IIASA - Program on Population and Climate Change

Population and Climate Change

Final Program

All presentations and discussions will be in the Gvishiani Room, located on the first floor of IIASA.

	Monday, 10 April

9.00	Opening
	Leen Hordijk, Director, IIASA	Welcome
	Brian O'Neill, PCC Program, IIASA	Conference Overview

9:30	Lessons From The Past
	Chair: Michael Oppenheimer
9:30-9:55	Paul Crutzen, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry	How and why the science of ozone depletion changed
9:55-10:20	Arnulf Grübler, IIASA	Technological learning (slides)
10:20-10:45		Discussion
10:45		Break

11:15	Simulating Learning
	Chair: Klaus Keller
11:15-11:40	Michael Schlesinger, University of Illinois	The dependence of climate sensitivity on non-sulfate aerosol radiative forcing
11:40-12:05	Mort Webster, Univ. North Carolina - Chapel Hill	Uncertainty in integrated assessments
12:05-12:30		Discussion
12:30		Lunch

14:00	Integrated analyses
	Chair: Michael Obersteiner
14:00-14:25	Alistair Ulph, Manchester University	International environmental agreements under uncertainty when learning reveals differences between countries
14:25-14:50	Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton University	Negative learning
14:50-15:15		Discussion
15:15		Break

15:45	Alternative approaches: Learning in economics
	Chair:Warren Sanderson
15:45-16:10	Charles Kolstad, UC Santa Barbara	Uncertainty, learning and adaptation
16:10-16:35	Nicolas Treich, INRA, Toulouse	The effect of learning on consumption
16:35-17:00		Discussion
17:00-17:30		Tour of Schloss Laxenburg
18:30		Conference Dinner

	Tuesday, 11 April

9:00	Lessons From the Past
	Chair: Arnulf Grübler
9:00-9:25	Chris Wilson, IIASA	The future isn't what it used to be: Why demographers change their minds
9:25-9:50	Jonathan Koomey, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab	Long-term energy forecasts: is useful learning possible? (slides)
9:50-10:15		Discussion
10:15		Break

10:45	Alternative approaches
	Chair: Charles Kolstad
10:45-11:10	Minh Ha Duong, CIRED/CNRS, Paris	Learning as combining imprecise evidence (slides)
11:10-11:35	Andreas Lange, Univ. Maryland	Decisions under uncertainty – alternatives to expected utility
11:35-12:00		Discussion
12:00		Lunch

13:30	Simulating Learning
	Chair: Michael Schlesinger
13:30-13:55	Brian O'Neill, IIASA	Learning about the carbon cycle
13:55-14:20	Klaus Keller, Penn. State Univ.	Learning about the climate sensitivity: confronting models with reality
14:20-14:45		Discussion
14:45		Break

15:15	Integrated analyses
	Chair: Mort Webster
15:15-15:40	William Pepper, ICF Consulting	Learning in the Climate Change Risk Assessment Framework (CCRAF)
15:40-16:05	Warren Sanderson, SUNY Stony Brook	Population and learning in climate change decision analysis
16:05-16:30		Discussion
16:30		Wrap-up discussion, Publication plans, etc.
19:00		Optional Dinner (in Vienna)

Responsible for this page: Katja Scherbov
Last updated: 20 Apr 2006

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

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Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0

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