  ,l%fff? ,lj '4r ,l%Y? ,lj''Ds ,,l%L? ,ljB'Tt <,l%@? ,lj]'du L,l%333? ,ljtv \,l%ff&? ,lR'yl,%\,'{l|,$? '$? ,$?,Z'}l\,%fff?lL,~l,%?#l ,l,2|KLB2K<|6,l ,ld(I,ll+0 0 0,l|,l @(y,l+0 0 0,l,l,<@(,l+0 0 0,l,lL\l@(,l+0 0 0,lL,l|@` ),l,lj%),l%,lfff?j@),l %,lfff?BQ),llBb) ,l)l '$%Ll# #%l$?ll%l#%l%%Lll$?)Kl#l %$pA lr *el%l\ryl%l\$f,,<' % <,$?l,<#?%$l?l,<$L,<' %<,$?l,<#?%$l?l,<z*F ;\,l|,,lZ*q )\,\,|B* *\,\Z+ +\,\,B+ ,\,\Z0+ -\,\,BA+ .\,\ZX+ /\,\,B 0\,\J|+ 3, , J+ 6, , j+ 8,,'\, @J+ :,L,<J !<,\,<r+!@+k,,l|L,lZ,`!H,,\,|B,o!I,,\Z,,y!J,,\,B=,!K,,\ZT,!L,,\,Be,!M,,\Z|,!N,,\,B!O,,\J,!R<, <, J,!U<, <, j,!W<,,',, @J,!Y<,L<,<J![<,\<,<-"_*pL,\ 0l,\(<,\\JG"iL,L, ZG-S"lI|,lR\-"|, ,"|,% ,M,J-#,|,<:"#,-+#H,%L,(,\i#,% %L,(,\ 0,,# ,%L,(,\z?.#,%L,(,,\#,% %L,(,,\ 0<,L,#\,%L,(,,\r#l,<I,<,<z.@$|,<%l,<HL,lB.S$|,ljE/]$|,<'%%%l, 0<,L,HL,l| 0<,L,h/$|,% %l,HL,l|B$|,r/$,I\, ,$,<I%\,|% ,|Z$Il,<l<,b//% ,<l,<B/(I,lR0(K,l,<B(M,Z)P<,,<)VX<,|0 0&L<,| 0##,<,< |<,|%<, |,####,<,< |<,| <,|%<, |,%l <,|:0O*s,?:1W*u,<:1_*v,<?:g*w,LJo*z<K\lKLJy*~LK\ KL* <,|l# %,<|<<,|l%$?,<|L<,|lz1*Y|,l|,lr1*|,|,|R1+|,\r1+|,|,R2#+|,\r%2.+|,|,R:2?+|,\rW2J+|,|,R[+|,\J2f+, , J2q+, , z2|+,,'|, @J2+,L,<J+,\,<j+,,<I,<,<Z+ 0+< 0 #<<##<<<B+ +< 0 ,#<<,##<<<2,,K<R!,\',,AR/,l'#|r7,<,|,<,< |jM,<,|,L<,|lja,<,| 0#,<,< |<,|##,L<,|l,<,< |<,|,,<' #,<,<# #,<,< ,<4,#,,,,4,|#,,<,,<5,#,,,,,,)5-#,,<,,<L5,-L#,,L,,LD- #,,\,,\j5\-l#, ,j5n-l|#, ,<|j5-l#, ,,j5-l#, ,<j5-lL#, ,LLj-!l#, ,\Z(6-'| 0lZ?6-+|| 0|l|ZV6-.| 0lZm6-1| 0lZ6.4|L 0LlLZ.7| 0lr6.=< 0#,<,< ,<,##,L<,l,<,< ,<,rU7[.D< 0#,<,< <,<,<##,L<,<l,<,< <,<,<r7.J< 0#,<,< ,,<,,##,L<,,l,<,< ,,<,,r8.P< 0#,<,< <,<,<##,L<,<l,<,< <,<,<rl8/V< 0#,<,< L,<,L##,L<,Ll,<,< L,<,LrW/\< 0#,<,< \,<,\##,L<,\l,<,< \,<,\Z/d<%,< @r/i<| 0#,<,< |,<,|##,L<,|l,<,< |,<,|j/s,< 0#,<,< |,<,|##,L<,|l,<,< |,<,|r0}<<, 0#,<,< |,<,|##,L<,|l,<,< |,<,|R^0L,,\,</:k0,|%,,|l,|R:0,|%,,|l,|:0,|% $,,|,|$?|,|0,|% $,,|,|$?,|R: 1l<,< |;,1l, |%% $,,|,|?|,|;;N1l, |%% $,,|,|?|,|p;p1l, |%% $,,|,|?,|;1l, |%% $,,|,|?,|R1l<,||J1<,|l1<,|l##<,|l,l<,< |l<,|l1<,|l%<,|l<,|jD<2<,|<,|m<'2,|%,|$?|,|A2,|%,|$?,|r<[2,,|',@ro2,,|',@2L,|l%,,|l$?l,|2,|l%,,|ll,|2/=2\?2<=2\22\2l,%%%%L,l',l@$pA,\,l2l,%%% %L,l\,$?'$pA@,\,l)3l,% %L,l,\,lG3l,% %,l,\,le3 l' $ll @2{3K Z3AAAAAA23!K J>3*<,| >3,<PQ# %<$?,q <R?< ?35<PQ# %<$?,p <R?< U?94@<PQ# %<$?,p <R?<4J<,\P Q%<,$?%?,R?<,\b4U,<|,<,|b5f<<|,<,|l5lL<|,# #<,|ll<,< |l<,|lz4Z<,|lI##L<,|l,<,< |l<,|l##<,|l,l<,< |l<,|lb:5s\<|,L<,|l"@K5yL<PQ% %L<$?,<$?l<R?<-Au5L<P&Q#% %L<$?,<$?|<% %L<$?,<l<R?<rA5L<PQ# %L<$?,<% %L<$?,<|<R?<A5L,\PQ% %,$?,\,\R?,\ B6L,\PQ% %,$?,\,\R?,\beB96L<PQ%% %L<$?,<$?|<$?l<R?<*Bl6L<P6Q#%% %L<$?,<$?|<$?|<%% %L<$?,<$?|<l<R?<oC6L<P0Q#% %L<$?,<$?|<%% %L<$?,<$?|<|<R?<C7L,\PQ% %,$?,\$?,\R?,\.7L,\PQ% %,$?,\$?,\R?,\bV7<,\l<,\B72K 28K B82K28KD8<P.Q#%% %<$?,$?$?l%$R?3Ec8< P#Q%%% %Ll$?, $? $?l  R? E8<PGQ#5#%% %<$?,$?$?|%% %<$?,$?l%$R?ZwF9< P<Q%6#%% %Ll$?, $? $?| %% %Ll$?, $? l  R? GY9 <PAQ#/#% %<$?,$?%% %<$?,$?|%$R?*G9 < P6Q%0#% %Ll$?, $? %% %<l$?,l$? |l R? H: <P.Q#%% %<$?,$?$?l%$R?HT:$ <P#Q%%% %< $?,$?$?lR?0I:- <PGQ#5#%% %<$?,$?$?|%% %<$?,$?l%$R?I:6 <PBQ#5#%% %< $?,$?$?|%% %< $?,$?l%R?tJV;@ <PAQ#/#% %<$?,$?%% %<$?,$?|%$R?Z K;J <P<Q#/%*%"%%% %< $?,$?< $?,$?|%R?xK<T <P&Q#% %<$?,$?l%$R?RK<c < PQ%% %Ll$?, $?l  R? 2ZL<i <P7Q#%#% %<$?,$?|% %<$?,l%$R? L<=r < P2Q#%#% %Ll$?, $?| % %Ll$?, l %  R? ^M=| <P1Q## %<$?,% %<$?,|%$R?M= < P1Q#$#% %Ll$?, | % %<l$?,l|l%  R? JN)> <P&Q#% %<$?,$?l%$R?RNl> <PQ%% %< $?,$?lR?2,O> <P7Q#%#% %<$?,$?|% %<$?,l%$R? O> <P2Q#%#% %< $?,$?|% %< $?,l%R?0PC? <P1Q## %<$?,% %<$?,|%$R?P@ <P,Q## %< $?,% %< $?,|%R?PJ@ <,LlPQL,LlR?,Ll? <,<lPQL,<lR?,<lRQ? <,< |jsQ@ <PQ%%%<$?,<$?, $?l<R?l<*QA <P4Q#%%%<$?,<$?, $?|<%%%<$?,<$?, l<R?l<{RTA <P-Q#%%<$?,<$?, %%%<$?,<$?, |<R?l<ZRA < PQ%% %L<$?,<|<$?l<R?l<  USA < P0Q#%% %L<$?,<|<$?|<%% %L<$?,<|<l<R?l< S B < P*Q#% %L<$?,<|<%% %L<$?,<|<|<R?l<  TkB <,< \P Q% <,< $?,<\R?l<,< \"TB" < P3Q#,%%%%<$?,<, $?l<%%< $?,<$?,R?<< RT?1 <, \RTB2 <, |yUB3 < PMQ#8,#%%%%<$?,<, $?|<%%%%<$?,<, l<%%< $?,<$?,R?<< \CG < PFQ#1,#%%%<$?,<, %%%%<$?,<, |<%%< $?,<$?,R?<< VC\ (e <# ,%%%%<$?,<, $?l<$?%%< $?,<,FW>E  <#<,#%%%%<$?,<, $?|<$?%%%%<$?,<, l<$?%%< $?,<,jW;F  <#5,#%%%<$?,<, $?%%%%<$?,<, |<$?%%< $?,<,R G ) <,\R.H <<, |lZ;H L<|, <,|JH \<,|,% %<,|,  J\XgH # < JoXH " < BXH  << BH  << ZXH %|\jX%I %|$?\:X2I <::I! <YEI$ %%\$>%$l D ף;5YWI' %%$?\$>%$l D ף;`YlI) %%%\#?%$l D ף;fff?YI, %%%\#?%$l D ף;=YI/ %%%$?\#?%$l D ף;fff?I2 %%%$?\#?%$l D ף;=bI8 #"## %,,<$?|%,,<$?|%,,<$?, ,<JU |#%#,,<,,<|%,,<:J` #|JJd <'@rJi \,<%H,l<ZJo  ,%,L,l\,-Kz  ,%,<,l|,+[IK ,% %,\,`K ,% %,|,s[zK ,% %,\,K ,% %,|,[K ,% %,\,K ,% %,|,rK <,|,<,< |rK <,|<, |E\ L | ,' %H, D@"L | ,' %H,D@:L  ,<%,<\,<L  ,<%,<\,<L , ,<# # ,< ,< ,<L < ,<# # ,<,<,<JL L <,< ,<JL \ <,, ,<M l ,<# #,L,<l,<,<b"M | ,<,L,<l3M  <,# #| ,<,<,<ZOM  < 0L < <Z^M  < 0\ < <rmM  ,< 0< ,<l ,<rM  ,< 0, ,<l ,<:M  , <:M#  , <JM'  ,, ,<JM-  !,, ,<J^^M8 ,!<,|^M: ,!<,%D<,,z^M@ ,!\%%%\|?,^MA ,!\% %%$?\|?,J^ NB ,!<\JNC ,!<\R$NG ow]< %,<,%lbWo]<,%,<,<%lbpo]<L%,<,\%lbo]<l%,<,|%lbo]<%,<,%lb]<%,<,%ljo]%<,L$,<,\ljo]%<,\$,<,l$lj p^%<,|$,<,$lj'p^%<,,<,ljBp(^%<,|,<,<lj]p:^%<,,<,,ljxpL^%<,,<,<ljp^^%<,L,<,Lljpp^%<,,<,\ljp^%<,L,<,ljp^%<,<,<,$ljp^%<,$,<,$ljq^%<,$,<,$lj5q^%<,$,<,$ljPq^%<, %,<,%ljkq^ %<,,%,<,<%ljq_ %<,L%,<,\%ljq_ %<,l%,<,|%ljq$_%<,%,<,%lj6_%<,%,<,%lK_%<,# #%<,%<,%<,g_ &<,% #%<,%<,|<,R_&&,, &<,:_,,&,&,j_1<&'#&&&b_8L&'#&&,&Z_?\&,,%<,Zr_Dl&<%<_Gl&<#%<%<r_L|&<%l&<|<_P|&<%l&<|<z7s`U&<%|&<z$`Y&<%|&<Rks7`^&,&<RD`a&,&<ZsQ`e&<,|&<Z``h&<,|&<Jso`l&,&<J{`o&,&<Js`s&\&j`v&#\&\&Jt`{&,&&J`~&,&&Z`&$$&&z` '#%&= >%6&R^?z`'#%&z?%6&>R`,'' '# '':`<'%L?,'J`L'# '%&<'Ja\'%L'Hl'lz al'0 DL>D? Dk>D>D(>b%a|'#'%&$?