Annual Meeting of the
International Energy Workshop 2005
jointly organized by RITE, CRIEPI, EPRI, IEEJ, JSER, NEDO, EMF, IEA(ETSAP), and IIASA
5-7 July 2005 at the Pa-lu-lu Plaza Kyoto, Kyoto, Japan
 
 
ABSTRACTS sorted alphabetically per speaker below
Last modified: 01 Jul 2005

Analyses of World Supply of Natural Gas with DNE21+ Model

Keigo Akimoto, Fuminori Sano, Takashi Homma and Toshimasa Tomoda

Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Kizugawa-dai, Kyoto, Japan

One of global warming mitigation options is the shift to natural gas from coal or oil. This gas shift will, however, require a significant development of international gas infrastructure and adjustments in the international gas flows.

In order to evaluate the role of natural gas in the world energy systems up to the middle of this century, perspectives of natural gas are analyzed using the DNE21+ model[1]. The model is a world energy systems model of intertemporal optimization type, where the world energy systems cost between 2000 and 2050 is minimized. It has 77 world divided regions and the interregional transportation for natural gas, oil, coal, etc. are taken into account. The fossil and non-fossil fuel resources are assumed based on GIS data, such as, USGS[2,3], and therefore, the regional distributions are well represented. The transportation infrastructures, such as pipelines and tankers, for natural gas and other energy carriers are explicitly modeled, and the cost-effective construction of the transportation infrastructures among the divided world regions can be also evaluated.

The optimal natural gas supplies of the regions for Reference Case and a CO2 emission reduction case for 550 ppmv stabilization, are evaluated. According to the model analysis, global natural gas productions expand in both of the cases. In the 550 ppmv stabilization case, the cumulative production of natural gas in the United States, Russia and Iran between 2000 and 2020, for example, is about 18, 14 and 4% of the world total production, respectively; the cumulative production between 2000 and 2050 is about 8, 25 and 10% of the total, respectively.

[1] Akimoto, K. et al. Role of CO2 Sequestration by Country for Global Warming mitigation after 2013, Proceeding of the 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies. Vol.1: Peer-reviewed Papers and Plenary Presentations, 2005.
[2] USGS. U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000 – Description and Results. 2000. http://greenwood.cr.usgs.gov/energy/WorldEnergy/DDS-60/
[3] USGS. 1995 National Assessment of United States Oil and Gas Resources. 1995.

Corresponding author: Keigo Akimoto

Uncertainty in the Saving – Quantifying the “Rebound Effect”

Mark HOWELLS^a, John “Skip” LAITNER^b, Tom ALFSTAD^a
aEnergy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, SOUTH AFRICA
^bOffice of Atmospheric Pollution, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA

GHG-mitigation measures may reduce emissions directly. However, due to knock on effects through the economy, total emissions reductions (direct and indirect) may be different to the direct reductions, introducing uncertainty. We compute the relationship between direct emissions savings and indirect emissions and compare the difference – or the “rebound effect”. To do so, we employ a case study and use a straightforward input-output model to track the effect of energy-efficiency measures through the economy of South Africa. We conclude that though the positive “rebound” effects can be significant, the contribution ranges from being limited to encouraging more climate friendly economic development.

Corresponding author: Tom Alfstad

Session: Managing Uncertainty and Climate Change

Philippe AMBROSI^a, Vincent GITZ^b, Jean-Charles HOURCADE^b, Philippe CIAIS^a, Bertrand MAGNÉ^c
aLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette, FRANCE
^bCentre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Nogent-sur-Marne, FRANCE
^cLaboratoire d'Economie des Ressources Naturelles (LERNA/INRA), Toulouse, FRANCE

We address the problem of safeguarding climate change, given a cascade of uncertainties progressively resolved. Within a sequential decision framework, we use an optimal control model (RESPONSE) to compute the value of information regarding uncertainties on baseline scenarios, mitigation costs and technological change, carbon-cycle dynamics, climate sensitivity and "safe" climate targets. This allows us to rank different uncertainties and examine how their importance varies with the date of learning (i.e. which uncertainty is more "urgent" to resolve). Finally, we assess to what extent short term optimal paths of fossil emissions abatement and carbon sequestration are robust to these uncertainties.

Keywords: Carbon sequestration, climate sensitivity, climate stabilisation, mitigation, technological change

Corresponding author: Philippe Ambrosi

Session: Long-term Energy-Economic-Climate Projections

Tomohiko ARAKI ^a,b, Ilkka KEPPO^b
aTokyo Electric Power Company, Tokyo, JAPAN
^bEnvironmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, AUSTRIA

This study examines the role of innovative technologies on mid- and long- term perspectives of the global energy system. In doing so, we use a scenario approach with and without CO2 constraints in order to assess the effectiveness of chosen technologies in the energy system. In this study, we focus on combined cycle technologies, fuel cell technologies, CO2 sequestration technologies and hydrogen production technologies, and attempt to determine which of these technologies could contribute most to the mitigation of CO2 emissions. In addition, we analyze the economic perspectives of these new and currently rather expensive technologies using technological learning.

Keywords: combined cycle technologies, fuel cell technologies, CO2 sequestration technologies, hydrogen production technologies, technological learning

Corresponding author: Tomohiko Araki

Strategy for Reducing CO2 Emissions in the Residential Sector in Japan: Case Study on Energy Saving Measures in the Residential Sector in Iwate Prefecture

Shuichi ASHINA, Toshihiko NAKATA
Management of Science and Technology (MOST), Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University, Sendai, JAPAN

This research shows feasible strategies for reducing CO2 emissions in the residential sector in Japan. In this study, we have set two types of energy-saving measures as to be the strategies for reducing CO2 emissions in the residential sector in Iwate prefecture. The measures are: (1) demand control, and (2) installation of high efficiency appliances. In order to evaluate the feasibility of the strategies, we examine the cost-effectiveness of the measures. The result shows that both demand control and installation of high efficiency appliances lead to reduce CO2 emission in the residential sector with cost-effectiveness.

Keywords: Energy-saving, Demand control, Economic impacts, Household expenditure

Corresponding author: Shuichi Ashina

Energy Policy, Uncertainty and Collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC)

Most climate models indicate the possibility of a complete THC collapse in response to global warming. Climate sensitivity is one of the key parameter influencing such response. The purpose of this presentation is to examine the impact of uncertainty (in particular over climate sensitivity) on the choice of energy policies. We first follow a stochastic programming approach to design, with the MERGE model of Manne and Richels, hedging policies that satisfy THC preservation constraints. We then use a probabilistic optimisation approach to analyse the costs of uncertainty over threshold levels within an adapted version of the DICE model of Nordhaus and Boyer which captures the dynamics of a THC collapse.

Keywords: Abrupt climate change, DICE model, Dynamic programming, Energy policy, MERGE model, Stochastic programming, Thermohaline circulation

Corresponding author: Olivier Bahn

Session: Managing Uncertainty and Climate Change

Martin Baumann^a, Christian Eherer^a, Thomas Hamacher^b
aInstitute for Theoretical and Computational Physics (ITP), Graz, University of Technology, Graz, Austria
^bMax-Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (IPP), Garching bei Munich, GERMANY

Within the Socio-Economic Research on Fusion (SERF) Programme, the potential role of fusion power is being studied. Using the TIMES model generator a global single-regional energy system model including Endogenous Technological Learning has been developed by the ITP of the TU-Graz in co-operation with the IPP Garching. Using this model, the impact of endogenous treated technological progress on the role of fusion power in various scenarios have been studied and discussed, and results will presented. The work has been carried out within the EFDA framework in close cooperation with the IPP Garching.

Keywords: Nuclear Fusion, EFDA, SERF, MARKAL, TIMES, energy model, Endogenous Technological Learning

Corresponding author: Martin Baumann

Session: Nuclear Energy: Fusion and Fission

Assessing Equity Effects of Climate Change Policy through the American Consumer Expenditure Survey: New Results on Housing and Transportation

Alain L. BERNARD
Ministry of Equipment, Transportation and Housing, Paris, FRANCE

Climate change policies raise crucial equity issues at the world level, between industrialized (and belonging to Annex B) and developing countries, which represents a serious hurdle in defining a cooperative framework for a concerted mitigation policy. But not less serious –and much less addressed- is the domestic equity issue. There are obvious reasons to expect that the cost –before any compensation mechanism or an associated redistributive policy- will vary significantly according to categories of households, in particular to income classes. Indeed, it is well known that the share of energy consumption –either for residential use or in private transportation- is decreasing with income, so that low income groups would bear a relatively higher burden.

A preliminary analysis has be conducted on the basis of the American consumer expenditure survey (CEX) for which a span of 20 years –from 1984 to 2003- is now available, and a database pairing this survey with the Consumer Price Index, and was presented at the NCCR CLIMATE 2005 Seminar held in Interlaken. Welfare costs can then be compared according to income classes, the size of the family, the generation (age of the representative agent) and the region of residence.

New and more detailed results are presented here, namely concerning Private Transportation, by taking into account all categories of outlays, and Housing with alternative specifications of the demand function (with or without additive separability). Differences with previous estimations are analyzed and commented.

