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Energy Modeling Forum
Stanford University, USA
IIASA
Laxenburg, Austria
Program

Tuesday Morning - 20 June 2000 - Wattis Room
9:00-12:30

Plenary Session 1:
Alan S. Manne, Leo Schrattenholzer (Co-Chairs)

8:15-9:00
 Registration/Continental Breakfast  
9:00-9:30
 Opening and Welcome Address John Weyant, Alan Manne, Teresa Malyshev, and Leo Schrattenholzer
9:30-10:30
 The Future Prospects of Methane from the Perspective of Modern Petroleum Science J. F. Kenney
Gas Resources Corporation and the Russian Academy of Sciences
10:30-11:00
 Coffee Break  
11:00-11:30
 An effective allocation criterion for CO2 emissions Sujata Gupta
Tata Energy Research Institute, India
11:30-12:00
 Assessment of the IEA's World Energy Outlook Demand Projections Fatih Birol and Teresa Malyshev
International Energy Agency, France
12:00-12:30
 MITI's Policy as a System to Substitute Technology for Energy - Lessons, Limit and Perspectives Chihiro Watanabe
Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan
12:30-14:00
 Lunch  

Tuesday Afternoon - 20 June 2000 - Room 1
14:00-17:30

Parallel Session 1: Flexible Instruments I
Richard Loulou, Alan McDonald (Co-Chairs)

14:00-14:30
 Comparing the Cost of Emission Reductions in First and Second-Best Economies
(paper available) 		Lars Mathiesen
 Norwegian School of Economics, Norway and Univ. of California, USA
Lars Håkonsen
Telemarksforsking, Norway
14:30-15:00
 Carbon Emission Leakages: An Analytical General Equilibrium View Jean-Marc Burniaux and Joaquim Oliveira Martins
OECD, France
15:00-15:30
 Emissions Trading and its Impacts on World Economies: Contemplation of Baseline Emissions Paths and a Ceiling on Emissions Trading Claudia Kemfert
University of Stuttgart, Germany
15:30-16:00
 Coffee Break  
16:00-16:30
 An Analysis of the EU "Ceilings Proposal" Claus Kastberg Nielsen
Copenhagen Economics, Denmark
Jesper Jensen
MobiDK, Denmark
Thomas Rutherford
University of Colorado, USA
16:30-17:00
 Risk Management of Investments in Joint Implementation and Clean Development Mechanism Projects through Insurance and Diversification Josef Janssen
University of St. Gallen, Switzerland
17:30-19:30
 Reception - Stanford Faculty Club  

Tuesday Afternoon - 20 June 2000 - Room 2
14:00-17:30

Parallel Session 2: Methodology I
Tom Kram, Robert Lempert (Co-Chairs)

14:00-14:30
 Endogenous Technological Change in Climate Change Modelling: DEMETER Bob van der Zwaan and Reyer Gerlagh
Free University Amsterdam, the Netherlands
14:30-15:00
 The Effects of Environmental Policy and Learning on the Diffusion of Energy-Saving Technologies in a Vintage Framework Peter Mulder
Free University Amsterdam, the Netherlands
15:00-15:30
 Energy Policy, Technological Innovation and Uncertainties in Global Climate Change: A Cost-Benefit Assessment Using Monte Carlo Analysis
(paper available)
 Dennis Anderson and Demetrios Papathanasiou
Imperial College, United Kingdom
15:30-16:00
 Coffee Break  
16:00-16:30
 E3 Scenarios with Embodied and Induced Technological Change: Benefits and Costs of CO2 Strategies for Austria Kurt Kratena
Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Austria
Stefan P. Schleicher
University of Graz, Austria
16:30-17:00
 Modelling the Transport Sector Fuel Demand, Reconciling Bottom-Up and Top-Down Approaches Michael Landwehr and Céline Marie-Lilliu
Energy Efficiency and Technology Office, France
Fatih Birol, Laura Cozzi, and Maria R. Virdis
International Energy Agency, France
17:00-17:30
 New Total Approach to Energy Statistics and Forecasting Gustav R. Grob
International Clean Energy Consortium, Switzerland
17:30-19:30
 Reception - Stanford Faculty Club  

Tuesday Afternoon - 20 June 2000 - Wattis Room
14:00-17:30

Parallel Session 3: Comparison of Energy-Economics-Environment
Scenarios and their Key Assumptions
J. F. Kenney, Sujata Gupta (Co-Chairs)