<':0a''L':6a''|'B>a'&BHa'&JRuRa',&J^a',&2ja Kruqa'#,#<L$,#<\$rua'#,#<|$,#<rua'#,#<|,#<rua'#,#<,#<Lra'#,#<,#<LRa'',#<'Ba (',&2b'K$J$b,H,(,l2v.b ,(0 DD? D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDD2cwb,(0 DD? D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDD2c,(0 DD? D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDD*c# $@Bc*,,===Bc/,===*c5=2cDK\l2cHK\ 2cL KL2cP,KL*cTl2cX,*c]<2cbl(|(((2cgK Bcl2K 2dq|K 2 du,$K 2dz< K 2d|K\LB(d2K|LB4d2K\\B?d2KL(BKd(2K\2Td(K|B[d<2K \:cdlK \2}dK LBd2K \2dK|2dK <Bd 2K Zd,lK\lK\L2dKJdK\ KL2dL#KLbd "K|K< K Lrd(2 K\ K, K \ "d2KL$%L|\l$$<,<L\$$$$%<%\%|%%%2&e&K|%-e2K\$%Ll$$<,<L\$$$$%<%\%|%%%Ve2KLL<<,<L\2ie\K\2pel$K2we$K lB~e2K <2e<K2e,K 2e<K\2eLKl2e \K 2eK\2e$K\2e$K2e$K<2e$KL2e"%K2e&<%K,2e*\%K<|2e.|%K2e2%K2e6%K,L2e:(K Be>(2K (BfB(2K (2 fF )KBfJ)2K )BfN,)2K )2%fR<)K\2,fVL)K 23fZ\K B:f^2K\2CfbKBJff2K\|Sfj\)K KK,K<|K2hfnl)K 2ofrK2vfvK,2}fzK<|2f~KBf|)2K))l)Bf 2K))Bf<2K,*<*Bfl2K|**Bf2K**Rf+|)?@@@@Rf ?@@@@Rf,<?@@@@Rf\l?@@@@Rf|?@@@@*fl*fD*g| D* g*g?:!<+ % '?% %@L+ ' ($\ \@%%@2!L+ I@B.\+  j. #  l+,l#,l|%|+,l |+,l' $,l,l|@+,l#,l%+,l,<+,l' $,l,l@+,l#,l%+,l\l+,l' $,lL,l@+,l#,lL%+,l|+,l' $,l,lL@R +<"<D" "<%<"<|"< H7Lggg&&#%"&$'?&&%b&?'% @%%$$(@'@%%&I@?&&#2& D#L?@D#L?`D#L?D#L?D#L?D#L?D#L?D#L? D#L?@D#L?`D#L?D#L?D#L?D#L?D#L?D#L? D#L?@D#L?`D#L?D#L?D#L?D#L?D#L?D#L? D#L?@D#L?`D#L?D#L?D#L?D#L?D#L?D#L? D#L?@D#L?`D#L?D#L?D#L?D#L?D#L?D#L? D#L?@D#L?`D \&$%@V{REAL GDP := GET XLS DATA('C:\BOT NAM DATA\BOTS GDP COMPUTATIONS.XLS','GDP SIM','B','C1')~~NO HIV| REAL GDP PER CAPITA = REAL GDP/TOTAL POPULATION*1000000000~~|}|&%>w-Q?k?[Bn?\n?j?bf?V^?tU?>?&2?B??|&%>w-Q?k?[Bn?\n?j?bf?V^?tU?>?&2?B??|&%>w-Q?k?[Bn?\n?j?bf?V^?tU?>?&2?B??|&Z>z ??:??>R>O>> >8g>z6>`v>|&Z>z ??:??>R>O>> >8g>z6>`v>|&Z>z ??:??>R>O>> >8g>z6>`v> &V?5?@?j0?&@j@}#@@R @?F?:?0d?&aq?e?ܐ?j?љ?j?ܐ?e?aq?oS?F3??> &==================== &==================== &====================6,&?$ ,<&====================<&====================<&====================FL D$D? D=D=.l,|& ,.l,|&<,Z&{0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 0.95, 0.9}>?333?L?fff?Z&{0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 0.95, 0.99}>?333?L?fff?Z&{0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 0.95, 0.99}>?333?L?fff?",&?",&?2&pAAAAA&A&A",&", &?",&",,&?2,&,B<&{ SEXACTIVE[AGE15TO19,low] }?F<&{ SEXACTIVE[AGE15TO19,medium] }?F<&{ SEXACTIVE[AGE15TO19,high] }?\&GGGGPsGy1G GFFFhF\BFTF0EȻEEPE???\&GGG)Gff>H>2 ??,?ff>H> ??!-?u:@?NS?(d?l?lr?+v?7w?|?|?|?|?|?|? f{percentage of pop with low education by sex and age[female,age groups]= 1,1,0.3,0.542229,0.565169,0.676286, 0.750892,0.826558, 0.891244,0.923888,0.946972,0.961608,0.965691,0.986314,0.986314,0.986314, 0.986314,0.986314,0.986314,0 ~ fraction ~ DAT.3 These are supposed to be the proportions of men in 1993 by 5 year age group who are in the lowest educational group. This was gotten from the 1991 Census of Botswana. We have to get the exact citation. |}&G GGȰG(GgG-G( GfF l&? |&L? &@  D@$D0A D@@D@`D@D@D@D@D@D@ D@@D@`D@D@D@D@D@D@ D@@D@`D@D@D@D@D@D@ D@@D@`D@D@D@D@ B&w>(\>X9>R>x==F&~>I>7>->x>>F&\%|V&\%?$|%fff?V&\%?$|%=F&\%|V&\%?$|%fff?Z&\%?$|%= lF,<,|&<,'@ l\&? l&> "|&l%l  D$D? D?@D?`D?D?D?D?D?D? D@?@D333?`Dff&?D?D ?D?D?D? D?@D?`D?D?D?D?D?D? D?@D?`D?D?D?D? N D$D A D@D @N D$D A D@D@N D$D A D@@D@ l&? &L>&?$ ^&>>ff&?L?33s?{relfec[AGE15TO19] = 0.6,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.95}>&7=a>R^>@>/>5^=)\= :{IN THIS SECTION WE COMPUTE AGE- AND EDUCATION-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES F0R WOMEN WHO ARE HIV NEGATIVE },& , D%L>%%,,,,,,%%,,& ,D%L>%%,,,,,,%%,<,& ,l%L>%%,L,,L,%%,J\,l&,l%:|,&<,% D$DB DB@DB`DBDBDBDBDBDB DB@DB`DBDBDBDBDBDB DB@DB`DBDBDBDBDBDB DB@DB`DBDB &q@{IN THIS SECTION WE COMPUTE AGE- AND SEX-SPECIFIC MORTALLITY RATES FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE HIV NEGATIVE }&l&&$^&,pBpB.BBb&, aB aB.\B\B6&-zB?6&-OkB?J &-B).zB?J &-TtB).OkB?J&-B).B?J&-J~B).TtB?6,&.B?6,&.J~B?*<&?$$%pB$ %zB$%B$,%B'%zB# %B#%B#,%B$%pB$ %zB$%B$,%B*<&?$$% aB$ %OkB$%TtB$,%J~B'%OkB# %TtB#%J~B#,%\B$% aB$ %OkB$%TtB$,%J~BL<\&<<%<%l<\#?$<<%<#<<% <%|<\#?$<<% <#<<%<%<\#?$<<%<#<<%,<%<\#?$<<%,<%<\L<&<<%<%<#?$<<%<#<<% <%<#?$<<% <#<<%<%<#?$<<%<#<<%,<% <#?$<<%,<%<f{survival rate normal[sex,age] = 1 ~ ~ |},<|&?$L<|{female survival rates 0-0.5, ...1.5 to 2.5,... 3.5 to 4.5 : each row represents a level, level 17 = le 60.0}l\&XVr?y?|?@P~?"~?{male survival rates 0-0.5, ...1.5 to 2.5,... 3.5 to 4.5 : each row represents a level, 17 = le56.46, 18 = le58.828 19 = le 61.222, 20 = le 63.637, 21 = life exp 66.030}l\&Vo?Yw?|?9~?~?B|\&at?Xz?N}?K~??B|\&q?:y?j}?ҏ~?~?B\&*Uv?g|{?<~??EF?B\&s?~z?~?~?,?B\& 0x?|?9~?X??B\&u?{?`~? 5?f?B\&lz?~}?L??h?B\&x?|?1(?y? ?{female survival rates - each row is a level}&?n??SZ?t$?`?~?d~?%l #?%l #>%l  &| F &, ?  &  |& & | * & ' . , & , $  & , &?$  R L & L . L ' L ?B L & L .?? L  | &? &?, < & , < 'L {THIS SECTION COMPUTES THE PREVALENCE RATES BY 5 YEAR AGE GROUPS FOR WOMEN BY EDUCATION. THESE RATE PERTAIN ONLY TO THE SUSCEPTIBLE POPULATION. }l &| %bl &| %bl &| %bl &| %bl &| %bl &| % l&l l%#l l%%#l l%% l&Ll%,l ,l'% l%?$Ll#Ll% lF l& l%F l& l% {***************************************************************************** ******************************************************************************* WHAT FOLLOWS HERE IS A TENTATIVE COMPUTATION OF THE AVERAGE INCIDENCE RATE FOR 15-19 YEAR OLD SA WOMEN The basic idea is that we have two observations, one at 1993 and another at 1997. If the incidence rate depends linearly on time, those two observations should be sufficient to compute the initial incidence rate and its change over time. This depends on a linearization of the prevalence rate as a function of the incidence rate which is not exact. This two equation in two unknowns formulation was programmed beginning on July 19, 1999. It provides a consistent way of estimating incidence and prevalence rates and thus avoids inconsistencies that can possibly arise when the two are approximated separately. Separate estimation is likely to be ok at high ages, but could be problemmatic here. WCS ****************************************************************************** ****************************************************************************** } &pAAAAA ,&?f ,&, #, ', ~ ,&, #, #, ', ,&, #, #, #, ', ,&, #, #, #, #, ',  ,&pAr ,&, %pA#, %A',  ,&, %pA#, %A#, %A',  ,&, %pA#, %A#, %A#, %A',  ,&, %pA#, %A#, %A#, %A#, %A', Z,,&@$ % ,#,Z,,&A$ % ,#,<l&,L,l%,%\,l% ,%\,ll&,L,l%,%\,l%,,l%\,|l&,L,l%,%\,l#,l%,%\,lNl&<l%#?