Keywords: climate change, welfare cost, equity, demand function, Engel curve, Slutsky matrix, separability, additive separability
New concept: Technical Progress in consumption
JEL classification: C8, C31, D1, D58, D6

Corresponding author: Alain Bernard

Virtual Power Plants across Energy-Autonomous Regions

Markus BIBERACHER^a, Walter RIEDER^a, Josef STROBL^a,b
aAustria Research Studio iSPACE, Salzburg, AUSTRIA
^bUniversity of Salzburg, Zentrum für Geoinformatik Salzburg, Salzburg, AUSTRIA

Across Europe, national as well as enterprise strategies for energy supply are currently being re-adjusted to meet a set of objectives: emphasizing renewable sources of energy, minimizing dependence on imports, meeting emission reduction targets and limiting long-distance transmission. Distributed generation, an 'intelligent' mix of energy sources and sophisticated control strategies are required to move towards autonomous regions with minimal dependence from outside energy supplies and long-range transmission.

The concept of a 'virtual power plant' covering a region's energy needs starts from a fully distributed GIS-based demand and load forecasting model. Due to disparities and high temporal variability of energy demand, the flexible energy provision is a challenging task. Most renewable sources like wind or solar provide highly variable outputs and are difficult to forecast. Biomass and hydropower as well as (a minimum of) fossile thermal are the only currently available technologies to balance variable generation and to meet current demand.

GIS-based models are an indispensable method for surveying and developing the renewable energy potential of regions, and subsequently the foundation for short term generation forecasts. Combined with demand forecasts, grid control strategies can only be implemented with balancing capabilities from e.g. hydropower with pumping capability into reservoirs. The traditional inter-regional balancing relies heavily on centralized generation and requires high transmission capacities, which are expensive and increasingly difficult to build, e.g. as high voltage corridors face strong public opposition.

The concept of autonomous energy regions with a maximum of renewable sources is aiming at meeting objectives of sustainability, climate protection and security as well as stability. While this sounds like an uncontested strategy, implementation requires highly sophisticated spatialized modeling as well as revised approaches to risk management and quality of service. Temporally dynamic maps of demand, generation potential and balancing needs are the foundation of intra-regional planning, forecast and control strategies leading towards new paradigms in sustainable and largely autonomous regions.

Keywords: virtual power plant; sustainability; autarky; renewables; GIS (Geo Information System)

Corresponding author: Markus Biberacher

Session: Technological Responses to Climate Change

In a post-Kyoto era, regional and global cooperation will be key factors in achieving sustainable economic growth coupled with a substantive reduction in GHG emissions. To assess the potential benefits of cooperation, decision-makers need appropriate modeling frameworks that fully depict each player within a multi-regional context. Recently the ETSAP models (MARKAL and TIMES) and their support systems (ANSWER and VEDA) have rapidly evolved to meet this challenge, as evidenced by a number of major undertakings (e.g., IEA-ETP, EIA-SAGE, ASEAN/EPSAP, EFDA, NEEDS, SEE-REMS, NESCAUM/NE) employing them.

This presentation will focus on facilities that make management of these large-scale multi-region models possible. Both systems will be available for hands-on trial by those interested.

Current Major MARKAL/TIMES Multi-region Modeling Initiatives
• International Energy Agency’s Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) [15-region global];

• Energy Information Administration’s System for Analysis of Global Energy (SAGE) markets [15-region global];

• European Fusion Development Agreement (EFDA) [15-region global];

• Australian Agency for International Development sponsored Energy Policy and Systems Analysis Project (EPSAP) [8-country ASEAN]

• US Environmental Protection Agency sponsored New England MARKAL [6 States, expanding to 12];

• European Union sponsored New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability (NEEDS) [27-country]; and

• US Agency for International Development sponsored Southeast Europe Regional Energy Market Study (SEE-REMS) initiatives [8-country].

Keywords: multi-region modeling, global modeling, data management, capability building, post-Kyoto evaluation

Corresponding author: Gary Goldstein

Even after its coming into force, the shortcomings of the Kyoto protocol and of international climate change policy in general are obvious. There is insufficient implementation, the (linked) challenges of re-integrating the USA and involving industrializing countries like China in a meaningful manner have not yet been grasped, and concepts for long-term policies for substantially reducing world-wide GHG emissions still have to be established.

Therefore, a discussion about a modified global climate regime with a more “balanced” mitigation strategy and a stronger consideration of adaptation measures is gaining momentum. Core topics of such a regime will be addressed in this contribution.

Keywords: Kyoto, climate policy, mitigation, adaptation, energy

Corresponding author: Jürgen-Friedrich Hake"

Tatsuya HANAOKA^a, Mikiko KAINUMA^a, Toshihiko MASUI^a, Junichi FUJINO^a, Yuzuru MATSUOKA^b, Reina KAWASE^b
aSocial and Environmental Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Ibaraki, JAPAN
^b Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JAPAN

We have been updating the current emissions scenarios database to contribute for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The objective of this study is to review emission and mitigation scenarios and analyze various mitigation scenarios since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR). By developing the current database, it becomes available to assess characteristics of mitigation scenarios and conduct quantitative analyses on GDP, population, carbon intensity, energy intensity, carbon tax etc in multiregional aggregations. In particular, while global level analyses were in general taken into account in TAR, this study focuses on regional level analyses as well as global level analyses.

Keywords: Greenhouse gases, Emission scenarios, Mitigation scenarios, Integrated assessment models, Post-SRES

Corresponding author: Tatsuya HANAOKA

Input-output Analysis on Inter-industrial Waste Recycling System in Japan

Takuya HARA^a, Yoshikuni YOSHIDA^a, Ryuji MATSUHASHI^a, Hirokazu SHIMA^b
aUniversity of Tokyo, Tokyo, JAPAN
^bMatsuhashi Laboratory, Tokyo, JAPAN

In this study we investigate environmental effects of inter-industrial recycling system, such as energy consumption, CO2 emission and waste reduction. We develop extended input-output table, which is physical and monetary hybrid input-output table, and some industry featured in the study are divided into more detailed major processes. We analyze the direct and indirect environmental effect of the system by using the input-output table.

Corresponding author: Takuya Hara

Evaluation of Economics of Hydrogen Energy Applications in Transportation Sector in India

Lakshmikanth HARI
Indira Gandhi Institute of Developmental Research, Mumbai, INDIA

Energy plays a crucial role in the development of a county. The nations, which have sufficient energy sources, are fast developing and becoming rich countries. The countries that do not have sufficient energy sources have to depend on energy rich countries, which impedes development. Transportation sector is a major consumer of energy and plays crucial role in the development of a country. In case of India, the transportation sector depends on energy sources like oil that have to be imported. Hence, it is important to look for other alternatives.

Hydrogen is a renewable energy. It can be produced from water. When hydrogen is consumed, it forms water again. Hydrogen can be used as a fuel for vehicles with some modifications in the existing technology. By using hydrogen the performance of engine is not affected and the pollution is negligible as water vapors are released when hydrogen is consumed.
Fuel cell vehicles use hydrogen as a fuel. These fuel cells convert hydrogen energy in to electrical energy and vehicles run by electric power. The energy conversion efficiency of fuel cell vehicles is high compared to other conventional vehicles. Since the vehicle runs on electrical energy there is no chance of air and sound pollution.

Hydrogen energy is going to be the key factor in solving India’s problems in energy and transportation sector. BY using hydrogen energy, India need not depend on other countries as hydrogen can be produced from water and India has vast costal area.

The present paper discusses various technologies of hydrogen production, storage, transportation and end use applications. We study the costs of hydrogen energy production, storage, transportation and end uses. We also discuss the benefits of using hydrogen energy by comparing with fuels like petrol and diesel.

Keywords: Hydrogen economy, Alternative fuels, Fuel cell economy

Corresponding author: Lakshmikanth Hari

Development of a Dynamic Energy-economic Assessment Model with Multi-regions and Multi-sectors for the Evaluation of the Carbon Emission Reduction Policy

Takashi HOMMA^a, Shunsuke MORI^a,b, Keigo AKIMOTO^a, Toshimasa TOMODA^a
aResearch Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Kyoto, JAPAN
^bDepartment of Industrial Administration, Faculty of Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Science, Chiba, JAPAN

In order to enable analysis on both industrial structures and energy systems changes up to the middle of this century, we developed a global optimization model DEARS (Dynamic Energy-economic Assessment model with multi-Regions and multi-Sectors) by integrating a top-down economic model and a bottom-up energy technologies assessment model. The model consists of 18 non-energy sectors and 12 kinds of energy technologies, dividing the world into 18 regions. The simulation studies under various kinds of the carbon reduction policies are also described. The obtained computational results reveal the global and regional impacts on industrial structure, energy technologies and energy systems.

Keywords: climate change mitigation, global warming, industrial structure change, economic model, energy model

Corresponding author: Takashi Homma

Optimum Type of Biomass for Global Energy Transportation

Takako HONJO^a, Hiroshi SANO^b, Touru SAWAI^c
aNational Institute of Advance Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), JAPAN
^bLab. Office of Global Energy System, JAPAN
^cSchool of Biology-Oriented Science and Technology, Kinki University, JAPAN

Although we have a huge amount of world biomass resource, the biomass resources are often restricted to local usage because the biomass is too bulky to transport efficiently. The pretreatment of the crude biomass for energy-densification sometimes results in a big energy loss. As for many bio-fuels, the authors pointed out a trade-off relationship between (A) energy density and (B) energy recovery ratio. From this point of view, the comparison was carried out among following materials: Green wood /air dried wood /chip/pellet /semi-carbonized wood /char /wood tar /bio-methanol /bio-ethanol.