14:00-14:30
 Multi-regional Asian Energy/Environment/Resource: Distribution Model for the Evaluation of Technology Strategies
(paper available) 		Shunsuke Mori
Science University of Tokyo, Japan
14:30-15:00
 Energy Technology Futures: Scenarios for Canada's Energy System in 2050 Kevin Cliffe
Energy Technology Futures, Canada
15:00-15:30
 One Man's Carbon is Another Man's Bread: Further Understanding Differences in the Structure of Carbon Emissions
(paper available) 		Lee Schipper and Fridtjof Unander
International Energy Agency, France
Scott Murtishaw
Lawrence Berkeley International Laboratory, USA
15:30-16:00
 Coffee Break  
16:00-16:30
 German Energy Economy under Transition: Nuclear Energy in Competition with Renewable Energy? J.-Fr. Hake, P. Markewitz, and A. Kraft
Forschungszentrum Jülich, Germany
16:30-17:00
 The Benefits and Costs of Waiting: Early Action Versus Delayed Response in the Post-SRES Stabilization Scenarios Johannes Bollen
RIVM, the Netherlands
Ton Manders and Hans Timmer
CPB, the Netherlands
17:30-19:30
 Reception - Stanford Faculty Club  

Wednesday Morning - 21 June 2000 - Wattis Room
9:00-12:30

Plenary Session 2: EMF - 18 and 19
John Weyant (Chair)

8:15-9:00
 Continental Breakfast  
  The Status of Energy Modeling Forum Studies 18 and 19 - International Trade , Technology and Climate Change Policies John Weyant
Stanford University, USA
  Preliminary Results of Sensitivity Analysis on Leakage with GEMINI-E3/GemWTraP
(paper available)
 Alain L. Bernard
Ministry of Transportation and Housing, France
Marc Vielle
Atomic Energy Agency, France
  Structuring CDM to Induce All Regions to Participate in Kyoto Paul M. Bernstein and
W. David Montgomery
Charles River Associates, USA
Thomas F. Rutherford
University of Colorado, USA
  A Multi-Gas Approach to Climate Policy Analysis Alan S. Manne
Stanford University, USA
Richard Richels
EPRI, USA
  Analysis of the Kyoto Mechanism Using a Global Energy System Model DNE21 Kenichiro Nishio, Yasumasa Fujii and Kenji Yamaji
University of Tokyo, Japan
12:30-14:00
 Lunch  

Wednesday Afternoon - 21 June 2000 - Room 1
14:00-17:30

Parallel Session 4: Flexible Instruments II
 Claudia Kemfert, Lars Mathiesen (Co-Chairs)

14:00-14:30
 Towards a Less Carbon Intensive Economy in China: Accomplishments, Challenges and the Role of Clean Development Mechanism Zhong-Xiang Zhang
China
14:30-15:00
 Meeting UNFCCC Targets via Materials Policies Dolf J. Gielen and Tom Kram
ECN, the Netherlands
15:00-15:30
 Flexible Instruments: A Quantitative Assessment of their Potential Role and Impact in Meeting GHG Reduction Commitments Jos Sijm
ECN, the Netherlands
15:30-16:00
 Coffee Break  
16:00-16:30
 Empirical Evidence on the Energy Intensity in Manufacturing Sectors and its Sensitivity to Certain Economic Variables Asami Miketa
Keio University, Japan
16:30-17:00
 Decomposing Carbon Leakage: An Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol Johannes Bollen
RIVM, the Netherlands
Ton Manders and Hans Timmer
CPB, the Netherlands

Wednesday Afternoon - 21 June 2000 - Room 2
14:00-17:30

Parallel Session 5: Methodology II
Hillard Huntington, Jürgen F. Hake (Co-Chairs)

14:00-14:30
 Analytic Methods for Generating Narrative Scenarios Robert Lempert
RAND Corporation, USA
14:30-15:00
 Uncertainty Analysis of Energy Models Charles D. Linville
American University, USA
Bentley G. Coffey
Duke University, USA
15:00-15:30
 A Cost-Efficient Projection of Complex Climate Models for CO2 Forcing Georg Hooss
MPI Meteo, Germany
15:30-16:00
 Coffee Break  
16:00-16:30
 Developing an Energy Balance Simulation Model: Price Induced Energy Intensity and Inter-Energy Substitution of G7 Countries Kimio Uno and Yumiko Umehara
Keio University, Japan
Bernd Meyer
University of Osnabrück, Germany
Dirk van Wynsberghe
Economic Research Institute, Belgium
16:30-17:00
 Deriving Economic Indicators from a Multi-Sector, Multi-Region Bottom-Up MARKAL Model Richard Loulou and Amit Kanudia
McGill University and GERAD, Canada
17:00-17:30
 International Comparison of Energy Use: the Usefulness of Structural Decomposition Analysis Across Countries Michiel de Nooij and Daan P. van Soest
Tilburg University, the Netherlands
René van der Kruk
Free University Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Alex R. Hoen
CPB, the Netherlands

