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| I n t e r n a t i o n a l | E n e r g y | A g e n c y |
| E n e r g y | M o d e l i n g F o r u m | |
| I n t e r n a t i o n a l | E n e r g y | W o r k s h o p |
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Program
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Opening,
16 June, 10:00 – 10:15 |
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| Opening Address | Thorvald Moe, OECD |
| Welcome | John Weyant, Stanford University |
| Welcome | Alan Manne, Stanford University |
| Welcome | Leo Schrattenholzer, IIASA |
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Plenary Session, 16 June, 10:15 – 13:00 |
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| World Energy Outlook: Key Energy Trends | Fatih Birol, IEA |
| Modeling and Climate Policy Development: Progress and Prospects | John Weyant, Stanford University |
| Global Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios | Nebojsa Nakicenovic, ECS-IIASA |
| European Energy Outlook | Kevin Leydon, European Commission, DG-XVII |
| International Energy Prospects | Linda Doman, US Department of Energy |
| APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook: Its Approach and Highlights | Yonghun Jung, APEC |
| Global Energy Scenarios and Flexible Mechanisms | Holger Rogner, International Atomic Energy Agency |
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Parallel
Session 1.1, 16 June, 14:15 – 17:45 Global Energy-Economics-Environmental Scenarios, Leo Schrattenholzer (Chair) |
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| A Diagnostic Approach to Climate Policy Analysis: An application of ICAM-3 | Hadi Dowlatabadi, Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Pittsburgh |
| Efficiency and Equity of Emissions Trading with Endogenous Environmental Technical Change | Paolo Buonanno, Carlo Carraro, Efrem Castelnuovo and Marzio Galeotti, FEEM, University of Venice, and University of Bergamo |
| The SRES B1 Scenario: Worldscan-IMAGE Based Computer-aided Story-telling | Bert de Vries, RIVM |
| Economy-Energy-Environment: The 3E COMPASS Model | Kimio Uno and Bernd Meyer, Keio University and University of Osnabrück |
| Burden-sharing Rules in Post-Kyoto Strategies: a General-Equilibrium Analysis | Jean-Marc Burniaux, OECD Economic Department |
| On Energy and Environment Technology Transfer | M. A. Muntasser, International Energy Foundation, Tripoli |
| A Study on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Developing Countries | Marzio Galeotti, University of Bergamo and Fondazione Eni Enrico Matteii and Alessandro Lanza, IEA |
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Session 1.2, 16 June, 14:15 – 17:45 Energy Analyses by Fuel and by Sector, Fatih Birol (Chair) |
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| The Blind Side of Carbon Modeling: Transportation | Celine Marie, International Energy Agency |
| International Externalities and Discrete Plant Location Decisions | Jesper Jensen, Ministry of Business and Industry, Denmark |
| Impact of European Gas Market Liberalisation in a Cournot Oligopoly | Maroeska Boots, Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN) |
| A Review of Engine-based Cogeneration Investments in the UK 1991-97 | Hadi Dowlatabadi and Neil Strachan, Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Pittsburgh |
| The Relevance of Assymmetries and Irreversibilities on Modeling Residential Energy Demand – Evidence from 12 OECD Countries | Reinhard Haas and Josef Zöchling, Technical University of Vienna, and Lee Schipper, International Energy Agency |
| Inter-fuel Substitution, Energy Demand and Embodied Technical Change | Kurt Kratena, Austrian Institute of Economic Research |
| Parallel
Session 1.3, 16 June, 14:15 – 17:45 International Carbon Agreements, Trade and Leakage, Alan Manne (Chair) |
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| International Carbon Agreements, Trade and Leakage | Alan Manne, Stanford University |
| Permit Trading under the Kyoto Protocol and Beyond | Warwick J. McKibbin and Peter J. Wilcoxen, Australian National University |
| Limits on Emission Trading and International Trade Flows | David Montgomery, Paul Bernstein, Thomas Rutherford |
| Economic Implications of the Kyoto Protocol – Perspectives of Newest Climate Change Policy Options | Claudia Kemfert, Stuttgart University |
| Instruments of Climate Policy and the Competitiveness of Energy-intensive Industries in Europe | Claude Culem, Hautes Etudes Commerciales, Liège |
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Plenary Session, 17 June, 9:30 – 13:00 Flexible Instruments I, Hadi Dowlatabadi (Chair) |
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| Banking of Carbon Rights: A Two-region Analysis | Gunter Stephan, University of Bern |
| Robust Strategies for Responding to Climate Change | Robert Lempert, Rand Corporation |
| Incentives for Regions to Participate in CO2 Emissions Control Agreement | Stephen Peck and Thomas Teisberg, EPRI |
| An Economic Approach to Global Public Goods | William D. Nordhaus, Yale University |
| The Kyoto Protocol: Implications of International Capital Mobility for Trade and Greenhouse Gas Leakage | Katrin Springer, Kiel Institute of World Economics |
| Permit Prices Stability and the Entry of Non-Annex 1 Countries into the Market – A Comparative Study of Entitlement Rules | Franck Lecocq, Thierry Le Pesant, and Jean-Charles Hourcade, CIRED |
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Parallel Session 2.1, 17 June, 14:15 – 17:45 Flexible Instruments II, Jonathan Pershing (Chair) |
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| Flexible Instruments and The Kyoto Protocol – Results of MERGE and the Global Markal-Macro Trade Model | Socrates Kypreos and Olivier Bahn, Paul Scherrer Institute |