Keywords: biomass, wood, pellet, semi-carbonized wood, char, energy recovery, densification

Corresponding author: Takako Honjo

Measurement of the Marginal Abatement Costs and the Impacts of Reduction of CO2 Emission on World Fuel Markets

Yuko HOSHINO, Yutaka NAGATA
Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Tokyo, JAPAN

This study quantitatively analyzes the marginal abatement costs of CO2 emission of EU and Japan, and the impacts of reduction of CO2 emission on world primary energy market using our econometric model, WEPM* which endogenously determines the world primary energy prices from the world demand and supply balances. We found that the marginal abatement costs are very different among nations, and if EU4 and Japan cut CO2 Emission simultaneously by using only some domestic measures, international coal and crude oil prices will fall by 8.9% and 7.3% respectively. And 35% of total CO2 reduction in Japan and EU4 will be lost by "carbon leakage".

Keywords: Energy Demand and supply, Marginal Abatement cost, Fuel Price, Carbon leakage
Hoshino,Y., Y.Nagata and N.Sakurai (2003),“Development of World Energy Prices Model”, Proceedings of 26th IAEE International conference in Prague, IAEE

Corresponding author: Yuko Hoshino

Beyond the Baseline – Large Scale Climate Friendly Development

Mark HOWELLS^a, Josh HOUSE^b, John “Skip” LAITNER^c
aEnergy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, SOUTH AFRICA
^bProgram on Energy and Sustainable Development, Stanford University, Stanford, USA
^cOffice of Atmospheric Pollution, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA

Developing countries will progressively emit more greenhouse-gas emissions; consuming more and reducing levels of poverty. Understanding that, “effective climate action must be “mainstreamed” to re-orient development paths toward those that are most climate-friendly” , we investigate changes in the “development-path” of two developing countries. In China, en route to becoming the largest emitter, we consider developing gas infrastructure for electricity generation. In South Africa, an energy-intensive economy, we consider energy-efficiency policies which meet her development goals. We show that though significant quantities of emissions can be saved by changing development-paths, these would not be realized under mitigation-mechanisms such as Kyoto.

Corresponding author: Mark Howells

Research of the Decision Model on Capacity and Operation Condition of Energy Systems of the Commercial Building and Urban District Considering Weather Condition of the City

Takeshi ISHIDA^a, Shunsuke MORI^b
aSystems Research & Development Institute of Japan, Tokyo, JAPAN
^bDepartment of Industrial Administration, Faculty of Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Science, Chiba, JAPAN, and Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Kyoto, JAPAN

It is said that the cogeneration system(CGS) and Heat pump system(HP) are the effective air conditioning systems for energy saving and CO2 reduction in the commercial buildings as well as residential houses. However, the economic, energy and environmental efficiency indicators of these systems vary so much depending on the weather condition and the demand patterns of heat and electric power. In this research, we develop a model to evaluate the optimum decision on the capacity and the operating pattern of air conditioning system by nonlinear mixing integer programming in order to formulate the partial load properties of heating equipments in practical operation considering the climate conditions. The feature of this model is also applicable to assess the energy system planning of the building and urban district. The results show us that the optimum planning including the installation of equipments depends on the regional conditions and the characteristics of the energy systems.

Keywords: Commercial building, Cogeneration system, Heat Pump System, Nonlinear Mixed integer programming

Corresponding author: Takeshi Ishida

From Research to Policy Support: The Challenge of Conveying the Few Messages that Can Make a Difference

Stéphane ISOARD
Scenarios and Future Analysis group, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen,DENMARK

From a policy support perspective, the energy and climate change realm often appear ‘crowded’. It is not an easy task indeed to find the most up-to-date or relevant information amongst the wealth of resources available, or to find its way through the many models that occasionally give conflicting results. Research activities are hectic and have obvious scientific benefits at global, regional and national levels; however they are difficult to grasp for non-experts due to their inherent complexity and jargon. In this context, strategic thinking for communication and action seems critical to any scenario exercise, for fear of overlooking key results in the policy arena; designing proper avenues for conveying complex and uncertain results appears of prime importance, in particular with regard to potential crosscutting policy options. This presentation will build primarily upon the latest EEA climate change scenario exercise that assumes a drastic reduction of GHG emissions compatible with EU’s long-term sustainable objectives.

Keywords: Policy support, post-2012 climate change regimes, long-term environmental objectives

Corresponding author: Stéphane Isoard

Optimal Design and Economic Effects of Renewable Energy System for Effective Utilization of Animal Manure and Wood Biomass in Rural Areas in Japan

Y. ITOH, Toshihiko NAKATA
Management of Science and Technology (MOST), Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University, Sendai, JAPAN

The main objective of this paper is to design the renewable energy system and to analyze the economic effects for installing the energy system in rural areas in Japan, using an optimization model and input-output technique. The cost of the disposal of animal manure and the collection of woody biomass are also considered in the study. The energy system consists of wind, animal manure, wood biomass, and solar as renewable energy resources, and conventional energy resources (see figure). Besides the configuration and operation of the system taking into account hour-by-hour energy availability, the model will show the energy system configuration and its cost in the long-term for future prospects to promote the effective utilization of renewable energy resources.

Figure: Energy flow of renewable energy system in rural areas

Corresponding author: Y. Itoh

The Trend of LNG Prices and Inter-fuel Substitution in Power Sector in Some APEC Asian Economies

Yonghun JUNG, Naoko DOI
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC), Tokyo, JAPAN

Since the Asian financial crisis, the demand for electricity has been accelerating to support rebounding economic growth in Northeast Asia. Moreover the mid- to long-term demand forecasts seem to suggest even higher rate of growth due mainly to, for example, the wider distribution of electrical appliances, and rapid urbanization among others. To meet the challenging need for power generation fuels, all resources have been mobilized, in particular, coal and natural gas. Despite its dominance, coal has been as much avoided as natural gas becomes competitive in terms of fuel cost and for environmental reasons. Slow, but steady internalization of the environmental externality in fuel prices combined with downward shifts in long-term LNG prices is beginning to take hold such that natural gas is penetrating rapidly the power generation market in many countries in the world. In our note/presentation, we will analyze the factors affecting the natural gas prices and investigate the potential role of LNG in addressing climate change.

Keywords: LNG, inter-fuel substitution, electricity generation, climate change

Corresponding author: Yonghun Jung

GHG Emission Reduction Potentials and Mitigation Cost Analysis in World Regions

Mikiko KAINUMA^a, Yuzuru MATSUOKA^b, Go HIBINO^c, Junich FUJINO^a, Tatsuya HANAOKA^a, Maho MIYASHITA^c, Osamu AKASHI^b, Rajesh NAIR^a, Rahul PANDEY^d
aSocial and Environmental Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Ibaraki, JAPAN
^bGraduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JAPAN
^cMizuho Information & Research Institute, Inc., Tokyo, JAPAN
^dIndian Institute of Management, Lucknow, INDIA

Measures such as market-driven investments and policy instruments have large impacts on inducing technological developments, so that it is important to analyze the potentials of GHG emission reductions due to technological developments. In order to evaluate global and regional mitigation measures, AIM/enduse model in world regions, which is the bottom-up model of detailed technology selections, has been developed and GHG reduction potentials and marginal abatement costs were estimated in multi-sectors in 21 regions in the year 2020. To achieve these reduction potentials, it is essential to set up frameworks of technology transfers and financial aid to developing nations.

Keywords: climate change, GHG emission reduction, abatement cost, enduse

Corresponding author: Mikiko Kainuma

Analysis of the Energy Access Improvement and its Socio-economic Impacts in Rural Areas of Developing Countries

Makoto KANAGAWA, Toshihiko NAKATA
Management of Science and Technology (MOST), Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University, Sendai, JAPAN

In this study, we have developed an energy-economic model of rural areas in India to analyze optimal energy system for alleviating energy poverty, and evaluate socioeconomic effects of the energy access improvement in terms of health hazard. Relying on traditional biomass, households in the areas are consuming fuelwood in manner of unsustainable way, and are harmed by hazardous pollutants. As a result of the analysis, it is revealed that, considering opportunity cost of collecting fuelwood, LPG is widely adopted by the households and the exposure to the pollutants is largely alleviated to the same level to Japanese environmental criteria.

Keywords: Energy poverty, Energy access, RSPM exposure, rural area, developing country

Corresponding author: Makoto Kanagawa

Dynamic Modeling of Diffusion Process of FCVs Taking into Account Convenience of Hydrogen Refueling

Takeyoshi KATO, Norio HINO, Yasuo SUZUOKI
Graduate School of Engineering, Nagoya University, Nagoya, JAPAN

For a rapid diffusion of Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs), a convenience of refueling hydrogen is one of the important factors as well as extensive cost reduction of FCV and hydrogen. Based on 1 km grid square statistics on population, buildings, etc., we develop a dynamic model of diffusion process of FCVs where total number of hydrogen stations around FCV users place is taken into account to incorporate the convenience of refueling FCVs. With the model, we discuss the effective location and variety of hydrogen stations, a strategy of subsidy scheme to FCVs and hydrogen stations, etc.

