|
|
|
 |
Innovative methods and tools developed by the IME for effective coping with inherent uncertainties and risks have been adapted for supporting design of robust policies addressing several key problems related to Greenhouse Gases (GHG), especially in the context of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Countries that ratified the protocol committed themselves to reduce their combined CO2 emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6) on the whole to 5.2% below 1990 levels. Countries can compensate their not-achieved emission reductions by purchasing emission rights from Parties that succeeded in reducing their emissions below the committed levels.
However, actual implementation of the Protocol requires appropriate handling of the uncertainties related to accounting and acknowledging of the countries' emission reductions. Inadequate treatment of uncertainties can create serious political and economic problems. Therefore, a rational insight is urgently needed to bridge science and policy-making before international negotiations on the post-Kyoto policy process are finalized.
The collaboration of the IME with IIASA's LUC and FOR Programs aims at the development and application of innovative methods and tools for designing robust Kyoto mechanisms and policies to deal with inherent uncertainties and risks. IME fills a unique niche under this collaboration which encompasses various activities. These are interlinked and unfold in rather broad research agendas:
1. Robust emission trading under the Kyoto agreement
Emissions trading (ET) is considered to be an economic, incentive-based alternative to command-and-control GHG emission regulations. A properly designed and implemented ET can be an effective economic way to reduce the total costs of meeting emission reduction goals. This requires a dedicated methodology for robust handling of uncertainties and reducing the aggregate costs of GHG mitigation measures in a fair and mutually beneficial way. Multi-agent aspects of the ET require stable coalitions and sequential trading (pricing) schemes to account for safety constraints (e.g., the risks of underestimating or overestimating emissions, or the risks associated with price volatility). More...2. Discounting approaches for Kyoto flexible mechanisms
Trading today’s investments against future benefits requires proper discounting of values over time. However, the costs and benefits of any precautionary mitigation or adaptation measures should not be evaluated on the basis of traditional economic approaches, such as the concept of net present value (NPV) and traditional discounting. Our innovative approaches allow economic evaluation of Kyoto mechanisms on the basis of safety constraints and the so-called stopping time associated with the moment when uncertain emission changes are detected or market volatility passes critical tresholds. More...3. Stochastic modeling for the analysis of emission uncertainties
Scarce and imprecise (or even inaccurate) emission estimates imply the need for developing innovative approaches to derive the required information. For instance, from aggregate data on emissions we derive emissions at finer spatio-temporal scales and information on their variability. The later can hint at unusually diverse uncertainty conditions at local levels. To cope with the scarce and imprecise emissions data, we develop stochastic techniques to analyze emission trajectories, and apply novel downscaling methods. These enables estimation of local implications emerging from global tendencies.
Responsible for this page: Amalia Priyatna
Last updated:
17 Nov 2011
|
|
|
Schlossplatz 1
A-2361 Laxenburg, AustriaPhone: (+43 2236) 807 0
Fax: (+43 2236) 71 313
Web: www.iiasa.ac.at
Contact Us
Copyright © 2009-2011 IIASA
ZVR-Nr: 524808900
Disclaimer