Dalton, M., Jiang, L., Pachauri, S., and B.C. O'Neill. (2007) Demographic change and future carbon emissions in China and India.
Population Assosiation of America, March 28- March 31, New York.

Abstract:
This paper investigates whether projected changes in the demographic characteristics of Chinese and Indian households over the next century could have a substantial influence on consumption, economic growth, energy demand, and carbon dioxide emissions. We use new household projections for China and India that model changes in population size, urbanization, and the size and age structure of households over the next 100 years. The initial economic characteristics of different household types, including demand for consumer goods, supplies of labor, and capital, are estimated from household surveys and production data for each country. A global energy-economic growth model simulates economic growth as well as changes in consumption of various goods, direct and indirect energy demand, and carbon emissions over time. Effects of demographic change are compared under different scenarios that include technical change. Results show that explicit consideration of urbanization leads to a substantial increase in projected emissions, while aging leads to a decrease. The net effect of demographic change is to increase projected emissions from China by 45% by the end of the century, and from India, by 15-35%.

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Last updated: 13 Apr 2007