Keywords: Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs), hydrogen, refueling stations

Corresponding author: Takeyoshi KATO

Analysis of CO2 Emissions in Long-Term National Scenarios for Climate Stabilization

Reina KAWASE^a, Yuzuru MATSUOKA^b, Mikiko KAINUMA^b
aGlobal Integrated Assessment Modeling Lab., Department of Global Ecology, Graduate school of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JAPAN
^bIntegrated Assessment Modeling Section, Social and Environmental Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Ibaraki, JAPAN

Many EU countries have released national long-term scenarios aiming at more than 50% reductions from current levels. This paper analyzes the CO2 emission in the long-term national climate stabilization scenarios in other countries and the medium-term scenarios. In this study, CO2 emission is decomposed with an extended Kaya identity and a Reduction Balance Table is developed. The research shows that in order to achieve the ambitious target, the pace of energy intensity improvement and carbon intensity decrease must be 2-3 times greater than the previous 40-year historical change, and the change rates need to be maintained for 50 years.

Keywords: CO2 emission, Energy intensity, Carbon intensity, carbon capture and storage

Corresponding author: Reina Kawase

Total Assessment of Hydrogen Energy System

Yoichi KAYA, Keigo AKIMOTO
Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Kyoto, JAPAN

There is a high expectation that hydrogen will be a dominant secondary energy in the long term future due to its carbon free and zero emission character. This paper aims at evaluation of total efficiency of hydrogen energy system in comparison with that of fully electrified system which seems highly compatible with it. The result indicates that remarkable progress in hydrogen related technologies, particularly those of converting primary energy into hydrogen and fuel cells is indispensable for hydrogen to be one of main secondary energies in the future energy system.

Corresponding author: Keigo Akimoto

Inherently Safe Nuclear Reactors for Reducing Greenhouse Emissions

Andrew Kenny
Energy Research Centre, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, SOUTH AFRICA

Nuclear power has outstanding attributes as a clean, safe, reliable source of electricity with very low greenhouse emissions over the full energy cycle. However, it has had two major disadvantages in the past: high capital costs and poor public perception.

A new generation of nuclear reactors addresses both of these problems. These are the small, simple, inherently safe reactors, characterised by South Africa’s proposed Pebble Bed Modular Reactor. They have low capital costs and quick construction time. They are ideal for developed and developing countries alike. They can be used for electricity production, hydrogen production and water desalination.

Keywords: nuclear, inherently safe, greenhouse gases

Corresponding author: Andrew Kenny

Ryoichi KOMIYAMA^a, Li ZHIDONG^b, Kokichi ITO^a
aThe Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), Tokyo, JAPAN
^bNagaoka University of Technology, Nagaoka Niigata, JAPAN

This paper presents a consistent energy demand-supply projection in Northeast Asia, focusing on China, developed by an integrated econometric model, and analyzes regional CO2 mitigation strategy, such as IGCC, nuclear and energy conservation, to 2030 in a consistent way. Vigorous economic growth, soaring electricity demand and progressive motorization are going to expand the primary energy demand particularly in China, eventually positioning China as an important player in terms of regional CO2 emissions increase. It is, against this background, becoming increasingly important for CO2 emissions issue to be addressed as one where all Northeast Asian countries have a common stake and can elaborately commit themselves.

Keywords: China, Northeast Asia, CO2 emissions, integrated econometric model, primary energy demand, power generation, motorization

Corresponding author: Ryoichi Komiyama

Takanobu KOSUGI
College of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto, JAPAN

The energy supply-demand technology mix model developed earlier by the authors is expanded to analyze consumers electricity prices and their impact on the diffusion of dispersed power generation systems in residential and commercial sectors in Japan up to 2030. The analysis will show the difference in dispersed power generation installations estimated between two cases: the case of a time-fluctuating electricity price according to the marginal cost of utility power generation at each month and hour, and the case of a constant electricity price regardless of month/hour, which roughly reflects the ordinary price system in Japan. The analysis will also show the condition on the discount rate of consumers energy investments for the autonomous diffusion of dispersed power generation.

Keywords: Decentralized power generation, cogeneration, energy systems model, linear programming

Corresponding author: Takanobu Kosugi

CO2 Capture and Storage: Impact of Accounting Rule to Energy System and Climate

Atsushi KUROSAWA^a, Chisato YOSHIGAHARA^b, Kenshi ITAOKA^b
aThe Institute of Applied Energy, Tokyo, JAPAN
^bMizuho Information & Research Institute, Inc., Tokyo, JAPAN

CO2 capture and storage (CCS) is one of CO2 mitigation options. There is large uncertainty of leakage to atmosphere in the long-run, depending on its seal structure or incidents. We have constructed formula to simulate long-term release to the atmosphere, considering CCS characteristics. On the other hand, UNFCCC inventory rule requires annual estimate of GHG emissions. We proposed several kinds of inventory accounting schemes including discounting or compensation of a part of CO2 amount by CCS. The analysis has been made by integrated assessment model to simulate accounting rule effects to the energy system, CO2 emissions and atmospheric concentration.

Keywords: CO2 capture and storage, integrated assessment model, inventory and accounting

Corresponding author: Atsushi Kurosawa

TIMES Modeling of Energy, Emission and Climate Scenarios

Maryse LABRIET^a, Richard LOULOU^ab, Amit KANUDIA^ac, Kathleen VAILLANCOURT^a
a Group for Research in Decision Analysis (GERAD), Montreal, Quebec, CANADA
^b McGill University and HALOA, Montreal, Quebec, CANADA
^c KanORS Consulting Inc., Montreal, Quebec, CANADA

TIMES model is used to represent world energy and climate scenarios up to 2100. The transition from the MARKAL database to TIMES includes: keeping most of the structure of the 15-region MARKAL database; new assumptions about the long-term energy service demands, resources availability and specific energy policies/behaviours to be reflected in the base case; the implementation of a climate module and of non-energy and non-CO2 abatement cost curves. Results are presented for the reference and some climate control cases.

Keywords: MARKAL/TIMES model, energy/emission scenarios, climate change

Corresponding author: Maryse Labriet

Modelling the Effects of CO2 Emissions Trading on Electricity Prices, Industry and Economy

Antti LEHTILÄ, M. KARA, S. SYRI
VTT Processes, VTT, FINLAND

The impacts of the EU CO2 emissions trading system on electricity prices and energy-intensive industries in the Nordic area were analysed as an assignment carried out for the Finnish Minister of Trade and Industry. The plausible impacts of emissions trading were studied by using the VTT electricity market model and the integrated TIMES energy system model. Direct economic impacts on power plant operators, investment decisions and different consumer groups were assessed. In addition, impacts on the national economy were modelled in collaboration with the Government Institute for Economic Research (VATT). This presentation describes the modelling work undertaken in the study and the main results and recommended measures against the non-desirable impacts.

Keywords: Nordic electricity market, emissions trading, CO2 emissions, windfall profit, energy-intensive industry.

Corresponding author: Antti Lehtilä

China's Energy Demand and Supply Outlook up to 2020 and Its Energy Strategy Implication

Xiaoli LIU
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC), Tokyo, JAPAN

In the past more than 20 years China’s GDP has quadrupled while its energy consumption has only doubled. How much energy will be needed in building China’s “well-off society” to support the economic and social development objectives? This paper presents China’s energy demand and its structure through 2020 as well as future energy supply potential, focusing on analyzing major factors affecting future energy demand and supply, such as industrialization, urbanization, motorization, policies adopted, environmental issue, energy resources, infrastructure development of energy system, energy security concern and water issue. It also outlines China’s energy strategy implication in order to achieve the target of government’s economy development.

Keywords: Energy Demand, Energy Supply, Energy Policy, and Energy Strategy Implication

Corresponding author: Xiaoli Liu

Analyzing the Oil Price-GDP Relationship and its Historical Changes

Akira MAEDA, Tetsuo TEZUKA
Graduate School of Energy Science, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JAPAN

This paper analyzes the impacts of high oil prices on macroeconomy and their historical changes by each country. Working on an analytical model, we show that the oil price-real GDP / nominal price elasticities can be roughly estimated from current oil prices, GDP and oil imports and exports. Being different from large-scale modeling, our approach is based on simple algebra with clear assumptions, which provides policy makers with more transparent and useful insights: the vulnerability of economies vis-à-vis oil price increase, in light of both GDP and the price level, had sharply declined in the late-1980s and stayed low through 1990s; Euro-zone countries in these days are becoming vulnerable more than before while Japan stays firm.

Keywords: World oil prices, Real GDP, Nominal prices, Price elasticity

Corresponding author: Akira Maeda

Trade Sanctions and Kyoto Policies

Ton MANDERS, Johannes BOLLEN
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The NETHERLANDS

As Kyoto has come into force, it seems that trade sanctions to combat potential negative impacts on EU-competiveness are "WTO-proof". The opposing views from empirical research and simulation studies leave room to the fear of deteriorating competitiveness, substantial sectoral adjustments and carbon leakage. Simulations with WorldScan, a global general equilibrium model, focus on Kyoto policies and provide alternative answers to the question how to alleviate the problems associated with this policy. Import tariffs and export subsidies, that compensate the effect of the energy tax on production cost, restore the competitiveness of European industries, at home and abroad. Both compensating import tariffs and export subsidies thus help to alleviate the problem of carbon leakage. They accomplish that the reduction of European CO2 emissions is achieved by improving energy efficiency rather than by relocation of industries. The major difference between these two additional instruments is their effect on the term of trade. Import tariffs bring about terms-of-trade gains, and export subsidies a loss. Tariffs have favourable, both economic and environmental, consequences, whereas subsidies bring into play a trade-off between economy and environment.