| The Pure Economics of Tradable Pollution Permits | Alain Bernard, Ministry of Transport and Housing, France | Consequences of Ceilings on the Use of Kyoto Mechanisms | Remko Ybema, ECN Policy Studies |
| Choice of Instrument and Cost of Response – the Dynamically Efficient Policy Mix | Peter Read, Massey University |
| Extending the Carbon Coalition – The Case of Long-term Stabilization of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere | Johannes Bollen, RIVM |
| Efficient Allocation of a Global Environment Cost between Countries: Tradable Permits VERSUS Taxes or Tradable Permits AND Taxes? – An Appraisal with a World General Equilibrium Model | Marc Vielle and Alain Bernard, Ministry of Transport and Housing, France |
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Session 2.2, 17 June, 14:15 – 17:45 National and International Energy Markets I, Pantelis Capros (Chair) |
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| Which Road from Kyoto? – Decomposition of Emission Scenarios for IEA Countries | Fridtjof Unander, International Energy Agency |
| Eurasian Energy Infrastructures: Towards New Energy Silk Routes | Ger Klaassen, ECS-IIASA |
| An Energy Infrastructure Model for Asia/Eurasia | Yasumasa Fujii and Kenji Yamaji, University of Tokyo |
| A Low CO2 Emission Scenario for Sweden | Christian Azar, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg |
| Energy in the Mediterranean Region, Results of the POLES Model | Peter Russ, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville |
| The National Energy Situation in India | S .K. Chopra, MNES, New Delhi |
| Emissions Reduction Policies and Induced Technological Change: A Macroeconomic Analysis of the Austrian Kyoto Policy Package | Stefan P. Schleicher and Kurt Kratena, University of Graz and Austrian Institute for Economic Research, Vienna |
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Session 2.3, 17 June, 14:15 – 17:45 Methodology, Carlo Carraro (Chair) |
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| One Man's Carbon is Another Man's Bread: Understanding Differences in the Structure of Carbon Emissions | Lee Schipper, Fridtjof Unander, and Celine Marie, International Energy Agency |
| Endogenous Technological Learning in IIASA Energy Models | Leo Schrattenholzer, ECS-IIASA |
| Discounting and Sustainability in Applied Integrated-Assessment Models | Reyer Gerlagh, Free University Amsterdam |
| A Dynamic Game Approach to Climate Change Negotiations | Antonio Soria and Juan Carlos Ciscar, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville |
| Estimation of CO2 Emission Factors of Coals | Sibel Özdogan, Marmara University, Istanbul |
| The Energy Problem Metamorphosis or The Difficult Transformation to Sustainable Development | Vadim Nikolajew, Strategic Studies of Transformation Processes, Berlin |
| A New Total Approach to Energy Statistics and Forecasting | Gustav R. Grob, World Sustainable Energy Coalition, Geneva |
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Plenary Session, 18 June, 9:30 – 13:00 National and International Energy Markets II, Rezki Lounnas (Chair) |
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| Regional Equilibrium Approach to the Analysis of GHG Control, with Application to North America | Richard Loulou and Amit Kanudia, University of Montreal |
| Energy Outlook 2000-2030 for the EU and Adjustments Needed to Meet Kyoto Commitments | Pantelis Capros, L. Mantzos, and Lakis Vouyoukas, National Technical University, Athens |
| The International Market for Natural Gas in South Asia | Toufiq Siddiqi, Global Environment and Energy in the 21st Century (GEE-21) |
| Recent Results of the AIM Model | Mikiko Kainuma, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) |
| The Role of a Carbon Tax and International Cooperation in Meeting the Kyoto Target: an Evaluation for Italy | Giancarlo Tosato, Mario Contaldi, Richard Loulou and Amit Kanudia ENEA and University of Montreal |
| Climate Change Policy Beyond Kyoto in a World of Resource Uncertainty and Technological Change: Implications for Europe, Africa, and the Middle East | Adam Rose, Brandt Stevens, and Shu-Yi Liao, The Pennsylvania State University and California Energy Commission |
| Policy Implications of Climate Modeling | Fatih Birol and Jonathan Pershing, IEA |
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Parallel Session 3.1, 18 June, 14:15 – 17:45 EMF Planning Session, John Weyant (Chair) |
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Parallel Session 3.2, 18 June, 14:15 – 17:45 ICLIPS Session, Ferenc Toth (Chair) |
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| Climate Change Policy Analysis: The Tolerable Windows Approach | Ferenc Toth, Potsdam Institute for Climate Research (PIK) |
| The ICLIPS Integrated Climate-Economy Model | Marian Leimbach, Potsdam Institute for Climate Research (PIK) |
| Carbon Emissions from Land-Use Change in ICLIPS | Ronald D. Sands, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory |
| The Distributional and Structural Effects of a German Proposal for International Climate Policy | Katrin Springer and Gernot Klepper, Kiel Institute of World Economics |
| Carbon Mitigation Costs, Derived from an Analysis of the IIASA-WEC and Other Scenarios | Andrei Gritsevskii, ECS-IIASA |
| A Regionalized Nonlinear Impulse-response Climate Model for CO2 Forcing | Georg Hooss, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology |
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The organizers wish to thank EPRI, Palo Alto, California
for their financial support of the meeting. |
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