12 - IIASA Conference '07 on Global Development - 14-15 November 2007

Nebojsa Nakicenovic

The Changing World: Energy, Climate and Social Futures

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Lecture Summary

Humanity is on the brink of a grand transition comparable with the agricultural and industrial revolutions two centuries ago—one that will transform the fabric of societies and establish new techno-economic paradigms. The exact dynamics and direction of change, however, are elusive. Professor Nakicenovic explains IIASA’s use of scenarios as “future histories” to assess the deep uncertainties associated with the wide range of plausible future developments, their consequences, possible tipping points, and response strategies. IIASA is one of the leaders in this area of futures research and its most recent set of stabilization scenarios outlines greenhouse gas mitigation strategies, technology needs, structural changes, and possible policy levers. Professor Nakicenovic also shows that much greater investment is needed in such research and diffusion of advanced technologies to achieve more sustainable futures.

Speaker Biography

Nebojsa Nakicenovic is Leader of IIASA’s Energy and Transitions to New Technologies Programs, Co-Leader of IIASA's Greenhouse Gas Initiative, Professor of Energy Economics at the Vienna University of Technology, and Director of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA). He is also an Associate Editor of the International Journal on Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Editor of International Journal on Energy and Climate Policy, Member of Editorial Board of the International Journal of Energy Sector Management, a Coordinating Lead Author of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, and Coordinating Lead Author of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.

Prof. Nakicenovic was Director, Global Energy Perspectives, WEC (1993 to 1998), Convening Lead Author of the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (1993 to 1995), Convening Lead Author of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (1997 to 2000), Lead Author of Third Assessment Report of the IPCC (1999 to 2001), Convening Lead Author of the World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability (1999 to 2000), and Guest Professor at the Technical University of Graz (1993 to 2003).

He first joined IIASA in 1973 to work in the Energy Systems Program on long-term, global energy prospects; from 1984 he worked in the Science and Technology Program on the restructuring of the global automotive industry; from 1986 on the dynamics of technological and social change in the Technology, Economy and Society Program as Acting Program Leader and as Leader of the Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Project from 1991 to 2000.

Prof. Nakicenovic holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees in economics and computer science from Princeton University, New Jersey, USA and the University of Vienna, where he also completed his Ph.D. He also holds a Ph.D. (honoris causa) in engineering from the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Among Prof. Nakicenovic’s research interests are the long-term patterns of technological change, economic development and response to climate change and, in particular, the evolution of energy, mobility, information and communication technologies. Currently, his research focuses on the diffusion of new technologies and their interactions with the society and the environment. He is author and coauthor of many scientific papers and books on the dynamics of technological and social change, economic restructuring and development, mitigation of anthropogenic impacts on the environment and on response strategies to global change.

Additional information can be found in Marquis Who’s Who in Science and Engineering and Who’s Who in the World.

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Last updated: 03 Apr 2009