Keywords: Kyoto Protocol; Economics; Carbon Leakage; Trade sanctions, Efficiency, Climate Change Policies

Corresponding author: Ton Manders

Environmental Policy Analysis in Iran: Application of Energy Input-Output Table

Davood MANZOOR
Imam Sadegh University, Tehran, IRAN

Energy is a primary recourse used directly and indirectly in the production of all goods and services in the economy. Energy production and use results to carbon dioxide emissions which cause greenhouse effect and climate change problem. Trade-offs among energy security, environmental protection, and economic growth is a major concern for energy policy making. The main aim of this paper is to discuss the use of input-output analysis to model energy-environment-economy interactions in Iran. In an input-output approach, the economic structure is defined in terms of sectors which provide a modelling framework for policy analysis. In its recent applications, input-output model has been extended to reflect the link between the level of economic activity, the corresponding energy requirements and its impact on the environment. This approach can provide a systematic tool to evaluate the impacts of environmental policies. This paper applies input-output technique to analyze the energy-economy-environment interactions in Iran, taking into account the energy intensities and carbon dioxide emissions caused by energy use. The paper presents a description of the appropriate modifications to the basic input-output model as regards the environmental impacts of energy use, followed by an outline of the data used. Finally, some results on energy requirements and carbon dioxide emissions in Iran are reported.

Keywords: Energy Policy; Input-Output Analysis; Iran

Corresponding author: Davood Manzoor

Economic Impacts of Energy Saving Investment to Reduce CO2 Emission in Japan

Toshihiko MASUI^a, Tatsuya HANAOKA^a, Mikiko KAINUMA^a, Saeko HIKITA^b
aSocial and Environmental Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Ibaraki, JAPAN
^bDepartment of Social Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology Tokyo, JAPAN

AIM/Enduse model, which is the bottom-up model consisting of energy consumption technologies, can select the least cost advanced technology sets to meet the energy service demand. In order to make active use of these results, the global dynamic optimization model with endogenous technological change has been developed. The results of AIM/Enduse Japan, the relationship between additional energy saving investment and energy efficiency improvement in Japan, reflects the formulation of endogenous energy efficiency change in Japan. By using this dynamic model, the optimal mitigation strategies considering the energy saving investment and their economic impacts under the CO2 emission constraint can be examined.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, Endogenous technological change, Energy saving investment, Integrated assessment models

Corresponding author: Toshihiko MASUI

Development of an Integrated Assessment System for the Impact, Mitigation and Adaptation Options of the Global Warming –
Project PHOENIX 2005

Shunsuke MORI^ab, Keigo AKIMOTO^b, Koji TOKIMATSU^b, Ayami HAYASI^b,
Takashi HONMA^b, Fuminori SANO^b, Toshimasa TOMODA^b
aDepartment of Industrial Administration, Faculty of Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Science, Chiba, JAPAN
^bResearch Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Kyoto, JAPAN

This paper presents the outline and the current activities of Project PHOENIX for the assessment of global warming impacts, mitigation and adaptation options. The project PHOENIX consists of three major targets: (1) the development of an integrate assessment procedure to deal with the long-term, uncertain and irreversible abrupt events and middle term policy and technology options. Mitigation options and adaptive possibilities are also taken into account. (2) Development of an energy-economic model which can evaluate the industry structural changes as well as the scenario of the energy systems, and (3) development of an warming impact assessment mainly based on the literature including an model development for the evaluation of agricultural production potential. Firstly we extract some acceptable IPCC-SRES based GHG emission pathways whether the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation, a case of abrupt events, can be avoided. Secondly, the pathways are again evaluated from regional possible impacts. GIS based model is applied. Other technological and economic options are then assessed using multiple models. For the near term economic analysis, we have developed a multi-sectoral, multi-regional dynamic model, named DEARS base on GTAP data base. We also developed a GIS based model to evaluate the impacts on agricultural potential production. These outputs as well as the information in the literature are then summarized in a “scoreboard table” to compare the scenarios from multiple views including monetary term. The policy and technological questions on the climate change issues are addressed quantitatively in the PHOENIX project.

Keywords: integrated assessment, global warming, multi-sectoral and multi-regional model, energy and economic model

Corresponding author: Shunsuke Mori

Stochastic Integrated Assessment Modelling: the Climate Risk Premium

Georg MUELLER-FUERSTENBERGER
Applied Microeconomics, Economics Department, Bern University, Bern, SWITZERLAND

Climate policy faces uncertainty with respect to both economic and ecological parameters. To date, the inherently stochastic nature is captured mostly by sensitivity analysis and scenario based analysis. This paper provides an innovation to the Integrated Assessment framework by adopting a stochastic growth model. Risk-sensitive agents attach probability distributions to key parameters which feed back into optimal policy design. Key parameters relate to climate damages, – in particular to major disruptions with small probability - long-run economic growth and technological improvements. The stochastic growth approach allows to compute a climate risk-premium on interest rates and energy prices similar to the risk premium on uncertain physical capital returns.

Keywords: Stochastic growth, integrated assessment modelling, climate risk-premium

Corresponding author: Georg Mueller-Fuerstenberger

Long-term Analysis of Global CO2 Emission Reductions by Efficient Technologies

Y. NAGATA^a, K. FUKUDA^b, Y. MORI^c
aCentral Research Institute of Electric Industry, Tokyo, JAPAN
^bMitsubishi Research Institute, Inc., Tokyo, JAPAN
^cJKL, Inc., Tokyo, JAPAN

Reducing the emissions of CO2, a most dominant global warming gas, is an urgent task for the countries that ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which came into effect on February 16, 2005. This study analyzed the role of efficient energy technologies and the achievable solution to reducing and/or offsetting CO2 emissions globally taking into consideration the supply constraint of fossil fuels to 2030. The multi-regional dynamic optimization type energy model was developed for this study. The result shows the introduction of clean-coal technologies is especially important for reducing CO2 emissions in Japan; however, its amount is greatly affected by the cost of CO2 sequestration.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy model, efficient energy technology

Corresponding author: Yutaka Nagata

How much can "soft kyoto" Achieve? Assessing the impact of renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and voluntary carbon emissions reductions in the united states

A.J. GOULDING, Keiko NOMURA
London Economics International, Boston, MA, USA

While the US opted not to participate in the Kyoto Protocol, it has pursued a program of renewable energy development combined with a scheme of voluntary emissions reductions by large energy users. The renewable program, driven by strong state and some federal incentives, has resulted in considerable renewable energy development: total non-hydro renewable capacity stands at 27,000 MW, with roughly 9,800 MW of biomass, 6,000 MW of wind power, and 5,900 MW of wood/wood waste already developed. Wind energy development has developed at a very strong pace, with average annual growth rate from 1999 to 2003 at 23%.

The “Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)” program is a market-based strategy that aims to incentive renewable technologies and increase renewable development throughout the country. State RPS standards require utilities to purchase a given percentage of their energy from renewable sources.

This paper analyzes the US model of combining voluntary reductions with incentives for renewable energy development. It evaluates the structures and goals for federal and state RPS programs and provides an assessment of gains realized, potential obstacles, and future trends.

Corresponding author: Keiko Nomura

Scenario Planning of Energy-related Crises in East Asia

Ryota OMORI^a, Hideyuki HORII^b
a Japan Science and Technology Agency, Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society, Tokyo, JAPAN
^b Graduate School of Engineering, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JAPAN

Growing demands for energy in East Asia, especially in China, will have significant influences on the energy security and geopolitics in this region. We have launched a scenario planning team consisting of 10 experts from a wide variety of disciplines and discussed a range of factors that could be considered drivers for various types of energy crises in the region. We analyzed the importance, the uncertainty, and the interdependency of the drivers and developed energy-related crisis scenarios in East Asia by 2020. From the scenarios we have also discussed the implications for government research and development activities.

Keywords: Research and Development Policy, Scenario Planning, Energy Crisis, East Asia

Corresponding author: Ryota Omori

Towards Construction of a Global Energy System Utilizing Carbonized Biomass

Pyong Sik PAK^a, Makoto TAKAOKA^b
a Department of Bioinformatic Engineering, Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, Osaka University, Osaka, JAPAN
^b Takuma Co., Ltd., Hyogo, JAPAN

A global energy system utilizing carbonized biomass is proposed. In the proposed system, biomass is pyrolyzed to produce carbonized fuel which is easy to transport and is shipped to energy-consuming countries. The proposed energy system needs no plants such as electrolysis and methanol synthesis as well as CO2 capturing system, being different from other global energy systems that use renewable energy such as solar energy or wind power. Hence its economical feasibility is expected to be very high. The proposed system has the following features: sustainable, CO2 neutral, making it possible to use a large amount of biomass energy from overseas.

