Introduction SkillsBeliefs & Attitudes

Unlike long-term projections of economic growth or energy use, demographic forecasts tend to have relatively low error margins, even for forecasts several decades ahead. Traits that change systematically along cohort lines and as a function of age can therefore be projected with comparatively low error margins. Our projections incorporate migration flows, which affect the population distribution of skills and beliefs depending on the migrant’s characteristics in these dimensions. We also consider the effect of fertility differences, combined with the intergenerational transmission of the traits of interest.

These projections are likely to substantially improve our ability to foresee important changes, which in turn can allow us to improve policies. It is expected that viewed together, such analyses will result in significant new insights about likely social and economic challenges associated with ageing and demographic change in Europe and the appropriate policies for coping with them.

Responsible for this page: Katja Scherbov
Last updated: 25 Nov 2009