$%LlRl&ll%#?$%Ll>&%$%& L%|%$L%|%%$%& L%|%$L%|%%$%&&#{ 3*}@%r ,&\,', %#@%%,  ,&\,', %#@%%, ##@%%,  ,&\,', %#@%%, ##@%%, ##@%%,  ,&\,', %#@@%%, ##@%%, ##@%%, ##@%%, 2 ,&\,', %#@%%, ##@@%%, ##@%%, ##@%%, ##@%%, R,&?% ,# ,R,&?% ,# ,R,&?% ,# ,,&@<&@L&<#,\&@"\&@#," l,l&  ,l&\,', %#\l%%,   ,l&\,', %#\l$?%%, ##\l%%,   ,l&\,', %#\l$@%%, ##\l$?%%, ##\l%%, B  ,l&\,', %#\l$@@%%, ##\l$@%%, ##\l$?%%, ##\l%%,   ,l&\,', %#\l$@%%, ##\l$@@%%, ##\l$@%%, ##\l$?%%, ##\l%%, v ,l&  ,l#>% ,l|$  ,lv ,l&  ,l#*?% ,l|$  ,l6 ,l&,l6 ,l&,l6 ,l&,l6 ,l&,l6 ,l& ,l> ,l&33s?% ,l>  ,l&fff?% ,l> ,l&Y?% ,l> ,,l&L?% ,l> <,l&@?% ,l> L,l&333?% ,l> \,l&ff&?% ,l*l,&%\,bl|,&?$ ?$ ,'?$,2l\,&fff?%lL,Jl,&?%l ,#l,|?$L"?$<2|{xx3= SUM(singleyearpop1[female,education!,AGE15TO19!,y1993]*sarate[female,education!,AGE15TO19!]* asfrsa[education!,y1993,AGE15TO19!]) ~ ~ | irx = HIV prevalence observed 1993 and 1997[y1993,age group4]*xx3 / (XX2*(reduced HIV fertility*(1-HIV prevalence observed 1993 and 1997[y1993,age group4])+ HIV prevalence observed 1993 and 1997[y1993,age group4])) ~ ~ | XX4 = SUM(susc single year pop1[female,education!,AGE15TO19!,y1997]* sarate[female,education!,AGE15TO19!]*asfrsa[education!,y1993,AGE15TO19!]*sayears[AGE15TO19!,education!]* hiv ratio prev[education!]) ~ ~ | xx5= SUM(singleyearpop1[female,education!,AGE15TO19!,y1997]*sarate[female,education!,AGE15TO19!]* asfrsa[education!,y1993,AGE15TO19!]) ~ ~ | irx2 = HIV prevalence observed 1993 and 1997[y1997,age group4]*xx5 / (XX4*(reduced HIV fertility*(1-HIV prevalence observed 1993 and 1997[y1997,age group4])+ HIV prevalence observed 1993 and 1997[y1997,age group4])) ~ ~ | }{******************************************************************}{This is a new version on 18/08/98}{initial exp prev[education,iyear,agerep group]= INITIAL(proportion of births from HIV mothers[education,iyear,agerep group]* (1/(1+prev param*(initial female nonsus[agerep group]/(1-initial female nonsus[agerep group]))))) ~ ~ | TENTATIVE CHANGING THIS NOTE THIS NOTE THIS },l& ,l{/(1-initial female nonsus[education,agerep group])}+{$$$Calculation to calculate to linear interpolate HIV prevalence$$$},l&,l|,l @n,l&,l,l,<@n,l&,l,lL\l@n,l&,lL,l|@:,l&,lB,l&,l%fff?B,l &,l%fff?*,ll&*,l&l &Ll%l%$?#l#l$%l'%l#Ll%l%?$fl&l #$pA% lNl&l%\Nl&l%\Z{ $$$ End of Calculation$$$$}{*****Calcultion for initial average expanded prevalence*****}{HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997 exp[education,iyear,age of female reproduction] = INITIAL ( hiv prevalence calculated1993 and 1997 [education,iyear,age of female reproduction] * ((1- initial nonsuscept[female,education,age of female reproduction])/ (1 + (prev param - 1)*initial nonsuscept[female,education,age of female reproduction]))) ~ ~ | },,<& <,%?$l,<'?#l$?%l,<L,<&<,%?$l,<'?#l$?%l,<{ initial ave exp prev[education,age15]=INITIAL((HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997 exp[education,y1993,age15]+HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997 exp [education,y1997,age15])/2) ~ ~ | initial ave exp prev[education,age16]=INITIAL((HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997 exp[education,y1993,age16]+HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997 exp [education,y1997,age16])/2) ~ ~ | initial ave exp prev[education,age17to40]=INITIAL((HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997 exp[education,y1993,age15to38]+HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997 exp [education,y1997,age19to42])/2) ~ ~ | initial ave exp prev[education,age41to44]=INITIAL((HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997 exp[education,y1993,age41to44]+HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997 exp [education,y1997,age41to44])/2) ~ ~ | initial ave exp prev[education,AGE45TO49]=INITIAL(initial ave exp prev[education,age44]*0.5) ~ ~ | }{*** END of CALCULATION*****}{***********************************************************}{Calculation for initial moving average of ave exp prev for 1993 and 1997}{***********************************************************}\,l|&,,l:\,&\,|&\,\&:\,&\,&\,\&:\,&\,&\,\&:\,&\,&\,\&., &, ., &, B,&,\, '@.,L&,<.,\&,<&{end of moving average calculation}{***********************************************************}{Calculation for initial moving average of ave exp prev for 1993 and 1997}{***********************************************************},,l|&L,l:,,&\,|&,,\&:,,&\,&,,\&:,,&\,&,,\&:,,&\,&,,\&.<, &<, .<, &<, B<,&,,, '@.<,L&<,<.