Introduction
World Population Prospects

What is this paper about? This electronic document (which is also available in print as IIASA working paper WP-96-146) analyzes the most recent UN population assessments and projections (the 1996 edition), conducted by the United Nations Population Division, New York. Its main objective is to cut through the maze of available data and identify ten demographic trends which are most relevant for studying global (land-use) change.

The future number of people on the globe, evidently, is an important antropogenic factor of global change. However, even more important, will be their spatial distribution. This paper will emphasize the projected massive shift in population from the developed countries of Europe and Northern America to the future population giants of Asia and Africa. It will identify those countries that will add the largest number of people to the globe between now and 2050. We will also identify countries and regions that had the highest growth rates in the past. In a second chapter some methodological issues will be discussed - such as the question, whether probabilistic projections or scenario methods could improve the predictive capability of population projections. The final chapter of the document deals with issues that are often considered limiting factors of global population growth: food and epidemic disease (especially AIDS).

Which data sources were used? The main data source are preliminary tables from the 1996 edition of the "World Population Prospects" (Annex I and II) to be published by the United Nations Population Division in early 1997 (United Nations, 1997). These tables were available to the author in draft form. We have also used the most recent "World Population Profile: 1996" which is prepared in the International Programs Center of the United States Bureau of the Census Population Division (US Bureau of the Census, 1996). The third data source are the "IIASA Population Scenarios" and the "IIASA Probabilistic Population Projections Based On Expert Opinions" prepared by the IIASA Population Project (Lutz, 1996).
Design of electronic version This WWW version of this working paper was designed by the author.