Keywords: Global energy system, Biomass, Carbonization, Global warming, Sustainable society

Corresponding author: Pyong Sik PAK

Negative Emissions Energy and CO2 Levels

Aroon PARSHOTAM^a, Ian ENTING^b, Peter READ^c
aMathematics Dept., Massey University, Palmerston North, NEW ZEALAND
^bARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematics and Statistics of Complex Systems (MASCOS), The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, AUSTRALIA
^cApplied and International Economics Dept., Massey University, Palmerston North, NEW ZEALAND

Simulation modelling with FLAMES demonstrates BECS technology in reducing Carbon in atmosphere (Cat) towards pre-industrial levels under strong land use change policy e.g. motivated by Abrupt Climate Change (ACC) precursor signals [1]. An important limitation of the analysis is that the response of the carbon cycle to net emissions is represented as relaxation, with single time constant, to pre-industrial levels. This limitation was noted and it was suggested, on the basis of comparing earlier studies of emission reductions, that the differences could be significant [2]. The present paper gives a more comprehensive analysis of the issues and gives an approximate recalculation of the results in [1].

[1] Read, P., and Lermit, 2004. Bio-Energy with Carbon Storage (BECS): a Sequential Decision Approach to the threat of Abrupt Climate Change. Energy. In press (www.sciencedirect.com EGY1413).
[2] Parshotam and Read, 2005. CO2 levels under BECS (Bio-Energy with Carbon Storage) with improved C dynamics. Submitted to Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Special Issue “Abrupt Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: contributions to the Expert Workshop, Paris, 30.ix.04 – 1.x.04.

Keywords: bio-energy, abrupt climate change, BECS, FLAMES

Corresponding author: Aroon Parshotam

Modeling Electricity Sector in India with Sub-regional Details

Vivek KARANDIKAR, Ashish RANA, Ravikumar PREKKI, Prasanna DANI
Energy Research Group, Reliance Industries Ltd., Mumbai, INDIA

Since India is a geographically large country the interregional dynamics play an important role for electricity sector policy. Typically, the models of electricity sector in India deal with whole country as one. This paper discusses the development of a state-of-the-art technology model for electricity sector in India with sub-regional detail and several policy simulations are run. The model explicitly treats transmission lines between the sub-regions. The paper discusses implications of regional distribution of investments and technologies for regional development and CO2 emission profiles in electricity sector. Utilization of regionally available resources is an important factor in development of power sector in a region. Investments in new capacities depend not only on the regional resources but also on demand patterns which are also different in different regions. The analysis of regionally-varying opportunities for CO2 emission mitigation in electricity sector and issues for modeling sub-regional details are discussed.

Keywords: Electricity sector, India, Sub-regional, Policy, CO2 emissions

Corresponding author: Ashish Rana

Building a Global Bio-energy Market

Peter READ
Massey University, Massey University, Palmerston North, NEW ZEALAND

An Expert Workshop to address the policy implications of abrupt climate change (www.accstrategy.org) concluded last October that policy makers should be urged to develop a large-scale global bio-energy market with world trade in liquid bio-fuels [1]. Numerous side benefits resulting from such a development are discussed. Demand and supply aspects of a global bio-energy market are considered in the context of a prospective ‘coalition of the winning’, having regard to available technologies appropriate in different regions and to prospective technological advances. Likely patterns of trade resulting from the negotiated application of a technology-oriented policy instrument are assessed.

Keywords: Bio-energy; energy markets, technology oriented policy, abrupt climate change
[1] P.Read “Carbon cycle management with increased photo-synthesis and long-term sinks” presented to ‘Stabilisation2005’ Scientific Symposium, Hadley Centre for Climate Research, Exeter, 1-3 February, 2005 and (revised) to the European Geosciences Union, Vienna, 24-29 April, 2005.

Corresponding author: Peter Read

Considering Extraction Constraints in Long-term Oil Supply Modelling

T. REHRL, R. FRIEDRICH, A. VOSS
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (IER), University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, GERMANY

Apart from divergence about the remaining global oil resources, the peak oil discussion can be reduced to a dispute about the time rate at which these resources can be supplied. In this work we study long-term constraints on the rate of oil supply and discuss some prevalent approaches of taking these temporal availability constraints into account in oil market modelling. After an economic interpretation of Hubbert curves, we embed them in our long-term oil market model LOPEX for deriving endogenous oil price and extraction paths. The resulting oil price projections are much higher compared to projections for example by IEA.

Keywords: Hubbert curve; oil market modelling; oil price; LOPEX

Corresponding author: Tobias Rehrl

Perspectives of Electric Power Generation in Europe – Dealing with Policy Impacts, Sustainability and Post-Kyoto Targets

Uwe REMME, Markus BLESL, Alfred VOSS
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (IER), University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, GERMANY

The electricity sector is a main component in the European energy system. The developments in this sector and the evolution of electricity generation technologies will play an important role in tackling the challenges of liberalization, climate protection and security of energy supply.

In this paper the development potential of various electricity generation technologies is presented followed by an analysis of the long-term perspectives of the electric power sector in Europe with a regionalized TIMES model. In different scenarios regarding policy instruments and Post-Kyoto GHG reduction pathways, the economic, supply-side related and environmental impacts of the generation technologies are assessed.

Keywords: electricity generation technologies, Europe, energy system analysis, GHG mitigation, policies, sustainability

Corresponding author: Uwe Remme

The Role of Carbon Taxes and R&D Subsidies in Climate Policy

Thomas F. RUTHERFORD
Department of Economics at the University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA

We study the role of technology subsidies in climate policies, using a simple dynamic equilibrium model with learning by doing. The optimal subsidy rate of a carbon-free technology is high when the technology is first adopted, but falls significantly over the next decades. However, the efficiency costs of uniform instead of optimal subsidies, may be low if there are introduction or expansion constraints for a new technology. Finally, supporting existing energy technologies only, may lead to technology lock-in, and the impacts of lock-in increase with the learning potential of new technologies as well as the possibilities for early entry and tight carbon constraints.

Corresponding author: Thomas F. Rutherford

The Impact of Energy Price Increase on Providing Energy for the Poor in Iran

Mehdi SADEGHI^a, Mohsen BAKHTIAR^b, Alimorad SHARIFFI^c,
^aEconomics Department, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, IRAN
^bEnergy Planning Office, Ministry of Energy, Tehran, IRAN
^cEconomics Department, Esfahan University, Esfahan, IRAN

Energy is a vital resource for communities everywhere. A limitation on energy availability constrains the overall development and welfare. In Iran, most rural areas have been supplied with electricity 20 years ago. It goes without saying that almost all the poor in rural areas could have access to electricity despite having other limitations on infrastructure and facilities. In general, energy carriers are more or less available, although income in rural areas is so low that the poor cannot afford to buy commercial energy as the prices are not inexpensive enough. Most of kerosene produced in the country, is allocated to the rural areas. In 2002, the price of kerosene per litre was about 1.6 cents, while LPG was about 0.6 cent per kg and fuel oil price as low as 0.9 cent per litre .Electricity is widespread along the rural areas. Its tariff for household consumption was about one cent and .015 cent per kWh for the agriculture sector in 2002. Thus at present the poor are supported against economic adjustment policies, however in another way these subsidized energy pricing could not be continued as energy efficiency is affected by these distorted energy prices. Moreover these prices have a huge financial burden on the government, Iran has been moving toward WTO accession, with respect to economic liberalization and many of the distorted energy prices must be removed .This removal will open the way toward international economic relations with rest of the world. It means Iran will be influenced from the globalization process, but the question remains as to what would happen to the poor following such a shift. Working towards the globalization process, the poor could provide energy for themselves. Under globalization, the energy prices would not remain at these low levels. In Iran, the government would not be able to compensate the poor against energy price adjustment. Therefore the main question is what would be the impact of globalization on energy availability of the poor. This paper deals with several impact issues of globalization on the energy provided for the poor. Since globalization is not avoidable what would the remedies be for overcoming the impacts of globalization on the disadvantaged? Obviously the poor could be assisted in the medium- and long-term differently. We would prescribe a model in which the poor could maintain their energy sources against the impacts of globalization.

Keywords: energy subsidy, energy price adjustment, commercial energy, globalization, WTO

Corresponding author: Mehdi Sadeghi

Evaluation of Various International Schemes for Climate Change Mitigation after Kyoto Protocol

Fuminori SANO, Keigo AKIMOTO, Takashi HOMMA, Toshimasa TOMODA
Systems Analysis Group, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Kyoto, JAPAN

For constructing the concrete scheme for climate change mitigation after Kyoto protocol, it is important to estimate the regional costs, to assess technological options for various targets and to evaluate them from the equity viewpoint. Several schemes for burden sharing of CO2 reduction, e.g. the scheme achieving the convergence of the regional CO2 emissions per capita, were evaluated by using a new developed world energy systems model having 77 regions. The obtained regional costs, CO2 reductions, etc. were integrated into some conceptual indices such as burden equity by using a covariance structure analysis. Each scheme was evaluated through those indices.

Keywords: Energy systems model, Climate policy, Kyoto protocol, Post-Kyoto regimes, Burden sharing

Corresponding author: Fuminori Sano

Upward transportation trends appear as a major stumbling block to mitigate climate change. Assessing opportunities to reduce GHG emissions and their costs therefore requires to address the specific dynamics of transportation. This paper is a first attempt at seizing non-trivial mechanisms such as the induction of demand by infrastructures, inertia in consumption patterns, the role of the oil price in modal choice and mobility, the rebound effect due to energy efficiency improvements. The introduction of such dynamics in the recursive hybrid model IMACLIM-R deeply modifies the efficiency of a carbon tax to stabilize long-term concentrations, depending on assumptions regarding the infrastructure policy, the asymptote in the long-run energy efficiency of vehicles, and endogenous oil price dynamics.