Wednesday Afternoon - 21 June 2000 - Wattis Room
14:00-17:30

Parallel Session 6: Energy Technology Assessment
Clas-Otto Wene, Gunter Stephan (Co-Chairs)

14:00-14:30
 Analysis of the Kyoto Mechanisms by the AIM Model
(paper available) 		Mikiko Kainuma, Yuzuru Matsuoka, and Tsuneyuki Morita
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
14:30-15:00
 CO2 Abatement Policy with Learning-by-Doing in Renewable Energy
(paper available) 		Tobias N. Rasmussen
University of Aarhus, Denmark
15:00-15:30
 Achieving Deep Reductions of CO2 Emissions from Transport: Assessing the Role of Carbon Management David W. Keith, Alex Farrell and James J. Corbett
Carnegie Mellon University, USA
15:30-16:00
 Coffee Break  
16:00-16:30
 Subsidising the Adoption of Energy-Saving Technologies When Technological Change is Uncertain Henri L.F. de Groot and Peter Mulder
Free University Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Daan P. van Soest
Tilburg University, the Netherlands
16:30-17:00
 The Emerging Distributed Generation Market Rajat K. Sen and Natalia Kulichenko
SENTECH, Inc., USA
 

Thursday Morning - 22 June 2000 - Room 1
9:00-12:30

Parallel Session 7: Discounting and Intergenerational Equity / Technological Learning
Alan S. Manne, Chihiro Watanabe (Co-Chairs)

8:15-9:00
 Continental Breakfast  
09:00-9:30
 Discounting the Future Climate: Myths and Facts Gunter Stephan
University of Bern, Switzerland
9:30-10:00
 Recursive Intergenerational Utility in Global Climate Risk Modeling Minh Ha-Duong
CIRED-CNRS, France
Nicolas Treich
CIRANO, Canada and LEERNA-INRA, France
10:00-10:30
 Overlapping Generations and Climate Change in a Regionally Disaggregated Framework James Deaker
Stanford University, USA
10:30-11:00
 Coffee Break  
11:00-11:30
 Stimulating Learning Investments for Renewable Energy Technology
(paper available) 		Clas-Otto Wene
International Energy Agency, France and Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden
11:30-12:00
 The German Renewable Energy Act and Learning Curve Findings Michael Durstewitz
Institut für Solare Energieversorgungstechnik (ISET), Germany
12:00-12:30
 Procurement and R&D Support: Two Policies Aiming at Enhancing Technical Progress Leo Schrattenholzer
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria

Thursday Morning - 22 June 2000 - Wattis Room
9:00-12:30

Parallel Session 8: Primary Energy Resources and Potentials of Renewables
Richard Richels, Scott Rogers (Co-Chairs)

8:15-9:00
 Continental Breakfast  
09:00-9:30
 Energy Infrastructure Model for Asia/Eurasia with CO2 Emissions Abatement Options Yasumasa Fujii, Yutaka Horikawa and Kenji Yamaji
University of Tokyo, Japan
9:30-10:00
 Technological Learning and Construction Costs of Gas Pipelines Jimin Zhao
Stanford University, USA
10:00-10:30
 The Future of Gas Infrastructures in Eurasia Ger Klaassen and Alan McDonald
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
10:30-11:00
 Coffee Break  
11:00-11:30
 A Semi-Empirical Long-Term Scenario Analysis: Global Warming and Nuclear Perspectives Ryosuke Koike
Tokyo Electric Power Company, Japan
Toshio Sanda and Tsunetaka Wajima
Hitachi, Ltd., Japan
11:30-12:00
 A Multi Region Development of the FLAMES Model to Simulate Trade in Biofuel and Conventional Timber Products Resulting from Policy Driven Land Use Change Aroon Parshotam and Nicolas Robidoux
Landcare Research, Ltd., New Zealand
Peter Read
Massey University, New Zealand
12:00-12:30
 Expectations Towards Reality: How Renewable Sources Can Help Europe to Meet its Kyoto Target Enzo Di Giulio
Scuola Mattei, Italy
Francesca Gostinelli
AEA Perugia, Italy

Thursday Morning - 22 June 2000 - Wattis Room
12:30-13:00

Closing Session
John Weyant, Leo Schrattenholzer (Co-Chairs)

12:30-13:00
 Closing Session  
13:00
 Adjournment and Lunch  
 

The organizers wish to thank EPRI, Palo Alto, California for their financial support of the meeting.

 

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