<,\&<,<{end of moving average calculation}{****************************************************************}{******************* Calculation of AGE CONSTANTS ************* ****}L,\& l,\<,\(\.L,&L, :{ ********* END OF AGE CONSTANTS CALCULATION********************}{ ***** CALCULATION OF HIV PREVALENCE FOR 1993*******************}{HIV prevalence calculated by age and education 1993[education,age]= INITIAL( hiv prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1993,age]*(1+prev param*(initial nonsuscept[female,education,age]/(1-initial nonsuscept[female,education,age])))) ~ ~ |}{ HIV prevalence calculated by age and education 1993[education,age] = INITIAL( prx[age,education,y1993]) ~ ~ added July 29, 1999 | }|,l&6|,& ,|,& ,%,{* ( 1 - initial nonsuscept[female,education,AGE15TO19]) }.,&|,<",&{*********************END OF CALCULATION************************}{*********Calculation of new hiv incidence rates using moving ave of ave exp prev and age constants***},&L,%,(\,&L,%,(\% ,,N ,&L,%,(\J,&L,%,,(\,&L,%,,(\% <,L,P\,&L,%,,(\:{hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age of female reproduction]= If then else(time=1993,HIV incidence as from 1994[education,age of female reproduction], Initial HIV incidence[education,age of female reproduction]) ~ ~ |}l,<&I,<,<J|,<&l,<%L,l&|,l&|,<&l,% <,L,%L,l%|' <,L,V|,&l,%L,l%|&|,&N,&I\, ,^,<&I\,%| ,%|"{******END OF CALCULATION****************************************}{************************************ REPLACING NEW HIV INCIDENCE BY FEMALE INCIDENCE AGE WITH NEW PR95 ********************************************************************}l,<&l<,{new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age22to40]= INITIAL( 1 - (((1-HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1997,age24to42])/(1-HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1993,age20to38]))^0.25)) ~~| {new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age15]= INITIAL( new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age17]*0.5) ~ ~ | new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age16]= INITIAL( new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age17]*0.75) ~~|} new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age41to49]= INITIAL( if then else (new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age40] > 0, new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age40]*0.5,0)) ~~| new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age15] = INITIAL ( (HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1997,age17]*SEXACTIVE[age17,education])/ (SEXACTIVE[age15,education]+SEXACTIVE[age16,education]+SEXACTIVE[age17,education])) ~~| new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age16] = INITIAL ( (HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1997,age18]*SEXACTIVE[age18,education])/ (SEXACTIVE[age15,education]+SEXACTIVE[age16,education]+SEXACTIVE[age17,education]+SEXACTIVE[age18,education])) ~~| new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age17] = INITIAL ( (HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1997,age19]*SEXACTIVE[age19,education] - HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1993,age15]*SEXACTIVE[age15,education])/ (SEXACTIVE[age16,education]+SEXACTIVE[age17,education]+SEXACTIVE[age18,education]+SEXACTIVE[age19,education]- 4*HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1993,age15]*SEXACTIVE[age15,education])) ~~| new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age18] = INITIAL ( (HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1997,age20]- HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1993,age16]*SEXACTIVE[age16,education])/ (1+SEXACTIVE[age17,education]+SEXACTIVE[age18,education]+SEXACTIVE[age19,education]- 4*HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1993,age16]*SEXACTIVE[age16,education])) ~~| new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age19] = INITIAL ( (HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1997,age21]- HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1993,age17]*SEXACTIVE[age17,education])/ (2+SEXACTIVE[age18,education]+SEXACTIVE[age19,education]- 4*HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1993,age17]*SEXACTIVE[age17,education])) ~~| new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age20] = INITIAL ( (HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1997,age22]- HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1993,age18]*SEXACTIVE[age18,education])/ (3+SEXACTIVE[age19,education]- 4*HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1993,age18]*SEXACTIVE[age18,education])) ~~| new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age21] = INITIAL ( (HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1997,age23]- HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1993,age19]*SEXACTIVE[age19,education])/ (4 - 4*HIV prevalence calculated1993 and 1997[education,y1993,age19]*SEXACTIVE[age19,education])) ~ ~ | }{new HIV incidence rate[female,education,age of female reproduction]= new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age of female reproduction] ~ ~ | new HIV incidence rate[female,education,age of female nonreproduction]= 0 ~ ~ | new HIV incidence rate[male,education,age of male incidence]= new hiv incidence by female incidence age[education,age of female reproduction] ~ ~ | new HIV incidence rate[male,education,age of male nonincidence]= 0 ~ fraction ~ |},<&l,<&,l&2,&l,<",& 6<&,,<{&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&}{ Calculation of prevalence for each year }{&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&}{HIV exp prev[sex,education,age]=if then else(NEG population by sex education age[sex,education,age,susc]=0,0, zidz(SUM(HIV population by sex education hivstat age[sex,education,hivstat!,age,susc])+AIDS population by sex education age[sex,education,age,susc],(SUM(HIV population by sex education hivstat age[sex,education,hivstat!,age,susc])+ AIDS population by sex education age[sex,education,age,susc]+NEG2 population by sex education age[sex,education,age,susc])+(prev param*NEG2 population by sex education age[sex,education,age,nonsusc]))) ~ ~ |}<,|&L<,|& ,<,< |#<,|#<, |%,,<,< |#<,|# <,|#<, |%,#l% <,|,&?,<&,<&?,L&&<?\$l$L&L?\$ $L <,|l&,<|%<<,|l#?$,<|%L<,|l2{*********************************************************************************}{ Calculation for moving average of HIV exp prev for each year}{*********************************************************************************}|,l|&,lB|,&|,|*|,\&B|,&|,*|,\&B|,&|,*|,\&B|,&|,*|,\&*, &, *, &, F,&,|, '@*,L&,<*,\&,<B,,<&I,<,<:& <& <#<<#<#<& &<& ,<#<,<#<#<,?