Europe’s Population at a Turning Point

by Wolfgang Lutz, Brian C. O'Neill, Sergei Scherbov
Science 299:1991-1992 [28 March 2003].
Reprinted as RR-03-006 by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

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Low birthrates in Europe — resulting in part from the current trend toward later childbearing — have begun to generate what demographers call "negative population momentum." This implies that even if over the next decades the average number of children per woman increases to two, the population will continue to shrink (assuming no migration), and future aging will be exacerbated.

These are the key findings of IIASA's Population Project and the Austrian Academy of Sciences published in the March 28th issue of Science. Governments might look at polices that give women more options for planning when to have children, suggest the authors. Possible starting points: childcare, labor laws, part-time work options, or subsidized housing for young parents. Press release (pdf).

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Last updated: 24 Feb 2011