Animation - Population projections for Germany and France

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Updated: April 23, 2002

Data: Demography

Germany: Population Estimates and Projections, 1950-2050 (See also: Table)

Source:

The historical estimates and the data for the base year (1995) were taken from: United Nations (2001): World Population Prospects. The 2000 Revision. New York (UN Population Division);
The projections were calculated by the author, using the DemoTools software package.

Method:

This is a cohort-component projection, using UN base data for 1995 and age-specific fertility, mortality and migration estimates for the projection period (2000-2050) that are identical to the UN medium variant assumptions. (For details see: United Nations, 2001).
Please note that these medium variant scenarios assume a slight fertility increase during the next few decades! For Germany, we assume an increase of the TFR from 1.32 in 1995 to 1.61 in 2050; for France we project a TFR increase from 1.73 to 1.90. However, also note that we do not assume a fertility increase to the reproductive level of about 2.1.

Hint:

To synchronize the two animations, wait until they are both running. Then click the BACK button of your browser and again the NEXT button. Thus, the animations will be loaded from your browser's cache, which allows them to start simultaneously.

According to the most recent estimate by the Council of Europe, Germany had a Net Reproduction Rate of 0.66 in 1999. In other words, due to its reproductive behavior the population of Germany is shrinking by 34% between generations.
Please note that this natural population decline is currently not obvious, because it is compensated by high net-immigration and a temporarily higher number of births due to age structure effects. There is still a relatively large number of parents from the "baby boom" generation, who temporarily produce a somewhat larger number of births - despite the fact that each of them on average has only 1.36 children, which is far below the reproductive level of about 2.1 children per woman

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