$<*\&,,'A l&|#'V<,|&,<,< |N<,|&,L<,|l<,|& ,<,< |#<,|,L<,|l#,<,< |#<,|,<&,<#,<',<#,<# ,<^&,,#,,^|&,,<#,,<^&,,,#,,,^&,,<#,,<^L&,,L#,,L^&,,\#,,\Fl&, ,#Fl|&, ,<#|Fl&, ,,#Fl&, ,<#FlL&, ,L#LFl&, ,\#6|& l6||& |l|6|& l6|& l6|L& LlL6|& l<& ,<,< #,<,,L<,l#,<,< #,<,<& ,<,< <#,<,<,L<,<l#,<,< <#,<,<<& ,<,< ,#,<,,,L<,,l#,<,< ,#,<,,<& ,<,< <#,<,<,L<,<l#,<,< <#,<,<<& ,<,< L#,<,L,L<,Ll#,<,< L#,<,L<& ,<,< \#,<,\,L<,\l#,<,< \#,<,\2<&,< %@<|& ,<,< |#,<,|,L<,|l#,<,< |#,<,|,<& ,<,< |#,<,|,L<,|l#,<,< |#,<,|<<,& ,<,< |#,<,|,L<,|l#,<,< |#,<,|2L,&,\,<^{******************************************************************************** *********************************************************************************** ************************************************************************************},|&,,|%l,|^,|&,,|%l,|,|&,,|$,|%?$|,|,|&,,|$,|%?$,|.l<,< |&l, |&,,|$,|%?%|,|l, |&,,|$,|%?%|,|l, |&,,|$,|%?%,|l, |&,,|$,|%?%,|6l<,||& l*<,|l& l<,|l&<,|l#,l<,< |l#<,|lf<,|l&<,|l%<,|J<,|&<,|f,|&,|%?$|,|f,|&,|%?$,|N,,|&,'@N,,|&,'@rL,|l&,,|l%?$l,|j,|l&,,|l%l,|\&?\&\&l&,L,l%,l'@%$pA%,%\,ll&,L,l%\,%?$$pA'@%,%\,lvl&,L,l%,%\,lvl&,,l%,%\,lV l&l$l '@? $6&AAAAAA? $*<,|&<&P<%?$,# <{*(1-AIDS death rate) * (1-transition into medium education[sex,all but youngest])}1?<f<&P<%?$,# <{* (1-AIDS death rate)* (1-transition into high education[sex,all but youngest])+ new AIDS by age[sex,low,all but oldest]* (1-AIDS death rate)* transition into medium education[sex,all but youngest]}?<*<&P<%?$,# <{* (1-AIDS death rate) + new AIDS by age[sex,medium,all but oldest]*(1-AIDS death rate)* transition into high education[sex,all but youngest]}1?<{this changes in the above 3 equations made on 3/14/99 }<,\&P<,%?$?%,?<,\B,<|&,<,| <,|l&IL<,|l#,<,< |l#<,|l<,|l#,l<,< |l#<,|lB<<|&,<,|lL<|&,<,|l#l<,< |l#<,|lB\<|&,L<,|lL<&PL<%?$,<%?$l<?<L<&PL<%?$,<%?$|<#L<%?$,<%l<?<L<&PL<%?$,<#L<%?$,<%|<?<L,\&P,%?$,\%,\?,\L,\&P,%?$,\%,\?,\L<&PL<%?$,<%?$|<%?$l<?<:L<&PL<%?$,<%?$|<%?$|<#L<%?$,<%?$|<%l<?<*L<&PL<%?$,<%?$|<#L<%?$,<%?$|<{high}1%|<?<L,\&P,%?$,\%?$,\?,\L,\&P,%?$,\%?$,\?,\{age0 nonsuscept[male,low,age0]=lookup function for nonsuscept male low education(Time) ~ ~ | age0 nonsuscept[female,low,age0]=lookup function for nonsuscept female low education(Time) ~~| age0 nonsuscept[male,medium,age0]=lookup function for nonsuscept male medium education(Time) ~~| age0 nonsuscept[female,medium,age0]=lookup function for nonsuscept female medium education(Time) ~~| age0 nonsuscept[male,high,age0]=lookup function for nonsuscept male high education(Time) ~~| age0 nonsuscept[female,high,age0]=lookup function for nonsuscept female high education(Time) ~ ~ |}<,\&l<,\"? $ 2? $ "?$2?$*<&P<%?$,%?$%?$l#%$?< &PLl%?$, %?$ %?$l % ? <&P<%?$,%?$%?$|#<%?$,%?$%l#%$?V< &PLl%?$, %?$ %?$| #Ll%?$, %?$ %l % ? v<&P<%?$,%?$#<%?$,%?$%|#%$?B< &PLl%?$, %?$ #<l%?$,l%?$ %|l% ? .<&P<%?$,%?$%?$l#%$?<&P< %?$,%?$%?$l%?<&P<%?$,%?$%?$|#<%?$,%?$%l#%$?~<&P< %?$,%?$%?$|#< %?$,%?$%l#%?v<&P<%?$,%?$#<%?$,%?$%|#%$?f<&P< %?$,%?$%< %?$,%?$%|#%?{************************************************************************************ **************************************************************************************** NONSUSCEPTIBLES *************************************************************************************** ************************************************************************************** }<&P<%?$,%?$l#%$?< &PLl%?$, %?$l % ? N<&P<%?$,%?$|#<%?$,%l#%$?>< &PLl%?$, %?$| #Ll%?$, %l # % ? 6<&P<%?$,#<%?$,%|#%$?:< &PLl%?$, %| #<l%?$,l%|l# % ?  <&P<%?$,%?$l#%$?<&P< %?$,%?$l%?J<&P<%?$,%?$|#<%?$,%l#%$?:<&P< %?$,%?$|#< %?$,%l#%?6<&P<%?$,#<%?$,%|#%$?n<,<l&PL,<l?,<l.<,< |&2<, \& l l"<&P< %?$,#< %?$,%|#%?{ *************************************************************************************** ************************************************************************************8 END NONSUSCEPTIBLES **************************************************************************************** *************************************************************************************** }<,Ll&PL,Ll?,Ll<&P<%?$,<%?$, %?$l<?l<><&P<%?$,<%?$, %?$|<#<%?$,<%?$, %l<?l<"<&P<%?$,<%?$, #<%?$,<%?$, %|<?l<< &PL<%?$,<%|<%?$l<?l< 6< &PL<%?$,<%|<%?$|<#L<%?$,<%|<%l<?l< (< &PL<%?$,<%|<#L<%?$,<%|<{low}2%|<?l< <,< \&P <,< %?$,<\?l<,< \>< &P,<%?$,<%, %?$l<%#< %?$,<%?$,?<< 2<, |&< &P,<%?$,<%, %?$|<%#<%?$,<%, %l<%#< %?$,<%?$,?<< < &P,<%?$,<%, %#<%?$,<%, %|<%#< %?$,<%?$,?<< {new AIDS by sex education and age[sex,low,all but youngest] = DELAY FIXED (SUM( HIV population by sex education hivstat age [sex,low,hiv all but oldest!,all but oldest,susc]* (1-normal death rate[sex,all but youngest])* (AIDS rate [hiv all but oldest!])* (1-transition into medium education[sex,all but youngest])),1, SUM(initial HIV population[sex,low,hiv all but oldest! ,all but oldest,susc]* (1-normal death rate[sex,all but youngest])* (AIDS rate [hiv all but oldest!])* (1-transition into medium education[sex,all but youngest]))) ~~|}{new AIDS by sex education and age[sex,low,all but youngest] = SUM( HIV population by sex education hivstat age [sex,low,hiv all but oldest!,all but oldest,susc]* (1-normal death rate[sex,all but youngest])* (AIDS rate [hiv all but oldest!])* (1-transition into medium education[sex,all but youngest])) ~ ~ |}{new AIDS by sex education and age[sex,low,all but youngest] = SUM( HIV population by sex education hivstat age [sex,low,hiv all but oldest!,all but oldest,susc]* (1-normal death rate[sex,all but youngest])* (AIDS rate [hiv all but oldest!])* (1-transition into medium education[sex,all but youngest])) ~ ~**Warren Jan 03, 2001 put into comment form and replaced with next equation |} <&,<%?