Animation - Population projections for Austria and Italy

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Updated: April 23, 2002

Data: Demography

Austria: Population Estimates and Projections, 1950-2050 (See also: Table)

Source:

The historical estimates and the data for the base year (1995) were taken from: United Nations (2001): World Population Prospects. The 2000 Revision. New York (UN Population Division);
The projections were calculated by the author, using the DemoTools software package.

Method:

This is a cohort-component projection, using UN base data for 1995 and age-specific fertility, mortality and migration estimates for the projection period (2000-2050) that are identical to the UN medium variant assumptions. (For details see: United Nations, 2001).
Please note that these medium variant scenarios assume a slight fertility increase during the next few decades! For Austria, we assume an increase of the TFR from 1.36 in 1995 to 1.65 in 2050; for Italy we project a TFR increase from 1.20 to 1.61. However, also note that we do not assume a fertility increase to the reproductive level of about 2.1.

Hint:

To synchronize the animations, wait until they are both running. Then click the BACK button of your browser and again the NEXT button. Thus, the animations will be loaded from your browser's cache, which allows them to start simultaneously.

These animations illustrate the aging of the Austrian population due to the rapid decline of fertility since the early 1970s. In 2000 Austria had Total Fertility Rates of 1.36 children per woman. The Net Reproduction Rate was calculated at 0.65. This means, that Austria (due to its large birth deficit) is currently loosing some 35% of its population between subsequent generations. This significant natural population decline, however, is compensated by high net-immigration and a temporarily higher number of births due to age structure effects.
Between 1985 and 2000, the "baby boom generations" from the early to the mid 1960s had their children. But in coming years the much smaller "baby bust generations" after the late 1970s will have their children. If there is not a fundamental change in reproductive behavior, this will inevitably lead to a lower number of birth - simply because the number of possible parents will shrink. Thus we have to expect an increasing birth deficit in coming years.

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