Keywords: transportation, rebound effect, mitigation

Corresponding author: Olivier Sassi

Japan’s Long-term Energy Scenarios and the Role of Nuclear Energy

Osamu SATO
Department of Nuclear Energy System, Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute, Ibaraki, JAPAN

A study was made on the evolution of energy demand and supply toward the year 2050 and on the potential benefits of nuclear energy utilization in Japan. For this purpose, assumptions were made on future economic growths, improvement in energy intensity, and availability and costs of energy sources and energy technologies. Then, based on these assumptions, three cases of long-term energy scenarios were developed with a different scale of nuclear energy utilization, and possible role of nuclear energy was analyzed through their comparison. It was indicated from this study that expansion of nuclear energy utilization will contribute to reduce dependency on imported fossil energy, and therefore, to increase stability of energy supply, and to control carbon dioxide emissions at significantly low levels with acceptable costs.

Keywords: Energy demand and supply, Energy scenarios, Nuclear energy, Fossil energy, Carbon dioxide, Costs

Corresponding author: Osamu Sato

Renewable Energy Policy Analysis in Japan: A Simulation with a Computable General Equilibrium Model

Takemi SATO^a, Toshihiko NAKATA^a, Ronald SANDS^b
aManagement of Science and Technology (MOST), Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University, Sendai, JAPAN
^bPacific Northwest National Laboratory, USA

Second generation model for Japan (SGM-Japan) is a computable general equilibrium model for estimating the abatement cost of carbon mitigation policies in Japan. This study provides the abatement costs of renewable portfolio standards (RPS), which is current renewable energy policy in Japan, and other policies such as renewable energy feed-in tariffs (REFIT) through the analysis by the extended SGM that can model renewable energies explicitly. And then the best combination of renewable energy policy and other carbon mitigation policies such as carbon tax is proposed.

Keywords: renewable energy policy, computable general equilibrium model

Corresponding author: Takemi SATO

Towards Political Feasibility: Burden-sharing Rules for Stabilizing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations from an Equity Perspective

Asami Miketa, Leo Schrattenholzer

The authors selected three major equity principles, i.e., egalitarian equity, horizontal equity, and proportional equality (often referred to also as sovereign equity) to carry out a detailed examination of two sets of quantitative emission entitlements, which are based on two burden-sharing rules, i.e., the equal emissions per capita approach and the carbon intensity approach. We then used the two rules for allocating the global emissions described by a path leading to an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 550 ppmv to 67 countries and 9 world regions. We then assessed how these allocations from the perspective of the three equity principles.

Corresponding author: Leo Schrattenholzer

Atmospheric and Geological CO2 Damage Costs in Energy Scenarios

Koen SMEKENS^a, Bob van der ZWAAN^a,b
aEnergy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Policy Studies Department, Petten, The NETHERLANDS
^bHarvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Cambridge, MA, USA

Geological carbon capture and storage (CCS) is currently seriously considered for addressing, in the near term, the problem of climate change. CCS technology is available today and is expected to become an increasingly affordable CO2 abatement alternative. Whereas the rapidly growing scientific literature on CCS as well as experimental and commercial practice demonstrate the technological and economic feasibility of implementing this clean fossil fuel option on a large scale, relatively little attention has been paid so far to the risks and environmental externalities of geological storage of CO2. This study assesses the effects of including CCS damage costs in a long-term energy scenario analysis for Europe. An external cost sensitivity analysis is performed with a bottom-up energy technology MARKAL model that accounts not only for CCS technologies but also for their external costs. Our main conclusion is that even without climate change intervention, CCS technologies are likely to be deployed, mainly in the power generation sector, given the economic benefits of opportunities such as enhanced coal bed methane recovery. With the introduction of CO2 taxation, designed to internalise the external atmospheric and geological effects of CO2 emissions and storage, we find that CCS will only be developed if the global warming damage cost is at least some 100 EUR/tCO2 or the damage cost resulting from CO2 storage not more than a few EUR/tCO2. When the internalised global warming damage costs are as high as 100 EUR/tCO2, the expensive application of CCS to biomass-fuelled power plants (with negative net CO2 emissions) proves the most effective CCS alternative to reduce CO2 emissions, rather than CCS applied to fossil-based power plants.

Keywords: Carbon dioxide, global warming, carbon capture and storage, external costs, bottom-up energy-environment model, MARKAL

Corresponding author: Bob van der Zwaan

Difference in Optimal Strategies between Transportation Modes
under the CO2 Stabilization Target of 550 ppm

Takayuki TAKESHITA, Kenji YAMAJI
Department of Advanced Energy, Graduate School of Frontier, Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JAPAN

Using a bottom-up type global energy model that specifies the transportation sector and the full supply chain of transportation fuel in great detail, we examine how to drive the transportation sector into a sustainable path that could stabilize the global atmospheric CO2 concentration at 550 ppmv in 2100. Six modes are distinguished for passenger transport and five for freight, and the model takes into consideration distinctive characteristics of these modes, e.g., in terms of cost, efficiency, lifetime, load factor, and available technological options. Our presentation will identify the differences in optimal strategies between modes, and niche markets for hydrogen introduction.

Keywords: Transportation sector, Fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen, Global energy model analysis

Corresponding author: Takayuki Takeshita

A Socio-technical Perspective of Energy Models and Scenarios

GianCarlo TOSATO
IEA/ETSAP and Socio-economic Studies at the European Fusion Development Agreement, Garching bei Munich, GERMANY

Energy systems, which experts project through their models, appear hardly sustainable in the long-term. Every proposed mix of energy vectors and technologies has benefits as well as drawbacks. Furthermore, it is impossible in economic terms to reconcile basic criteria such as economic development, security of providing energy services, environmental protection and climate change mitigation into an universally acceptable ranking. Waiting for breakthroughs, which might open the technological path towards sustainability, social paths have to be undertaken.

The presentation will discuss what analysts should derive from their systems analyses, in order open a dialogue with the public at large, making use of some public participation methods developed so far by social scientists.

Keywords: energy–environment scenarios, technical–economic models, long–term, public participation methods, social sciences

Corresponding author: GianCarlo Tosato

Short- and Long-term Scenarios for Nuclear Energy: Closing the gap

Ferenc L. TOTH and Hans-Holger ROGNER
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vienna, AUSTRIA

Many scenarios published in recent years explore the driving forces and assess plausible ranges of global energy use and the resources they draw on. Some scenarios focus on the next decade or two and project the evolution of world energy demand, supply, and the resources, technologies and prices to match them. Other scenarios explore the long term with a view to resource availability and depletion, technological transformations, or environmental concerns, predominantly climate change. A persistent gap can be observed in the projections for nuclear energy: near-term scenarios typically project a flat or slightly declining contribution of nuclear energy to the world energy supply whereas medium- and long-term scenarios anticipate significant increases. The presentation (and the ensuing paper) explores the analytical frameworks and the underlying assumptions to explain this apparent gap. It offers possible approaches to close the gap and establish consistency between short- and long-term global energy projections.

Keywords: global energy resources, scenarios, energy technologies, nuclear energy

Corresponding author: Ferenc Toth

Climate Change and Security of Energy Supply: Long-term Synergies and Trade-offs

Hal TURTON^a, Leonardo BARRETO^b
aEnvironmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Program International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, AUSTRIA
^bEnergy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), Villigen, SWITZERLAND

Security of energy supply and climate change are central concerns for policy makers and important dimensions of the long-term quest for a sustainable global energy system. In this analysis we use the multi-regional energy-systems and technology model ERIS to examine the role of several policy instruments in managing security and climate risks and stimulating technological change towards a more sustainable global energy system in the long-term future. Our analysis provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for security of supply policies to reduce the cost of pursuing climate change mitigation policies, promote the uptake of new technologies, and facilitate a possible transition to a hydrogen economy.

Keywords: climate change, security of supply, technological change

Corresponding author: Hal Turton

Prospects for Renewables in a CO2 Constrained World

Fridtjof UNANDER, Dolf GIELEN, Niclas MATTSSON
International Energy Agency (IEA), Paris , FRANCE

The IEA has updated its renewables policy analysis, based on the Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) model. This presentation will discuss the future role of renewable energy vs. other options in meeting CO2 policy targets in the electricity sector, with special emphasis on CO2 capture and storage. The importance of renewables technology learning and the choice between deployment and R&D strategies will be elaborated. Sensitivity and scenario analysis results provide insights regarding the best policy strategy. The analysis shows that technology prospects differ by world region. Therefore a regionalised approach is needed for proper analysis of cost-effective emission mitigation strategies.

Keywords: renewables, policy analysis, modeling, ETP, technology learning

Corresponding author: Fridtjof Unander

The impact of variable-length time periods in long-term modeling with World-TIMES

Kathleen VAILLANCOURT^a, Amit KANUDIA^b
aGroup for Research in Decision Analysis (GERAD), Montreal, Quebec, CANADA
^bKanORS Consulting Inc., Montreal, CANADA

TIMES is a techno-economic linear programming model, based on the MARKAL and EFOM approach, which has several important new features like variable-length time periods. The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of different definitions of time periods on the decisions taken by the model. We use several time period configurations, on the 2100 horizon, to model base and carbon-constrained scenarios with the world-TIMES model. We present energy and emission results for the 15 regions of the model.