$,<%, %?$l<%?$#< %?$,<%,{new AIDS by sex education and age[sex,medium,all but youngest] = SUM( HIV population by sex education hivstat age [sex,medium,hiv all but oldest!,all but oldest,susc]* (1-normal death rate[sex,all but youngest])* (AIDS rate[hiv all but oldest!]) *(1-transition into high education[sex,all but youngest])+ HIV population by sex education hivstat age[sex,low,hiv all but oldest! ,all but oldest,susc]*(1-normal death rate[sex,all but youngest])* (AIDS rate[hiv all but oldest!])*transition into medium education [sex,all but youngest] ) ~ ~**Warren Jan 03, 2001 put into comment form and replaced with next equation |} <&,<%?$,<%, %?$|<%?$#<%?$,<%, %l<%?$#< %?$,<%,{new AIDS by sex education and age[sex,high,all but youngest] = SUM( HIV population by sex education hivstat age [sex,high,hiv all but oldest!,all but oldest,susc]* (1-normal death rate[sex,all but youngest])* (AIDS rate[hiv all but oldest!])+ HIV population by sex education hivstat age [sex,medium,hiv all but oldest!,all but oldest,susc]* (1-normal death rate[sex,all but youngest ])*(AIDS rate[hiv all but oldest!])* transition into high education[sex,all but youngest]) ~ ~**Warren Jan 03, 2001 put into comment form and replaced by next equation |} <&,<%?$,<%, %?$#<%?$,<%, %|<%?$#< %?$,<%,6{new AIDS by sex education and age[sex,medium,all but youngest] = SUM( HIV population by sex education hivstat age [sex,medium,hiv all but oldest!,all but oldest,susc]* (1-normal death rate[sex,all but youngest])* (AIDS rate[hiv all but oldest!]) *(1-transition into high education[sex,all but youngest])+ HIV population by sex education hivstat age[sex,low,hiv all but oldest! ,all but oldest,susc]*(1-normal death rate[sex,all but youngest])* (AIDS rate[hiv all but oldest!])*transition into medium education [sex,all but youngest]) ~ ~ |}{new AIDS by sex education and age[sex,high,all but youngest] = SUM( HIV population by sex education hivstat age [sex,high,hiv all but oldest!,all but oldest,susc]* (1-normal death rate[sex,all but youngest])* (AIDS rate[hiv all but oldest!])+ HIV population by sex education hivstat age [sex,medium,hiv all but oldest!,all but oldest,susc]* (1-normal death rate[sex,all but youngest ])*(AIDS rate[hiv all but oldest!])* transition into high education[sex,all but youngest]) ~ ~ |} <,\&2<<, |l&:L<|&, <,|b\<,|&,<,|%, % l'L \ < &{ (HIV births*"%boys")/17 brackets on 3/7/99}Z < &{ (HIV births * (1-"%boys"))/17 brackets on 3/7/99 }" << &" << &{AIDS infants by sex and education[male,low]= (HIV births*"%boys")/17 ~~| AIDS infants by sex and education[female,low]= (HIV births * (1-"%boys") )/17 ~~| MARCH 5, 1999. I DON'T KNOW WHY THE BIRTHS ARE DIVIDED BY 17 HERE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PROBLEM OF THE POPULATION GROWING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN BIRTHS - DEATHS. REMOVING THE 17 AND TESTING WHETHER THIS MAKES THE PROBLEM GO AWAY - aids infants seems to allocate the hiv births twice 3/7/99 }&|%\2&|%?$\<&<& lF&%\%>$l$ D% ף;R&%?$\%>$l$ D% ף;R&%\%?#l$ D% ף;%fff?R&%\%?#l$ D% ף;%=Z&%?$\%?#l$ D% ף;%fff?Z&%?$\%?#l$ D% ף;%= l{NEG births= SUM(HIV MOTHER BIRTHS[female,education!,age of female reproduction!]) *(1-vertical transmission rate)+SUM(AIDS MOTHER BIRTHS [female,education!,age of female reproduction!,susc]) *(1-vertical transmission rate) +SUM(NEG MOTHER BIRTHS[female,education!,age of female reproduction!]) ~ people/year ~ | HIV births= (SUM(HIV MOTHER BIRTHS[female,education!,age of female reproduction!]) +SUM(AIDS MOTHER BIRTHS [female,education!,age of female reproduction!,susc]))* vertical transmission rate ~ people/year ~ |}&,,<%?$|#,,<%?$|#,,<%?$#, ,<l'L |&,,<#,,<%|#,,<%l'L &#|&<&'@ B\,<&,l%<< 'L ^{NEG MOTHER BIRTHS[female,education,age of female reproduction]= SUM(NEG population by sex education age[female,education,age of female reproduction,susceptibility!])* NEG mother ASFR[female,education,age of female reproduction] ~ people/year ~ |} ,&,L,l%\,^ ,&,<,l%|,l'L Z,&,%\,%V,&,%|,%l'L Z,&,%\,%V,&,%|,%l'L f,&,%\,%^,&,%|,%l'L N<,|&,<,< | lF<,|&<, | lR| ,&%, D'@R| ,&%,D'@ N{NEG mother births[female,education,age of female reproduction]= SUM(NEG population by sex education age[female,education,age of female reproduction,susceptibility!])*NEG mother ASFR[female,education,age of female reproduction] ~ people/year ~ |} ,<&,<%\,<l'L ^ ,<&,<%\,<l'L r, ,<& ,<# ,<# ,<r< ,<& ,<#,<#,<2L <&,< ,<2\ <&,, ,<~l ,<&,L,<l#,<#,<B| ,<&,L,<ln <&,| ,<#,<#,<: <& L < <: <& \ < <H ,<& < ,<l ,<J ,<& , ,<l ,<" &, <" &, <. ,&, ,<. !,&, ,<*,!<,|&,!<,&<,{+ new AIDS by age[sex,education,all but oldest]}/%,:,!\&\%|%?%,F,!\&?$\%|%?%,*,!<\&*,!<\&l'L 6l"<L&l"<\%<"<L*|"<&"<|"<\&PG2"<&,l"<|'PG:"<&l"<'l"<:"<&l"<'l"<:"<&l"<l'l"<:"<&l"<'l"<l:"<&l"<'l"<B"<& l"<\l"<.&,#<R#<&<#<#< l,#<|&,L!<,|l#,l!<,< |#,,!<,|l'?#,L<,|l#,<,< |l#,<,|l <#&,L!<,L#l#,l!<,< L##,,!<,L#l',L<,L#l#,<,< L#l#,<,L#l \#&,,!<,|l#,l!<,< |#,L!<,|l' &l##|# lR|#<|&#<|#\<|#,<|&#&,#&#&#&#&,#&#&#6#&,,!<,|ll'L 6&,<,|l l{Total HIV population= SUM(HIV population by sex education hivstat age[sex!,education!,hivstat!,age!,susceptibility!]) ~ people ~ |}|&,<,< |l#,<, | l:#&,<, |#& $%#$&|#6l#&,L<,|l l{total population by sex education age[sex,education,age] = SUM(NEG population by sex education age [sex,education,age,susceptibility!]) +SUM( HIV population by sex education hivstat age [sex,education,hivstat!,age,susceptibility!]) +SUM( AIDS population by sex education age [sex,education,age,susceptibility!]) ~ ~ |}L<,|&,L<,|l#,<,,$|l#,<,|l.