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| Concept |
| Rural
development is a process, in which typically a large number of actors
in many different sectors of society is involved: local
farmers, EU administrators, representatives of tourist boards,
international business managers of the food industry, local
politicians - to mention just a few. Moreover, the process is
affected by a broad spectrum of underlying driving forces -
from the ongoing demographic transition (aging) to emerging trends in
technology and from changes in consumer preferences and lifestyles
to new EU legislation and subsidy policies. |
It
is obvious, that such a complex of decisions, influences, structural
changes and underlying driving factors cannot be represented in a
single "real-world" model, because we would have to deal
with far too many unknown, unmeasured, or immeasurable
relationships. Moreover, even if we would be able to specify all
these relationships in a system of equations, and even if we would
be able to find unique solutions for these equations (both of which is unlikely), the
model would be extremely complex, very unstable, and probably useless for
practical purposes.
In this situation we can see only two possibilities: |
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We can either try to
develop sector-specific models - such as a demographic model of
the rural population, an economic model of relevant sectors in the rural
economy (like a rural Input-Output model), or a political model of decision processes in rural
communities. These models would be no different than any other of the
sector-specific models available today. They would each be developed
from the perspective of a particular discipline - that is, from an
economic, demographic, political, ecological, or bio-geophysical point
of view. |
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The other
possibility is that we try to develop a tool, which would provide
information for a multi-sector analysis and planning of rural
development. This tool would have to include information from several
disciplines; and the information would have to be organized or
connected in such a way, that experts from different
disciplines can use it within their own framework of reference. This
tool would not be a "real-world" model (which represents
economic, social, ecological, or political structures and processes in
the outside world), but a collection of data and rules, which are
typically used in decision processes. In other words: This tool would
not represent functional relationships in the real world, but at the
meta-level of decision making and planning. Like an expert system it
would "simulate" different steps of decision makers and
planners in a typical rural development process. |
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