Keywords: World-TIMES, long-term modeling, emission scenarios, variable-length periods

Corresponding author: Kathleen Vaillancourt

Uncertainty of Air Pollution Cost Estimates: To What Extent Does It Matter?

Ari RABL^a, Joseph SPADARO^a, Bob van der ZWAAN^bc
aCentre d’Energétique, Ecole des Mines, Paris, FRANCE
^bPolicies Studies Department, ECN, Energy research Centre of the Netherlands, Petten, The NETHERLANDS
^cJohn F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge MA, USA

How large is the social cost penalty if one makes the wrong choice because of uncertainties in the estimates of the costs and benefits of environmental policy measures? For discrete choices there is no general rule other than the recommendation to always carefully compare costs and benefits when introducing policies for environmental protection. For continuous choices (e.g., the ceiling for the total emissions of a pollutant by an entire sector or region), it is instructive to look at the cost penalty as a function of the error in the incremental damage cost estimate. Using abatement cost curves for NOx, SO2, dioxins, and CO2, this paper evaluates the cost penalty for errors in the following: national emission ceilings for NOx and SO2 in each of 12 countries of Europe, an emission ceiling for dioxins in the UK, and limits for the emission of CO2 in Europe. The cost penalty turns out to be remarkably insensitive to errors. An error by a factor of 3 due to uncertainties in the damage estimates for NOx and SO2 increases the total social cost by at most 20% and in most cases much less. For dioxins, the total social cost is increased by at most 10%. For CO2, several different possible cost curves are examined: for some the sensitivity to uncertainties is greater than for the other pollutants, but even here the penalty is less than 30% and in most case much less if the true damage costs are twice as high as the ones estimated. The paper also quantifies the benefit of improving the accuracy of damage cost estimates by further research.

Keywords: Uncertainty, social cost, damage cost, air pollution, climate change
Published in Environmental Science and Technology, 39(2): 399-408, 2005.

Corresponding author: Bob van der Zwaan

Post-Kyoto Climate Negotiations: A Dynamic Game Approach Focusing on Developing and Oil Exporting Countries

Laurent Viguier^a, Marc VIELLE^b, Alain HAURIE^c, Alain BERNARD^d
aHEC Geneva and Swiss federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, SWITZERLAND
^bCEA-LEERNA, University of Social Sciences, Toulouse, FRANCE
^cHEC Geneva, Geneva, SWITZERLAND
^dMinistry of Equipment, Transport, and Housing, Paris, FRANCE

The enlargement of the climate coalition to developing countries in post-Kyoto negotiations will be a difficult task. Most of developing countries are opposed to any commitment regarding absolute emissions caps as long as industrialized countries do not make real progress toward the actual goal of cutting their GHG emissions. Oil exporting countries, in particular those belonging to OPEC, would obviously challenge any agreement that does not take into account a mechanism aiming at compensate the welfare loss incurred through change in the terms of trade.

In that context, one should imagine a climate architecture that would create incentives toward developing and oil exporting countries participation. In this paper, a dynamic game is formulated where the players are developing countries that may choose to enter a Post-Kyoto agreement, and the payoffs are the welfare gains of these countries, evaluated from a multi-country computable general equilibrium model (GEMINI-E3). We find that some developing countries might accept GHG emission caps as long as they can participate an emission trading regime.

Keywords: Climate Change, Welfare Cost, Equity, Terms of Trade, Cournot Equilibrium
JEL classification: C8, C31, D1, D58, D6

Corresponding author: Laurent Viguier

Toyota’s Environmental Challenge - Toward Sustainable Mobility

Hiroyuki WATANABE
Toyota Motor Corporation, Tokyo, JAPAN

To look back on automobile history, technology innovation and paradigm change in the market led to motorization. Satisfied with the basic human desire for mobility, world vehicle numbers will increase. Hence, it will be too difficult to fulfill environmental and mobility desires together. To deal with the environmental impact, we need overall activities concerning automobile technology, fuel, infrastructure, and people.

For these issues, Toyota will introduce the technology innovation of hybrid vehicles and FC vehicle development. Especially, I will suggest the issues for our future in the hydrogen society. And I also refer to the future automobile mode.

Keywords: hybrid technology, fuel cell, life cycle assessment, sustainable mobility, technology innovation

Corresponding author: Hiroyuki Watanabe

Analysis of the Energy System by Energy Model Formulated as Multi-agent Simulation

Yumiko WATANABE, Takeshi SHINOHARA, Taketo HAYASHI, Yasuamsa FUJII, Kenji YAMAJI
University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JAPAN

We introduce our global energy model formulated as multi-agent simulation based on reinforcement learning. Since conventional energy supply models were formulated as minimizing the total energy supply cost in the target area, it was very difficult on this model to consider the situation with conflicting interests. In our new model, agents such as nations and industries can charge energy premium prices on their exports or impose duties on their imports to minimize their energy system cost. We calculate by this model their optimal strategies and analyze energy prices and energy supply system on that occasion.

Keywords: energy model, multi-agent simulation, reinforcement learning

Corresponding author: Yumiko Watanabe

An E3 Econometric analysis of CDM and Technology Transfer between Japan and China

Mitsuo YAMADA
Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, AUSTRIA and Department of Economics, Chukyo University, JAPAN

China is trying to attain the trade-off targets of economic development and global environment improvement, thought it is not obliged under the Kyoto Protocol. Japan has already built an energy efficient society and the compliance of the Kyoto Protocol only with domestic efforts seems difficult. So, the usage of Kyoto mechanism is attractive to Japan. Developing an economy-energy-environment (E3) econometric model of China and Japan, both linked, we analyze the effect of CDM and technology transfer between China and Japan for next 30 years. Some scenario analyses are constructed on Kyoto protocol, especially the possible CDM projects, considering after Kyoto.

Keyword: E3 econometric model, China and Japan, CDM, technology transfer

Corresponding author: Mitsuo Yamada

Hiromi YAMAMOTO
Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI) and the University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JAPAN

The author re-arranged the damage functions developed in RICE model, using the concept of 'measure functions and oncoming functions', and conducted integrated analyses of global warming using the modified damage functions and analyzed the results using a cost-loss-table (CL table). In the results, they will not be able to avoid the catastrophic damages when they use the damage functions in RICE model. An option of no measure will pay the zero measure cost but the highest loss of the global warming. A measure option using the damage function that supposes the catastrophic impact will happen will pay the highest measure cost but the lowest loss.

Keywords:Integrated assessment model, Global environmental damages, Decision-making, Uncertainty, Catastrophic impacts

Corresponding author: Hiromi Yamamoto

Kei YAMASHITA, Yasuyuki ENDO, Shinya ICHIOKA, Ikuo NISHIMURA
Tokyo Electric Power Company, Tokyo, JAPAN

Heat pump technology is considered to be one of the most promising measures for CO2 abatement strategy in Japan. We have developed a diffusion model of demand side technologies in residential sector in Japan, which can examine changes in total energy consumption by penetration of improving technologies and learning effects of innovative technologies, such as fuel cell and heat pump water heater. Using this model, we estimated the potential reduction in CO2 emission from Japanese residential sector for short- to medium- term, making a parametric analysis about learning rates, technological improvement rates, etc, to find out effective measures for CO2 reduction.

Keywords: air conditioner, heat pump water heater, diffusion model, learning effect

Corresponding author: Kei Yamashita

Long-term Evaluation on CO2 Mitigation and Primary Energy Conservation Effects of Co-Generation System in Japan with an Econometric Model

Miki YANAGI^a, Ryoichi KOMIYAMA^a, Tetsuji TOMITA^a, Toshiya IMAEDA^b, Kokichi ITO^a
aThe Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), Tokyo, JAPAN
^bToho Gas Co., Ltd., Nagoya, JAPAN

This paper aims to estimate the installation potential of Co-Generation System, which is expected to contribute to future CO2 mitigation and energy conservation, in Japan with an econometric model up to year 2020. This model explicitly evaluates the influence of these Co-Generation Systems on Japan’s energy structure in a consistent way employing both an econometric model and an optimal power generation mix model. In Japan, the installed capacity of Co-Generation Systems accounted for only 6.5 MW in 2002. With considerable uncertainty remaining concerning various assumptions in this model, installation is preliminarily predicted around 10.3 MW in 2020, which eventually contributes to both energy conservation and CO2 mitigation, and promotes shift for gas in Japan’s primary energy mix based on this calculation.

Keywords: Co-Generation System, CO2 emissions, Energy conservation, econometric approach, End-use model

Corresponding author: Miki Yanagi

We present an analysis of the potential energy and environmental implications of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (H2-FCV) penetration into the U.S. light duty vehicle fleet by 2030. Sensitivity analysis is used to identify the inputs with the greatest influence on H2-FCV adoption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Sectoral and system-wide energy use under different baseline assumptions are compared. Uncertainty analysis methods are used to characterize output uncertainty. Our results suggest that whether H2-FCV penetration leads to reductions in system-wide energy use and carbon emissions is dependent on the technological pathway and baseline to which the pathway is compared.

Keywords: integrated analysis, Monte Carlo, endogenous technological learning, probabilistic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

Corresponding author: Sonia Yeh