<$&,<J&,<#,<B<L$&,L<,\lB<\$&,L<,l$lB<|$&,L<,$lB<&,L<,lB<|&,L<,<lB<&,L<,,lB<&,L<,<lB<L&,L<,LlB<&,L<,\lB<L&,L<,lB<<&,L<,$lB<$&,L<,$lB<$&,L<,$lB<$&,L<,$lB< %&,L<,%lB<,%&,L<,<%lB<L%&,L<,\%lB<l%&,L<,|%lB<%&,L<,%lB<%&,L<,%l lF%<,L$&,L<,\lF%<,\$&,L<,l$lF%<,|$&,L<,$lF%<,&,L<,lF%<,|&,L<,<lF%<,&,L<,,lF%<,&,L<,<lF%<,L&,L<,LlF%<,&,L<,\lF%<,L&,L<,lF%<,<&,L<,$lF%<,$&,L<,$lF%<,$&,L<,$lF%<,$&,L<,$lF%<, %&,L<,%lF%<,,%&,L<,<%lF%<,L%&,L<,\%lF%<,l%&,L<,|%lF%<,%&,L<,%lF%<,%&,L<,%l l{hiv pop by sex and age[sex,age]= SUM(HIV population by sex education hivstat age[sex,education!,hivstat!,age,susceptibility!]) ~ people ~ |}#<|&,<,,$|l l2<L$&,#<\2<\$&,#<l$2<|$&,#<$2<&,#<2<|&,#<<2<&,#<,2<&,#<<2<L&,#<L<<&,#<\2<L&,#<2<<&,#<$2<$&,#<$2<$&,#<$2<$&,#<$2< %&,#<%2<,%&,#<<%2<L%&,#<\%2<l%&,#<|%2<%&,#<%2<%&,#<%N%<,L$&,<,,$\lN%<,\$&,<,,$l$lN%<,|$&,<,,$$lN%<,&,<,,$lN%<,|&,<,,$<lN%<,&,<,,$,lN%<,&,<,,$<lN%<,L&,<,,$LlN%<,&,<,,$\lN%<,L&,<,,$lN%<,<&,<,,$$lN%<,$&,<,,$$lN%<,$&,<,,$$lN%<,$&,<,,$$lN%<, %&,<,,$%lN%<,,%&,<,,$<%lN%<,L%&,<,,$\%lN%<,l%&,<,,$|%lN%<,%&,<,,$%lN%<,%&,<,,$%lB<L$&,<,\lB<\$&,<,l$lB<|$&,<,$lB<&,<,lB<|&,<,<lB<&,<,,lB<&,<,<lB<L&,<,LlB<&,<,\lB<L&,<,lB<<&,<,$lB<$&,<,$lB<$&,<,$lB<$&,<,$lB< %&,<,%lB<,%&,<,<%lB<L%&,<,\%lB<l%&,<,|%lB<%&,<,%lB<%&,<,%l lF%<,L$&,<,\lF%<,\$&,<,l$lF%<,|$&,<,$lF%<,&,<,lF%<,|&,<,<lF%<,&,<,,lF%<,&,<,<lF%<,L&,<,LlF%<,&,<,\lF%<,L&,<,lF%<,<&,<,$lF%<,$&,<,$lF%<,$&,<,$lF%<,$&,<,$lF%<, %&,<,%lF%<,,%&,<,<%lF%<,L%&,<,\%lF%<,l%&,<,|%lF%<,%&,<,%lF%<,%&,<,%l ln%<,&%<,#%<,#%<,n &<,&%<,#%<,%|<,2&,&, &<,",&&,&,:<&&&#&'&2L&&&#&',&:\&,&,%<,6l&<&%<Rl&<&%<#%<R|&<&l&<%|<R|&<&l&<%|<J&<&|&<%J&<&|&<%2&&,&<2&&,&<:&<&,|&<:&<&,|&<.&&,&<.&&,&<*&&\&B&&\&#\&.&&,&&.&&,&&2&&$&$&F '&&%{0.25}= >#&%{0.80}R^?F'&&%{0.75}z?#&%{0.20}>",'& '' '#'<'&L?%,'"L'& '#&%<'\'&L'%l'lVl' DL>$D? Dk>D>D(> *|'&'#&%?$<''&L'''&|''&'&&&'&&.'&,&.'&,& ?$N'&,#<L$#,#<\$N'&,#<|$#,#<N'&,#<|#,#<N'&,#<#,#<LN'&,#<#,#<L.'&,#<''{LABOR FORCE HEALTHY POPULATION RATIO = (SUM(Total population by sex and 5 year groups [sex!,LABOR FORCE AGE GROUP!])- SUM(AIDS by sex and 5 year groups[sex!,LABOR FORCE AGE GROUP!])) /TOTAL POPULATION ~ ~ |} (&,&''?$$&,&,(,l,( D$D? D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDD,( D$D? D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDD,( D$D? D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDD $&@&,,&===&,&===&=?\$l?\$  ?$L,?$Ll?,? \(<?l(?|(((? $  \(? $ 2 \(|? $  \(,$? $ < ? $  \(|?\$L \("?|$L2 \(?\$\2 \("?$L2( \( (?\$2(?|$<? $\2f{***** This subscripts are for moving average of ave exp prev**********}l? $\? $L"? $\2?|$? $<" ? $2{End of subscripts for moving average}{***************************************************************}l?\$l\$L?$*?\$ $LL#?$L2 "?|$<$  $L:(?\$ ,$  $\2 "?L$$%2|?\l$$<,<L\$$$$%<%\%|%%%&?|$%?\$$%2?l$$<,<L\$$$$%<%\%|%%% \(J?$L2<?<,<L\\?\$l$?$$? $l"? $ 2<<?$,?$ <?$\L?l$\?$ ?$\$?\$$?$$?$<$?L$%?$<%?$,\%?<$||%?$%?$%?,$L(? $"(? $2("(? $2( )?$")?$2 )",)?$2 )<)?$\L)?$ \? $ "?$\2?$"?$\2|R\)? $$$,<$|$l)? $?$?$,?<$|?$"|)?)$)2l)" ?)$)2"<?,*$<*2"l?|*$*2?*$*2.+|)&?@@@@. &?@@@@.,<&?@@@@.\l&?@@@@.|&?@@@@l?&D L |& D L & L &? L tgH7L88&Internally defined simulation time.These rates refer to Botswana in 1991 and come from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Database, version May, 1, 2000. Data are not given by education.rrelative earnings figures are from the Greener paper and come from the 1995 labor force survey of BotswanaIN 5 YEAR AGE GROUPS IN 1993"age rep groups nonsusceptilbiles&THE NUMBERS 15, 16, 17, 18, AND 19bDAT.1 Midyear population ,by Age and sex for Botswana:1993( U.S. Bureau of the Census website)DAT.3 These are supposed to be the proportions of men in 1993 by 5 year age group who are in the lowest educational group. This was gotten from the 1991 Census of Botswana. We have to get the exact citation.DAT.2 1997 female population Midyear population ,by Age and sex for Botswana:1997( U.S. Bureau of the Census website) This population is used to calculate prevalence rates, which are used to compute incidence rates.0.9 ADDED 10/23/99>Change "No AIDS constant" to zero for no AIDS in population6base annual death rate for those with active AIDS.proportion with active AIDS dying each year61 INDICATES NO REDUCTION; 0 INDICATES NO AIDS deaths61 INDICATES NO REDUCTION; 0 INDICATES NO HIV\!\!\!Bexponent in the relationship between prevalence and incidenceRweight given to nonsusceptibles in relation between prevalence and incidencejthis rate is used to multiply the female incidence rates by age and education to derive the male rates.*standard deviation of incubation times.mean time from infection to full-blown AIDS1993nthis is where we compute population by single year of age by dividing the 5 year aggregates by 5&Proportion of boys to girls at birth:transmission of HIV from HIV+ mothers to their childrenB1 INDICATES NO REDUCTION; 0 INDICATES NO vertical transmission.1993 CHANGED FROM 5.25 TO 5.00 ON 10/23/992 AIDS fertility is reduced TO this fraction>fertility reduction due to HIV:HIV fertility reduce BY thisFertility rate without HIVNRELATIVE FECUNDABILITY BY AGE. 1 IS THE FECUNDABILITY OF WOMEN 20 YEARS OLD (AND OLDER) THESE NUMBERS ARE JUST MADE UP. WE SHOULD CONSIDER THE SENSITIVITY OF RESULTS TO PLAUSIBLE CHANGES . NEW RATES ABOVE ARE ADJUSTED TO MAKE ASFRSA AT 19 AND AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY AT AGE 20 MORE CONSISTENT. THIS CHANGE WAS MADE ON 10/23/99&0.2 ADDED IN NUMERATOR ON 10/23/99:0.2 ADDED IN NUMERATOR ON 10/23/99 NEW AS OF 10/23/99NEW AS OF 10/23/99>user-specified female life expectancies from 1993 to 20202mean time from HIV infection to full-blown AIDS:**Warren Jan 03, 2001, changed below to include hiv16rthis is part of the numerator the the adjusted prevalence rates Prevalence rates refer to susceptible peoplefthis is part of the denominator of the adjusted prevalence rates Those rates refer to susceptiblesB these prevelance rates are to be applied to susceptibles ONLYJthe coefficient of irdelta was 3. It was changed to 7 on Aug, 1, 1999Vdenominator removed June 28, 1999 - I believe it is identical to adjust prev rates6added 7/12/99 after problems with earlier versionssusceptbility taken out on Aug 1, 1999 conceptually this is the prevalence among susceptibles regardless of sexual activity. It can be used to allocate the susceptibles in 1993Nthese are rates for sexually active susceptibles (NO, I THINK IT IS THE REVERSE. THESE RATES ARE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR SEXUAL ACTIVITY AT AGE 15-19 SEE HIV INCIDENCE AS FROM 1994 ; 10/24/99 and must be used with other groups. apparently the initial hiv incidence rates are igored. the initial hiv incidence rates look strange..