09 - Foundations of Modeling Seminar - 07 August 2007

Marek Makowski

Modeling Practice: Opportunities and Pitfalls

Listen [MP3 57:59]

Lecture Summary

Success comes from making the right decision at the right time. Rational decisions need to be based on a combination of knowledge, preferences, and intuition. Part of the knowledge pertinent to making correct decisions can be represented by mathematical models; these not only help to analyze the relations between the decisions and the resulting outcomes, but also facilitate identification of those decisions that correspond best to the preferences of the Decision Maker. Desire for success is one of the oldest driving forces; thus modeling has a guaranteed future, provided it contributes more to success than to failure.

Appropriate models help to integrate knowledge relevant to understanding complex problems, and to create knowledge pertinent to finding rational solutions to these problems. Poorly developed models, however, may cause more harm than help. There are countless publications documenting successful modeling stories – and many, too – that present various modeling paradigms, techniques, and tools. Much less attention is paid to modeling failures and limitations. The seminar aims at discussing both opportunities and pitfalls.

The presentation will focus on good modeling practice and modern mathematical tools that support the whole modeling cycle composed of:

• understanding a (possibly complex) problem and selecting an appropriate modeling paradigm,
• symbolic model specification,
• data management,
• integrated model analysis, and
• documentation of the modeling process.

A range of modeling paradigms will be characterized, examples of pitfalls will be discussed, and diverse methods of model analysis will be summarized. No prior knowledge on modeling is assumed; however, also experienced modelers will most likely find the seminar interesting.

Speaker Biography

Dr. Marek Makowski holds an Engineer and a Master of Science degree in the field of automatic control and computer sciences from the Warsaw University of Technology. He also studied mathematics at Warsaw University. Dr. Makowski received his Ph.D. in 1976 from the Polish Academy of Sciences for his thesis on the optimization of environmental models.

Currently the leader of IIASA's Integrated Modeling Environment project, Marek has been with IIASA since 1987, when he joined the Computer Services department to work on the development and application of mathematical programming software. Other IIASA affiliations have included Acting Project Leader of the Methodology of Decision Analysis (MDA) Project and Senior Research Scholar in the Risk, Modeling and Society (RMS) Program.

More information about Marek, including his CV and list of publications, is available on Marek's home page.

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Last updated: 03 Apr 2009