Midway and retrospective analysis of emission changes are less advanced than preparatory analysis of emission changes.

So far, midway analysis still focuses on emissions rather than emission changes. Midway analysis is an attempt to assess information on an emissions path at some point in time between base year and commitment year/period. It considers a signal’s path realized so far vis-à-vis a possible path toward the agreed-upon emission limitation or reduction commitment. In this process, the dynamical moments (velocity acceleration, etc.) of the historical and envisioned paths are compared, which indicates (first-order control) whether or not it is possible to achieve the emission commitment. Midway analysis generally incorporates information from emissions prior to the base year to determine the signal’s dynamical moments more accurately. The techniques explored so far to grasp the dynamics of (mostly) anthropogenic CO2 emissions encompass: polynomial regressions (Gusti & Jęda, 2002); integral transforms (Dachuk, 2003); and smoothing splines, parametric modeling and geometric Brownian motion modeling (Jęda & Nahorski, 2004; Nahorski & Jęda, 2007). A related technique based on the analysis of short-term versus long-term attainability and controllability has been followed by Smirnov (2005) and Pivovarchuk (2007; forthcoming).

Retrospective analysis of emission changes becomes important when countries seek to assess their actual achievements in the commitment year/period. FOR distinguishes between two fundamentally different approaches: a static and a dynamic approach. The static approach is identical to the one taken under preparatory SD except that the agreed-upon emission limitation or reduction commitment is replaced by the actual emission achievement. The emission signal is evaluated in terms of uncertainty, detectability or statistical significance, risk, etc., as described above. In contrast, the dynamic approach additionally considers how the emission signal has actually evolved between the base year and the commitment year/period, taking its dynamics into account. Here, our expertise gained under midway analysis will serve as a platform as it also aims at evaluating full emission paths.

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Last updated: 07 Jan 2008