**Warren, added education on Jan. 17, 2001***Warren Jan 04, 2001, added hiv16 terms6average prevalence in the age groups 15-19 to 50-54:SUPPLEMENTARY:SUPPLEMENTARY:SUPPLEMENTARY:SUPPLEMENTARY*initial nonsuscept include subscriptsNNew aids by sex education and age replaces new aids by age on March 14, 1999subscript changed 3/15/99subscript changed 3/15/99B**Warren Jan 03, 2001, added medication rate and relapse rate**Warren Jan 03, 20012hiv all but newest replaces hivstat on 3/14/99NEW SPECIFICATION 10/22/99>**Warren, added term on Jan 04, 2001, related to medication>**Warren, added term on Jan 04, 2001 relating to medication&CHANGE FROM ABOVE MADE ON 10/23/99FAGE 20TO49 USED TO BE AGE OF FEMALE REPRODUCTION CHANGED ON 10/23/99(**Warren, added Jan 04, 2001JAGE20TO49 USED TO BE AGE OF FEMALE REPRODUCTION CHANGED AS OF 10/23/99includes males and females,>**Warren, added Jan 04, 2001, includes males and females,&added new AIDS by age here on 3/8/99changed 3/8/99 to T Births:**Warren modified on Jan 3, 2001, added line with hiv16"**Warren added on Jan 3, 20001."**Warren added on Jan 4, 20012**Warren, Jan 03, 2001, line with hiv16 added6**Warren Jan 03, 2001, hivstatex in place of hivstatJ**Warren, Jan. 09, 2001, hivstat!, replaced by hivstatex!in lines above**Warren added Jan 4, 2001**Warren added Jan 4, 2001**Warren added Jan 4, 2001**Warren added Jan. 05, 2001"**Warren, added Jan. 05, 2001:**Warren, added Jan. 08, 2001 for rural-urban division:**Warren, added Jan 08, 2001 for rural-urban division:**Warren, added Jan. 08, 2001 for rural-urban divsion**Warren, added Jan. 08, 2001 for rural-urban divsion, Namibia figures in brackets, figures for Botswana chosen to correspond with data and forecasts in NDP8, and yield plausible future urbanization rates:**Warren, added Jan. 08, 2001 for rural-rban division:**Warren, added Jan. 08, 2001 for rural-urban division:**Warren, added Jan. 08, 2001 for rural-urban division"**Warren, added Jan. 08, 2001:**Warren, added Jan. 9=08, 2001 for rural-urban division:**Warren, added Jan. 08, 2001, for rural-urban division:**Warren, added Jan. 08, 2001 for urban-rural division:**Warren, added Jan. 08, 2001 for urban-rural divisionF**Warren, changed on Jan. 05, 2001 to labor force total in numerator**Warren added Jan 3, 2001**Warren added Jan 4, 2001**Warren added Jan 04, 2001, cost in thousands of Pula, $2,000 per treatment year times 5.5 Pula to the U.S. dollar, exchange rate as of Jan. 11, 2001**Warren added Jan 3, 2001Z**Warren added Jan 4, 2001, this is the relative infectability of people on medication**Warren, added Jan 04, 2001F**Warren Jan. 3, 2001, hiv16 is the state for people on medication&one year age cohorts of a populationage cohorts except infant6age cohort preseding each member of all but youngestsubscripts for moving avrage:**Warren. added Jan 08, 2001 for rural urban division" Simulation Control Parameters&The final time for the simulation.&The initial time for the simulation..The frequency with which output is stored.&The time step for the simulation.7I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@I@?pAAAAAAAAAAAAA??33>???@ @@@`@@@@@@@@@AAAA A(A0A8A@AHAPAXA`AhApAxAAA@??????????%>%>%>Z>Z>Z>w-Q?w-Q?w-Q?z ?z ?z ?k?k?k????[Bn?[Bn?[Bn?:?:?:?\n?\n?\n????j?j?j?>>>bf?bf?bf?R>R>R>V^?V^?V^?O>O>O>tU?tU?tU?>>>>?>?>? > > >&2?&2?&2?8g>8g>8g>B?B?B?z6>z6>z6>???`v>`v>`v>D7=a>R^>@>/>5^=)\=L>???@======================================================================================================================== D?@@@@?@@@@?@@@@?@@@@?@@@@q@L??@pAAAAA>ff>H>2 ??,?ff>H> ??!-?u:@?NS?(d?l?lr?+v?7w?|?|?|?|?|?|?G GGȰG(GgG-G( GfF0d?======>>ff&?L?33s????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????pApApA>>>???333?333?333?L?L?L?fff?fff?fff?Vo?Yw?|?9~?~?XVr?y?|?@P~?"~?q?:y?j}?ҏ~?~?at?Xz?N}?K~??s?~z?~?~?,?*Uv?g|{?<~??EF?u?{?`~? 5?f? 0x?|?9~?X??x?|?1(?y? ?lz?~}?L??h?c?Y?II?~?1~?v~?R~~?R ~?^}?E|?Kz? x?et?~n?Ie?W?C?}%(?S??n??SZ?t$?`?~?d~?=w>(\>X9>R>x==~>I>7>->x>>@@PGPG??aI 'GIACEAKMSU@OQ@WsXXX';WspBW W'EWce+X gi+Xkm+X%7Ltt DDDk>>(> D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DD???????????????????????????? DD?? DD?? DD== DD DD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DD???????????????????????????? D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DD???????????????????????????? D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DD???????????????????????????? D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDD@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@ D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDD????????@?333?ff&?? ?????????????????? D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDDDD D@D`DDDD DD@ @ DD@@ DD@@@///---\\\ :L<%^E!@ 1:I:\prommer\New Models\Current.vdf 9:Current 15:0,0,0,0,0,0 19:5,0 27:0, 4:Time 5:cost of medication 24:0 25:100 26:100 6:age group1 6:age0 6:col1 6:female 6:k0 6:low 6:neg 6:nonsusc 6:num1 6:numa1 6:numb1 6:numc1 6:numd1 6:outagg1 6:y1993